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Orwell2024 Profile picture
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19 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
El Gato with a time differential approach on VE.

Maybe we are moving closer towards calling our bets @luigi_warren ?

More solid data is just a matter of time. Then we will see if it’s real or an statistical artefact.

So is👇real or not…?

Interesting early data….
Some context: This discussion below.
More

I guess I was too excited about the bet. We may just have age-confounding and a Simpson's at play...

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More from @orwell2022

Orwell2024 Profile picture
20 Dec
1/ NL, AUT, SWE, NO, CH age adjusted mortality update.

I have added data up to week 47 now (28th November).

Left column: crude mortality (normalized to total population).
Right column: ASMR using NL2011 std. population.

AUT and NL go up, not NO, CH, SWE.
2/ The mortality increase in NL and AUT is not related to vaxx. The vaxx is at the same time not visible as lifesaving in all cause as C19 is not the driving parameter, neither is the vaxx.
We likely see the price to pay for permanent lockdowns, social isolation, fear, etc.
3/ Let's dig deeper than AMSR: now we plot mortality by age bin population. This is more precise in order to understand what is going on.

No surprise, the old are dying. Do people not know this? And are we now "bin counting" 90+ people to make lockdown panic? Stop this please.
Read 16 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
16 Dec
1/ Syncing on @prof_shahar on the seasonal mortality.

I use a -26 week offset to define the season (basically September - September)

Let's start with Sweden. I also have one more (20/21) data point as compared with Prof. Shahar plot as I work with Sept-Sept.
2/ As a test we overlay.

Note that we have one month different season definitions. Small detail. I used 1st September as it seems to be the historical death minimum over years and countries.
3/ Now let's play. More countries.

And here we start to see interesting things like the disastrous performance of AUT, CH, FR on 20/21 season. Surprised me

We learn: locking down in 19/20 season makes 20/21 explode.

@DrJBhattacharya @MLevitt_NP2013 @MartinKulldorff won 👏🏆
Read 8 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
14 Dec
1/ Another broken Covid claim.

Work done by @USMortality 😎

I just plot it here on a map. Same scale as my maps for Europe.

Note the he uses a German std. population (2020) while me ESP2013 or NL2011.

The timeframe is week 1 - current week 50 fro all years. Image
2/ Animated version.

The mortality in the east, is nothing new. The low vaccination rate has little to do with a problem that is seen 2016-2019 aswell.

Try with obesity/smoking maps to understand the issue...😉
@USMortality @MLevitt_NP2013 @connolly_s @rosenbusch_ @DrSimonsSpirit @FrankfurtZack @holmenkollin @prof_freedom @jens_140081 @SHomburg
Read 7 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
14 Dec
1/ Netherlands real problem: demographics.

NL: The red line (crude mortality) is increasing. This is demographics driven. It manifest as ICU and hospital load before.

It can't be stopped.

It must be managed with elderly care infrastructure, and not by school closures. Image
2/ The std. mortality (blue) is continuously improving, although stagnating in NL as compared with top references Sweden and Norway.

Std. mortality depends on many health parameters like lifestyle and culture. Improving it is a slow process and won't stop red going up at ~1%. Image
3/ Both the red and blue curves are important.

Blue: monitors health. Here NL is doing fine.

Red: determines infrastructure load. It's the result of demographics and something that doesn't come unannounced. Here NL will be under pressure, for decades to come. Image
Read 6 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
9 Dec
1/ "Age adjusted all cause mortality trends 2000-2021 in Europe"

This was quite some work, so I hope you appreciate the article. I don't think that this kind of analysis using 5 year age bin granularity over 20 year trends has been done elsewhere.

orwell2024.substack.com/p/age-adjusted…
2/ The age adjustement was done on 5 year age bins.

Some groups @CebmOxford cebm.net/covid-19/exces… report age adjusted mortality for 2020. But the method is inaccurate as too wide age bins are used.
3/ For teaching purpose, we also applied the WHO2015-2025 standard population in some graphs to demonstrate the problem if applying this to an old population.
Read 16 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
8 Dec
1/ I spotted one little (manipulative?) move by @OurWorldInData using wayback machine. In July 2021 they change the colour code of the life expectancy world map.

June:
web.archive.org/web/2021062805…
July: web.archive.org/web/2021072013… Image
2/ Was Africa "too shiny" with yellow/red colour codes? Isn't the Wikipedia encoding much clearer @OurWorldInData ? Here again side by side.

"Nice tactics" by OWID to hide (see right) the lowest life expectancy countries:

Chad, Central African Republic, Somalia and Nigeria. ImageImage
3/ Very uselfeull this web.archive.org tool. @Bobby_Network 😉
Read 4 tweets

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