“The short doubling times seen with Omicron reinforce the value of going even harder, earlier and wider with any interventions than for Delta.” - Sage advice to Govt - generally grim prognosis in here
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
All this aimed at Christmas family gatherings, work parties that are still going on - NB this is Sage advice to Govt, not policy, yet.
Testing just before all gatherings, whole group/ family not attending if one tests positive etc
Significant spike in face mask usage in England (stayed high in Scotland and Wales)… cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…
From just-released Sage advice paper to Government… 👀

“Communications requesting changes to behaviour must… provide a clear rationale, and be delivered by trusted voices.” As “levels of trust” are “different” from “previous periods of high prevalence”
interesting range of uncertainty here - eg… severity of Omicron etc, pace of infection. Aims to show what tools under Govt control could impact, strength & length NPIs - earlier non-pharmaceutical interventions from 26/12 rather than 3/1 big impact assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

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More from @faisalislam

18 Dec
So a week ago FCDO officials briefed foreign journalists on record, correctly, that Govt was parking the ECJ red line on NI (there was another briefing to foreign journalists on this in Brussels) … it was then denied in a Cabinet Office statement and a tweet from Lord Frost.
Mail now says Lord Frost resigned a week ago but was persuaded to stay on till January…

Yesterday the row back on both the ECJ that had been denied (and the threat to invoke Article16 this year) was officially announced…

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
found the notion one set of officials would on record brief foreign journalists with material change in policy, and then domestic journalists had that denied by a different set of officials, v v strange. Not cited in Mail as reason but this is what was happening at time last week
Read 13 tweets
15 Dec
Headline rate of inflation for UK soars to 5.1% in November up from 4.2% the month before, highest rate for over a decade. It’s over two and. Half times above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

Driven by record petrol prices, used cars, clothes and food
13 year high on the ONS’ preferred CPIH measure which includes some account of prices for owner occupied housing..
Used car prices - pandemic effect from microprocessor shortages reducing supply of new cars, deflecting demand to used cars, at the same time facing a pool of forces saving from buyers….

This should turnaround at some point, when fields full of chip less cars are chipped
Read 8 tweets
14 Dec
Trade minister tours US states, amid little to no progress on US-UK trade deal, & UK-US steel tariffs dispute unsettled even after US-EU deal, implores US to “awaken” a “paradigm shift” in US response to UK leaving orbit of EU “to be closer to you [US]”..

gov.uk/government/spe…
UK Govt to US:

“[Brexit is] major geo-political event and it calls for an US response that recognises this moment and the opportunity..
We have made ourselves a player on the global chessboard..
Let future generations of Americans not say.. you failed to grasp that opportunity”
Speech underlines a rather important strategic paradox - that part of the rationale behind pursuing a clean/ hard break Brexit from the EU was to pursue closer relationship with US… but at best not a priority for US, at worst, contributing to currently worse outcome on steel…
Read 7 tweets
14 Dec
IMF chief @KGeorgieva says UK economy proved to be more resilient than expected after a difficult year with the pandemic and post Brexit adjustments… but inflation pressures will linger and “considerable” risks and uncertainties ahead
UK “has the fiscal space” should it be necessary to do more to support vulnerable people and business due to Omicron, IMF MD Georgieva says, and she “has no doubt” that Government will do so … says full lockdowns no longer needed, so nor would full lockdown supports
IMF MD Georgieva asked re impact of Brexit/ new trade deal on UK economy: “We have seen an impact on trade, trade with EU has dropped significantly, and we’d expect more impact ahead” as inward checks introduced next year…
Read 6 tweets
12 Dec
So basically if safety car comes out then whatever lead you have instantly evaporates? Ie no way verstappen catching Hamilton 12 secs in front before that… not sure I buy the michael Thomas 1989 analogy - more like being 2-0 down and then awarded two goals with one minute left…
This appears a better analogy… was Wolff right that Lewis would definitely have lost his place if he had also pitted?
Ah! Because verstappen makes pit decision knowing Lewis has already chosen too with nothing to lose - and following lap Lewis can’t do that because understandably fears race will end under the safety car - is that right?

Sorry F1 heads - seemed a bit random to this outsider
Read 7 tweets
10 Dec
👀 someone in UK Govt has been briefing the European media on record that the UK Govt has dropped its ECJ red line …. Rather significant change in tone. Deal in offing?
Here too… Someone wants a deal - world away from Article 16 if ECJ asks being parked quietly,..
European diplomats were saying earlier this month there was nothing to discuss as regards ECJ in any event…
Read 10 tweets

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