To expand on a point in my recent @StatedClearly interview:
"Science cannot be embodied by one person or even a group of people... It’s not something where a pandemic happens and only virologists can have the answer."
@StatedClearly That SARS-CoV-2 spreads through the air is perhaps one of the top 3 most important facts that needed & still needs to be acknowledged to limit covid spread.
It would've saved potentially millions of lives if this simple fact had been clearly explained to the world in early 2020.
Yet, it took until August 2021, more than a year and a half post-covid for a review on this topic to be published in a prominent scientific journal.
Of the 7 authors, only 1 is a virologist. The majority are aerosol or bioengineering experts. science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
I think it is worth a deeper examination to understand why it took global health authorities so long to acknowledge such a simple fact about the virus - so that in the future, we don't make the same mistakes.
Top epidemiologists & virologists insisted most transmission occurs through close contact, that there wasn't evidence of airborne transmission.
In May 2021, @zeynep one of the authors of the #COVIDisAirborne papers wrote in @nytimes about the challenges of getting this basic fact through to health authorities and ensuring that it had impact on their public health policy. nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opi…
@zeynep@nytimes "A member of the W.H.O. committees that craft infection prevention and control guidance.. knew the stakes made it harder to overcome the resistance."
Examining #COVIDIsAirborne “will cause an enormous shudder through the infection control society.”
"Many of the experts [WHO] enlisted to form the Covid-19 I.P.C. Guidance Development Group were hospital-focused.. specialized in antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections that can spread wildly in health care facilities when medical personnel fail to regularly wash their hands."
On top of having to counter the group-think occurring among the experts enlisted by @WHO who focused on hand washing, those saying that #COVIDIsAirborne had to face "a higher standard of proof for theories that challenge conventional wisdom than for those that support it."
@WHO In short, at the beginning of a crisis, there are a handful of experts whose judgment and public verdicts are taken almost at face value, and it is exceedingly difficult to challenge them afterwards even as evidence accumulates in opposition to their stance.
@WHO In the future, to prevent similar tragedies from occurring, expertise should be drawn from various fields and from experts who don't have a history of working with each other, i.e., not from the same circles, not co-authors or colleagues, not in the same institution or country.
When you tap into experts who believe they and friends "represent science" or are the only people qualified to pass judgment on a novel pathogen, this results in a dangerous echo chamber where public expression of disagreement among experts is disincentivized.
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In short, these scientists speculated that what we see in SARS-CoV-2 is not how a scientist would logically engineer a novel S1/S2 FCS into a SARSr-CoV and they contended that there is no evidence of research at the WIV that artificially inserted complete FCSs into coronaviruses.
Hi @richardhorton1@TheLancet the live virus recombinant SARSrCoV work was done at BSL2 at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
"they defended what they believed were rigorous administrative and supervisory systems in China's high-level biosafety settings" thelancet.com/journals/lance…
@richardhorton1@TheLancet If you believe performing infection experiments with live novel, recombinant SARS-like viruses at BSL2 equates to rigorous, high-level biosafety settings, please see this lab leak of SARS2 from a BSL3, infecting a fully vaccinated worker in her 20s. taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4372853
"Were those who believed that evidence was growing in favour of a lab leak now winning the argument? Was this really the end of the story? Of course not."
An addendum to the Proximal Origin letter published in @NatureMedicine is long overdue. I still see people citing this paper with little awareness of how this letter came to be and problems with both its origin and content. nature.com/articles/s4159…
The addendum should clearly explain and address the following 3 issues:
1. Proximal Origin was the product of a private meeting in Feb 2020 among Western leaders in research/funding. Phone call Feb 1. First draft of Proximal Origin Feb 4.
Experts who provided (redacted) feedback on the manuscript were not acknowledged in the @NatureMedicine letter. The only expert thanked for contributing to discussions is M. Farzan.
A strawman argument from natural #OriginOfCovid proponents is that scientists would've engineered a textbook cleavage site into novel SARS-like viruses in the lab.
But, if you read their research proposal, the scientists said they would engineer in rare, novel cleavage sites.
The scientists had a pipeline in early 2018 for detecting never-seen-before cleavage sites in rare SARSrCoVs & engineering these into SARSrCoVs in the lab.
There's no reason why novel cleavage sites should look like the ones in our textbooks.
Lots of buzz about the new preprint about rare furin cleavage sites in the spikes of European bat SARS-like viruses. Difficult to say much until the spike sequences obtained within this study are deposited in GenBank and released. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
It is likely that scientists on the other side of the world had encountered similar rare furin cleavage sites in the SARS-like viruses they had found, which led them to write the following in the 2018 DEFUSE proposal:
"We will also review deep sequence data for low abundant high risk SARSr-CoV that encode functional proteolytic cleavage sites, and if so, introduce these changes into the appropriate high abundant, low risk parental strain."
And he's in great company! Several top virologists have expressed that a genetically engineered origin of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible and should be investigated.
We know that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had access to bat pathogen samples in Laos, from the emails and research reports FOIA'ed and from their very own data deposited in NCBI.