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19 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
European natural gas traders are waiting for a cold snap that could see prices break new records 🥶 📈

Only a mild winter seems capable of alleviating the stress on the energy market as the world grapples with a fuel shortage

Via @rachelmorison

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The bad news:

The rest of December is set to be colder than usual and this will persist into January with widespread below average temperatures for the first two weeks ⛄️

Frigid cold weather means rolling blackouts could be a last resort ⚡️
Russian natural gas flows remain weak, exacerbating the supply crunch 🇷🇺

If Russian gas exports remain at current levels, Europe’s storage sites will be less than 15% full at the end of March, the lowest on record, according to consultant consultant Wood Mackenzie
European daily power prices for Monday surged due to colder-than-normal temperatures, sky-high gas prices and nuclear outages

🇪🇸 Spanish daily power prices rise to a record 339.84 euros
🇫🇷 French day-ahead jumps to highest since rare peak in 2009

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
19 Oct
Russia is willing to boost natural gas supplies to Europe, but only if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline receives regulatory approval to start shipments 🇷🇺 💥 🇪🇺

(Russia had long denied allegations that they were curbing supply in exchange for NS2 approval)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
In exchange for upping supplies, Russia wants to get German/EU approval to begin using the pipeline to Europe, according to people close to Gazprom and the Kremlin

Russia is unlikely to agree to up supplies without assurances that the new pipeline will be allowed to operate
“We’re fulfilling all our contracts, all our obligations. Everything on top of that should be a subject for additional voluntary and mutually beneficial agreements,” said Konstantin Kosachyov, a pro-Kremlin legislator, said in an interview, without specifying what Russia seeks
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
29 Sep
China, the world’s top coal consumer, is in dire need of more supply and is willing to pay any price 🇨🇳🪨

China has even been boosting coal imports from some of South Asia and Europe’s mainstay suppliers, leaving less fuel for energy-starved rivals

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China has traditionally purchased nearly all of its coal supplies from producers within Asia, but that changed last year when it stopped buying from Australia amid a political dispute between the once-close trading partners, leading to sporadic shortages

smh.com.au/business/marke…
While China mines half of the world’s coal, its supply hasn’t been able to keep up with its breakneck demand

Thermal power generation in the year through August is 14% higher than last year, while coal production is up only 4.4%. So they need more imports to fill the gap
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
28 Sep
Natural gas prices are SURGING around the world today 🚀📈

🇪🇺 Dutch TTF jumped as much as 12% to above 85 euros/MWh, a record high, after a drop in Russian supply
🇺🇸 US Henry Hub just topped $6/mmbtu for the first time since 2014
🇯🇵 JKM is above $30/mmbtu, a seasonal high
A good gas market meme

US natural gas prices have surged by more than 10% to as high as $6.280/mmbtu

A close at that level would be the highest settlement since Dec. 2018
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
27 Sep
European natural gas prices are again surging toward a record high 📈🚀

That's due in part to:

> Carbon futures hitting an all-time high as utilities turn to coal
> Seasonally low stockpiles, limited supply from Russia/Norway
> Robust Chinese LNG demand
> Uncertain wind output
EU benchmark carbon futures surged above 65 euros/ton for the first time ever as utilities seek coal supplies amid the global gas shortage
European coal futures for next-year delivery also surged to the highest since 2008 amid growing demand from the continent's utilities
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
27 Sep
This winter, the world will be fighting over a finite supply of natural gas 🥊

The energy crisis in Europe presages trouble for the rest of the planet as the continent’s gas shortage has governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇨🇳 China, the world’s top buyer of natural gas, hasn’t filled stockpiles fast enough, even though imports have surged in the last year

Several Chinese provinces are already rationing power, and gas shortages and frigid weather could exacerbate shutdowns

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇰🇷 While South Korea is largely protected by long-term LNG contracts that are indexed to oil, Korea Electric Power Co. said on Sept. 23 that it will increase electricity prices for the first time in almost eight years

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202109…
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
13 Sep
Europe’s energy crunch is deepening 🚨

With about a month to go before the start of the heating season, Europe doesn’t have enough natural gas in storage and isn’t building inventories fast enough either. Gas and power prices are hitting new records

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Europe is struggling to refill natural gas inventories, with flows from No. 2 supplier Norway currently limited due to maintenance

Top seller Russia is “is coming off an extended period of inexplicably low supply” at a time when US deliveries of LNG can’t be increased further
Bloomberg wrote in late-June that there just isn't enough natural gas to calm down the global rally in prices

TTF has DOUBLED since the article was published

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 6 tweets

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