A quick word about Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE). Must say, there is nothing to suggest this is operative at present with Sars-COV2 or the vaccines for it, but the historical context is very interesting!
ADE occurs when the antibodies generated during an immune response recognize and bind to a pathogen, but instead of preventing infection, the complex allows easier access of the pathogen into the cell.

When vaccinated individuals fall ill this is but one possibility..
The other possibilities are :
1. A mild illness (evidence the vaccine worked to prevent more severe disease
2. A breakthrough (a term normally used to describe severe illness that results even after a vaccine, which cld mean the vaxx didnt work, didnt generate enough antibodies)
It is possible to get ADE from an actual pathogen. The Dengue virus has 4 serotypes, an infxn with 1 serotype can generate antibodies that when complexed with a 2nd serotype, don't prevent disease, but allow easier access of the 2nd serotype into cells
Vaccines have caused ADEs in the past as well. Historical versions of RSV and Measles vaccines both caused ADEs and were pulled from the market. The most recent ADE experience comes from the Dengue vaccine.
2016: A dengue vaccine is made to protect against all 4 serotypes at once to hopefully mitigate the known ADE that happens with the Dengue virus. The vaccine was given to 800,000 children in the Philippines. 14 vaccinated children died after encountering Dengue in the community
It is believed ADE was why this happened. The vaccine is now only recommended for children > 9 years old who have been exposed to the virus.
Important: At the moment experts don't believe there is evidence of ADE with Sars-COV2 or its vaccines. Prior infected individuals don't have worse outcomes when they come into contact with Sars-COV2 again & vaccinated ppl exposed to the virus mostly have had a mild course
But this doesn't mean its not a concern for the future with this virus, or future viruses/vaccines to come.

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More from @anish_koka

18 Dec
Its possible for the following 2 things to be true :

1. Vaccines appear to be safe for most people, and appear to be effective in reducing the burden of severe disease

2. mRNA vaccines are associated with myocarditis (the CDC agrees : tinyurl.com/kfj9kc9y)
Much of the debate from mostly non-cardiologists focuses on "mildness" of vaxx-myocarditis, and risk of myocarditis from Sars-COV2 (COVID).
Some thoughts :
1st - multiple datasets beyond the much maligned VAERS report links vaccines with
myocarditis
Israeli Study: Notice uptick after 2nd shot.
"Most cases were mild or moderate in severity, but one patient had cardiogenic shock, and one patient with preexisting cardiac disease died of an unknown cause soon after hospital discharge."
tinyurl.com/hd3nrbun
Read 14 tweets
4 Dec
Appreciate the conversation with @Jabaluck

The TL/DR version

RCTs are attractive for divining cause and effect because randomization is supposed to deal with confounders
@Jabaluck acknowledges the concern about effective randomization because the survey teams that enrolled participants were more motivated to enroll patients in villages randomized to masks. [~14,000 more Pts were in the mask intervention than control.]
This imbalance creates a potential fundamental problem because the 1º endpoint (symptomatic sero positive patients) only differed by a total of 20 cases in the 10,000 out of 300,000 patients that were convinced to give blood samples.
Read 16 tweets
25 Nov
Again kudos to @beenwrekt for taking the trouble to find out what the raw numbers actually were in the Bangladesh mask RCT that’s been used in court to support school mask mandates.

The difference between the raw data and what was presented in the Preprint is striking 1/
Here is the verbiage from the study —> an 11% relative risk reduction in symptomatic seroprevalence with the treatment group that was given surgical masks,
The tables to support these words are here ..

The authors could have chosen to give us the actual raw numbers of symptomatic sero positives in treatment vs control, but instead we get interventional prevalence ratios and interventional coefficients ..

But they don’t.
Read 7 tweets
24 Nov
Appreciate authors of the 🇧🇩 RCT finally releasing raw data.

Dismayed at their topline conclusion on mask effectiveness that generated so much buzz

Out of ~340,000 ppl in mask and control arm.. the difference in symptomatic cases was 20 over 8 weeks.

benjamin-recht.github.io/2021/11/23/mas…
Brief summary for those interested. Bangladesh mask was a cluster RCT, (cluster because unit of randomization was a village) Treatment group had public policy intervention to increase use of masks, Control group was basically a poorly enforced govt. mask mandate)
Per pre-print 342,126 individuals in study. Endpoint was COVID 19 +ve symptoms AND positive antibodies.
Key Table shows of ~150k pts in each arm, blood samples could only be collect from ~5k patients in each arm.

poverty-action.org/sites/default/…
Read 14 tweets
23 Nov
Trying to make sense of all things COVID with @VPrasadMDMPH

What does Foucault have to do with COVID epistemology, you ask?

Listen to find out :)
The strongest case I’ve heard for vaccinating kids against COVID : @DrPaulOffit (Part 1)
accadandkoka.com/episodes/episo…
Important considerations for parents choosing to vaccinate their kids. Cody Meissner : Chief of peds ID, VRBPAC member.

Not as easy a decision as some would suggest..

accadandkoka.com/episodes/episo…
Read 7 tweets
17 Oct
I did appreciate the conversation, but it’s telling that one of the main data points @drsanjaygupta , chief medical correspondent @CNN ,chose to educate @joerogan on probably isn’t correct.

Here’s the citation/claim about COVID myocarditis cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Pretty simple math : (myocarditis diagnosed / ppl with Covid) was found to be 16x higher than (myocarditis diagnosed / ppl without COVID)

But did the study get the denominator of people who had COVID right?
Ppl with COVID was based on those who received a diagnosis of COVID-19 in an encounter w/ the health system.

That mild cold the 5 year old had that u didn’t call anyone about?

Not included in the denominator per this CDC reported.
Read 19 tweets

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