Quick unsolicited advice on what next after Frost. Three ways to do replacement if you are Number 10 - path they choose will tell you a lot about nature of political operation left in building 1/
Option one. Go with true believer Brexiteer from backbenches. Assuming someone willing to take the job, this will get you c.12 hours breathing space with latest incarnation of ERG and please some excitable folk. 2/
Won't work in long run because this Government is not going to invoke Article 16 next year - and nor should they in the short term. Cue resignation, WhatsApp bloodletting, compounding chaos 3/
Option Two. Go with largely anonymous safe pair of hands. Fine. But there's no political advance by doing this. And said individual will become target for those mourning Frost the man and myth. Compounding chaos again 4/
Ps on Frost man and myth, depending on your politics he seems this morning to be somewhere between Abraham Lincoln and over promoted booze lobbyist. Suspect neither caricature true - but fascinating to watch narratives nonetheless 5/
Option Three. Give it to the Foreign Secretary where arguably should reside. Triggering Article 16 somewhat more impactful decision than trade deal with Australia. Politically this helps Johnson because tests LT mettle with Brexit BBs and whether for real or just words 6/
Positive inflection for Team Truss is that it offers them platform to do something politically hard. she can conclude to satisfaction of both ERG and wider party then leadership is hers to lose 7/end
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Short Thread: general view among stepped out Tory apparatchiks for past year has been that Bojo operation hopeless but he'll probably get away with it because of teflon/Lab Scotland/Starmer bit uninspiring/COVID benefit of doubt/Tory papers look after ex member of chapel (1)
Generally in politics if something is too good to be true it normally is and doesn't last. I remember Theresa May's Reaganite numbers while watching catastrophe unfold on the ground floor of CCHQ in May '17 (2)
The notion of Johnson doing a decade like Thatcher has always seemed like a tall order. Not impossible - politics is different now and frankly not a deep bench of stardust on either side. But remember MT only started briefing 'on and on' post '87 when heading for her own curtain
It's normally a mistake in political comms to obsess about the slogan at the detriment of all else. If you want to use the slogan less, use it less and phase it out. Try not to brief that you are changing the slogan.
Show. Don't tell.
Messaging is an oil tanker and can't simply be turned round overnight.
For a few months in 2012-13, "Winning The Global Race" was the political slogan of the Conservative Party. Until research made clear that people found it unsettling and definitely not a vote winner (2)
The "Long Term Economic Plan" was the eventual replacement and ended up being trotted out by anyone with a blue rosette by election day 2015.
But it was never really launched as a new thing. It just gradually bled into everything the Conservative Party did and said (3)
The first 48 hrs in D Street are overwhelming for all new administrations. The start-up mentality of campaigning has to adapt quickly to the awesome complexity of governing.
There are two political decisions above all that this new administration will have to take in short order
Decision 1: what is your preferred Brexit outcome?
Is it leaving the European Union without a deal? This will be the inevitable consequence of axing the Irish border backstop entirely from the Withdrawal Agreement. As has been promised in this leadership campaign (2)
Or is it to perform some surface surgery on the backstop to make it more politically appealing? With an attendant sense of theatre and alchemy from the former Leader of Vote Leave who can communicate to the British people in a way his predecessor could not (3)
Johnson is evidently ticking the dealer in hope bit. But he is going to need one hell of a Downing Street operation around him not to get consumed in weeks. With the greatest respect, D St is not City Hall. The complexity and volume of decisions will be like nothing seen before.
The United Kingdom's system of Government works on written fiat - boxes done overnight and officials given their marching orders from the boss. Unless you are consistent, thoughtful and timely in your instructions, the system will grind to a halt (2/8)
It's possible to delegate it out and take more of a Chairman role - Number 10 will always flex to the personality of the principal. But you're going to need some form of elected representative as a Chief of Staff to do the paper on your behalf and have the legitimacy to do so 3
THREAD on why an election in the UK is not quite as fanciful as people think. This does not mean it is going to happen; but the risk of one is higher than commonly ascribed. My own preference is that Conservatives act sensibly and try and avoid it. Anyway, here we go (1/25)
Since June 2017 we have had a hung parliament in this country that cannot be brought to consensus on how to proceed on Brexit. The numbers do not work (2/25)
The Prime Minister’s strategy – such as it has existed – since the summer of last year has been that it will come right in the end because people will compromise when faced with the alternatives of a divisive second referendum or a disruptive No Deal (3/25)
NEW ESSAY QUESTION for future historians of Brexit. Was the hung Parliament of 2017 the real reason why the Irish border question proved insoluble? My answer - not necessarily but it certainly ensured there was no space to have realistic debates on the East-West dimension (1/25)
I put this argument forward with a lot of caution because it is easy for words to be misinterpreted and motives questioned. Twitter is not a university tutorial room. So I will proceed carefully (2/25)
It's common currency now in the Tory Party from the Prime Minister down to say that a customs border in the Irish Sea is unacceptable. In Theresa May's words, it is something no British Prime Minister would ever agree. It would say that NI is not an integral part of the UK (3/25)