Getting House & all but 1 same-party Senator on board with ~full plausible presidential agenda in 1st year is historically unusual progress. They won over the other key holdout. How did they do it? By rewriting half the bill to meet their (~ridiculous) terms. They can do it again
Pelosi had unmeetable conflicting ~plausible demands & ~managed face saving. But Schumer? He spent a month arguing with the parliamentarian & claiming a quick vote. He didn’t prepare caucus & make the cuts. They miscalculated. They need Manchin & called the wrong bluff
This statement isn’t going to help. But news here is that Manchin made a full final offer this week for 1.75T (presumably of ~permanent programs). White House didn’t accept (it was “missing key priorities”). This suggests he was more specific in private. They can take the deal
None of the following = Manchin is negotiating in bad faith:
1) We don’t like his terms; He’s asking for too much
2) He wants to negotiate in private, rather than publicly lay out all terms
3) He agreed to the topline & didn’t agree with all our sunsets to get there
~Normal stuff
Statement also clarifies this week’s headlines. Monday Biden/Manchin discussion likely included this offer (perhaps viewed as close to final by Manchin). It likely did not include the child tax credit, leading to pushback. They reject, say postponing. Manchin says he’s done

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More from @MattGrossmann

19 Dec
Don’t view this as final. They have to substantially cut the bill to meet Manchin’s terms (1.75 in ~permanent programs). Everyone else’s “red lines” are not real because they prefer a reduced bill to nothing; Manchin has the leverage, some others are slow to realize
Manchin has been ~consistent since the July letter, actually come up 250B but clear he didn’t except sunsets to get to his ceiling. Many didn’t want to hear it or fell for others’ bluffs. “make him vote against it” doesn’t work with someone running to cameras to say he’s a no
Still paths to passage:
1) Biden can meet Manchin’s demands & say this is it
2) split the bill, match sections Manchin accepts with payfors

But also paths to nowhere:
1) “we’re ready to vote”
2) we’re still fighting for immigration, House bill
3) make him identify/sell the cuts
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec
I loved “Dawn of Everything”

Here’s the best review I’ve found:
washingtonpost.com/outlook/after-…

You do have to see it as a political project combined with an early human history & popularization of anthropology, but it shows how we can learn by questioning biases of received history
In How Social Science Got Better, I found that popularized debates make progress by bringing scholars with very different knowledge bases & assumptions into conversation. There is lots of overclaiming but it can clarify disputes. We also learn by thinking from different biases
They mostly find a lot more variation than we usually hear, across types of social organization, bases of governance, priorities, scales, & seasonality, with no global developmental sequence. Despite lots of speculation, it is mostly about how we don’t know as much as we assume
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov
We are building a new congressional data archive with member, district, & policymaking variables by district-year & state-year, modeled on @IPPSR’s Correlates of State Policy:
ippsr.msu.edu/public-policy/…

& @joshmccrain’s congressional data integrations:
congressdata.joshuamccrain.com/congressional_…
We are currently cataloging available data, making crosswalks, converting/aggregating bill & policymaking data to district-year, updating, & compiling all district Census data. If you have relevant datasets, suggestions, or problem notes, please reach out. We would love your help
Our goal is to make an easy-to-use interface for working with available subsets of data, such as a project on environmental or health congressional voting with relevant member & district characteristics, similar to our Shiny app for state policy:
cspp.ippsr.msu.edu/cspp/
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov
Good video on how many all-Dem states & cities have restrictive housing, regressive taxes, & segregated education.

But state policy changes very slowly, only partly due to partisanship, & most policies have limited effects:
mattgrossmann.tumblr.com/redstateblues
Overall, Democratic & Republican states don't perform differently across objective indicators, even though you can find polarized policies with real effects:
niskanencenter.org/do-democrats-a…

We consistently overestimate the party control -> policy change -> socio-economic outcomes path
On these 3 issues:
Housing: Dem states are more restrictive, though mostly due to local policies
Taxes: Overall, Dem states are more progressive, despite the outliers here
Education: Limited spending & equalization effects of party control, not enough to matter for outcomes
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
This confusion seems to be widespread. Thermostatic politics does not require Biden to change his policy proposals from the campaign. It also does not require close voter attention to policy detail. It just requires voters to see or expect a leftward change in policy from Trump
eg voters asked in the Trump era whether they want more or less immigration or more or less health care spending are now being asked more or less from a new (or expected new) status quo. Fewer should now say more & more should say less, even if no one has changed ideal views
How much that (widespread & largely mechanical) pattern causes changes in votes or differential turnout is a more controversial ? But no one should think “he said it in the campaign” “they haven’t passed all of it yet” or “voters don’t know the details” undermines the pattern
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
New @ippsr report on Michigan redistricting draft maps for hearings this week:
ippsr.msu.edu/sites/default/…

We analyzed the collaborative maps across their criteria

Some initial findings:
ippsr.msu.edu/sites/default/…

More resources:
ippsr.msu.edu/redistricting
The Commission pursued a voting rights strategy that maximizes districts with Black population around 40%. Compared to the computer-generated random maps, this looks quite different. Here are draft maps for state House with the highest Black populations:

ippsr.msu.edu/sites/default/…
On partisan fairness, the maps are between perfect symmetry & what would be expected from randomly-drawn maps (which would favor Reps). For example, here is seat share for 38 member senate based on the 2018 Senate results compared to computer & public maps
ippsr.msu.edu/sites/default/…
Read 6 tweets

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