Its possible for the following 2 things to be true :

1. Vaccines appear to be safe for most people, and appear to be effective in reducing the burden of severe disease

2. mRNA vaccines are associated with myocarditis (the CDC agrees : tinyurl.com/kfj9kc9y)
Much of the debate from mostly non-cardiologists focuses on "mildness" of vaxx-myocarditis, and risk of myocarditis from Sars-COV2 (COVID).
Some thoughts :
1st - multiple datasets beyond the much maligned VAERS report links vaccines with
myocarditis
Israeli Study: Notice uptick after 2nd shot.
"Most cases were mild or moderate in severity, but one patient had cardiogenic shock, and one patient with preexisting cardiac disease died of an unknown cause soon after hospital discharge."
tinyurl.com/hd3nrbun
Military study: (where vaccine mandates are in effect)
Baseline rates of myocarditis are difficult to precisely ascertain, but authors of this paper were very liberal, and even then observed cases >> expected after 2nd dose.

tinyurl.com/3xwvswhf
Vaccine related myocarditis is associated with a significant leak of cardiac enzymes from the heart (as presented to the vaccine advisory committee - VRBPAC).

tinyurl.com/2p8hk43x

Btw, look at how small enzyme leak is with potentially SarsCOV2 caused MIS-C
Vaccine myocarditis is associated with a reduction in function of the heart that appears to rapidly normalize, but MRI findings of patients suggest the formation of scar after vaccine myocarditis are similar to findings in non-vaccine myocarditis.
tinyurl.com/yckjbs34
Limited long term follow up at present, but early evidence suggests about one-third of patients with vaccine myocarditis have evidence of scar/fibrosis in 3 month follow up.

We do not know the long term significance of this.
Generally the presence of scar in the heart (LGE on a cardiac MRI) is a powerful prognosticator of adverse outcome in myocarditis and clinically suspected myocarditis, irrespective of LVEF.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32040731/
Importantly, the literature on prognosis to date is from the experience of classic myocarditis, scar post conventional heart attacks which are both more severe clinically. We can be hopeful that vaxx myocarditis has a more benign prognosis, but cannot say for sure right now.
It has been suggested that the risk of myocarditis from Sars-COV2 is higher than the risk of myocarditis from the mRNA vaxx, but this is not certain. The real world experience doesn't fit this (cardiology clinics hv not been flooded) &..
The CDC estimate of Sars-COV2 myocarditis is almost definitely off by many orders of magnitude because they got the denominator wrong in their CDC report.. See thread:

For the TL/DR folks .. when u r rigorous with how myocarditis is defined (require imaging/lab criteria, not just a billing code) u get this graph which fits w/ reality.. No uptick in myocarditis cases in cardiology clinics until after the vaxx rollout. tinyurl.com/2p8v92em
Summarizing:
1. Vaxx related myocarditis is a potentially serious medical condition that can lead to damage/fibrosis in heart muscle
2. Fibrosis and scarring found within the heart muscle can lead 2long term complications related to cardiac arrhythmias & even sudden cardiac death
3. It is not yet known what the long term sequelae will be for those patients that have developed scarring and fibrosis related to vaccine myocarditis.
4. Rates of mRNA vax myocarditis in certain sub populations likely exceed the risks from SARS-Cov2 associated myocarditis.

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More from @anish_koka

18 Dec
A quick word about Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE). Must say, there is nothing to suggest this is operative at present with Sars-COV2 or the vaccines for it, but the historical context is very interesting!
ADE occurs when the antibodies generated during an immune response recognize and bind to a pathogen, but instead of preventing infection, the complex allows easier access of the pathogen into the cell.

When vaccinated individuals fall ill this is but one possibility..
The other possibilities are :
1. A mild illness (evidence the vaccine worked to prevent more severe disease
2. A breakthrough (a term normally used to describe severe illness that results even after a vaccine, which cld mean the vaxx didnt work, didnt generate enough antibodies)
Read 9 tweets
4 Dec
Appreciate the conversation with @Jabaluck

The TL/DR version

RCTs are attractive for divining cause and effect because randomization is supposed to deal with confounders
@Jabaluck acknowledges the concern about effective randomization because the survey teams that enrolled participants were more motivated to enroll patients in villages randomized to masks. [~14,000 more Pts were in the mask intervention than control.]
This imbalance creates a potential fundamental problem because the 1º endpoint (symptomatic sero positive patients) only differed by a total of 20 cases in the 10,000 out of 300,000 patients that were convinced to give blood samples.
Read 16 tweets
25 Nov
Again kudos to @beenwrekt for taking the trouble to find out what the raw numbers actually were in the Bangladesh mask RCT that’s been used in court to support school mask mandates.

The difference between the raw data and what was presented in the Preprint is striking 1/
Here is the verbiage from the study —> an 11% relative risk reduction in symptomatic seroprevalence with the treatment group that was given surgical masks,
The tables to support these words are here ..

The authors could have chosen to give us the actual raw numbers of symptomatic sero positives in treatment vs control, but instead we get interventional prevalence ratios and interventional coefficients ..

But they don’t.
Read 7 tweets
24 Nov
Appreciate authors of the 🇧🇩 RCT finally releasing raw data.

Dismayed at their topline conclusion on mask effectiveness that generated so much buzz

Out of ~340,000 ppl in mask and control arm.. the difference in symptomatic cases was 20 over 8 weeks.

benjamin-recht.github.io/2021/11/23/mas…
Brief summary for those interested. Bangladesh mask was a cluster RCT, (cluster because unit of randomization was a village) Treatment group had public policy intervention to increase use of masks, Control group was basically a poorly enforced govt. mask mandate)
Per pre-print 342,126 individuals in study. Endpoint was COVID 19 +ve symptoms AND positive antibodies.
Key Table shows of ~150k pts in each arm, blood samples could only be collect from ~5k patients in each arm.

poverty-action.org/sites/default/…
Read 14 tweets
23 Nov
Trying to make sense of all things COVID with @VPrasadMDMPH

What does Foucault have to do with COVID epistemology, you ask?

Listen to find out :)
The strongest case I’ve heard for vaccinating kids against COVID : @DrPaulOffit (Part 1)
accadandkoka.com/episodes/episo…
Important considerations for parents choosing to vaccinate their kids. Cody Meissner : Chief of peds ID, VRBPAC member.

Not as easy a decision as some would suggest..

accadandkoka.com/episodes/episo…
Read 7 tweets
17 Oct
I did appreciate the conversation, but it’s telling that one of the main data points @drsanjaygupta , chief medical correspondent @CNN ,chose to educate @joerogan on probably isn’t correct.

Here’s the citation/claim about COVID myocarditis cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Pretty simple math : (myocarditis diagnosed / ppl with Covid) was found to be 16x higher than (myocarditis diagnosed / ppl without COVID)

But did the study get the denominator of people who had COVID right?
Ppl with COVID was based on those who received a diagnosis of COVID-19 in an encounter w/ the health system.

That mild cold the 5 year old had that u didn’t call anyone about?

Not included in the denominator per this CDC reported.
Read 19 tweets

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