Thread by @jeremyduda

It's Sunday afternoon, and you know what means — redistricting half day! The @ArizonaIRC will meet for four hours starting at 1pm as they strive to approve final maps by Wednesday, their self-imposed deadline.

Tune in here:

We've got a new LD map and 3 new CD maps for the commissioners to consider and modify today. The new legislative map is LD map 14.0. redistricting-irc-az.hub.arcgis.com/pages/final-dr…

CD map 11.0 makes consensus changes to CD3, CD7 and CD9 in the West Valley. CD map 11.1 has Mehl's proposal for the CD6/CD7 boundary in Tucson. And CD map 11.2 has Lerner's preferred Tucson boundary, moves Casa Grande from CD6 to CD2 and moves Gold Canyon from CD2 to CD5.

Working on Sunday sucks, but at least the IRC meeting will distract me from watching the rest of this Cardinals game. The Lions? Really?

At least the commission should be finished up before the Suns game starts at 6.

Here we go

They'll start with legislative districts, since there's only one map to deal with, LD map 14.0 irc-az.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/vi…

They're starting with a few small proposed changes to the LD map

Mehl says they've got boundaries for Liberty, an unincorporated community next to Buckeye. People have requested it move from LD23 to LD25. This would move GOP Sen @SineKerr from a Dem district to a Republican district.

Lerner says she and Watchman spoke with the Pascua Yaqui tribe over the weekend. They want to move from LD23 to LD20, which is a more Tucson-centric district.

Mehl mentions that people in Apache Junction have requested that their city not be split between LD7 and LD10. He wants to accommodate them, says it'll be an even population swap.

Neuberg notes that they're deliberating on a map they haven't actually adopted yet. It's a 5-0 vote to adopt LD map 14.0.

They're now trying to figure out the exact boundaries of the Liberty area they want to transfer, seeing what they can do, given that they're messing with a VRA district (LD23)

They're looking to move the western sliver of Apache Junction that's in LD10 into LD7 with the rest of the city. Neuberg says they got a letter from the mayor and a city councilmember asking that the city be in one LD.

This would make LD10, which is already underpopulated by 4k, underpopulated by 14k. They're gonna put this on the back burner for now.

Buckeye leaders have asked the city's Fiesta area be moved out of LD29 and into LD25 to keep it in the same district as the rest of the city.

York wants to move the LD12 boundary north to US 60, taking the southern sliver of LD8, and for LD8 to take the southeast corner of LD14 bound by Chaparral and 68th St.

This would move Old Town Scottsdale, Fashion Square into LD8. York says he thinks the area fits better with the ASU community. Neuberg agrees, says there's a lot of shared economic interests and infrastructure needs.

When you hear about minor changes that would move a small area into this district or that district, and you wonder whether this affects any incumbent lawmakers, you can consult our handy map from this story azmirror.com/2021/11/02/som…

Lerner wants to put the rest of Arcadia in LD4, move it out of LD8

Neuberg wants to move Desert Ridge from LD3 to LD4, doesn't share Lerner's interest in using the 101 as a boundary. “I don’t believe there’s anything magical about the 101. It’s a road... I’m more concerned about economic flow, communities of interest, than an arbitrary line.”

Lerner says uniting Arcadia is more important than moving Desert Ridge. One is a community where people live, the other is a shopping area.

Neuberg: "I don’t care about shopping. But I think the capitalist entrepreneurs understand the movement of society, they understand population shifts. So for me, some of that is compelling where we feel the hubs of communities will be and are on the cusp of changing.”

We're on a 10-minute recess

We're back

They're looking at moving the northeastern corner of LD28, which is significantly overpopulated, into LD3. The area east of I-17, north of the Carefree Highway. This would help with the underpopulation that would be caused by the proposed changes to LD3.

York wants all of Phoenix's Deer Valley village, which is split between LD2 and LD3, to be in LD2

The northern tip of LD28, which is New River, moving from LD28 to LD3

Lerner wants to move a small chunk of LD1 between Cactus and Peoria into LD2

Neuberg says they need to be taking competitiveness into account. LD2 has a 1.1% GOP advantage, the most competitive LD on the map right now. Mapping consultant Doug Johnson said Lerner's change would make it more competitive by 0.2%.

I wonder how different the redistricting process would be if we had public testimony like at the 2001 and 2011 commissioners. With public testimony, you see exactly who is requesting certain changes, as opposed to private calls, texts, etc, with commissioners.

We can see the written comments that get submitted. But it's just not the same.

Looking at the map like this puts some of these changes into perspective when it comes to partisan lean and competitiveness. The area they're moving from highly competitive LD4 into deep blue LD is pretty heavily Dem, so that would make LD4 redder.

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1472675978140737536?s=20

Here's what LD map 14.0 looks like after some of the proposed changes from today

5-0 vote to put Maricopa County changes plus Pascua Yaqui change on the map for LD map 15.0. No action on Apache Junction yet. Neuberg emphasizes they're not agreeing to these changes yet. “I do believe we have consensus that we don’t yet have consensus," Mehl says.

While the mapping consultants draft LD map 15.0, the commissioners will debate whether the put Flagstaff in LD6 with the tribes or to move it into LD7, as the tribes want.

This is a big issue, and if it doesn't happen, I'd say there's a good chance of a VRA lawsuit by the Navajo Nation and/or other tribes

Neuberg noted that in the late 2000s, white Dems won primaries in the tribal district due to votes from white liberals in Flagstaff. That didn't happen over the past decade, when Flagstaff was separate from the tribal LD.

Watchman, a member of the Navajo Nation, says many tribal students go to school in Winslow, Holbrook

The tribes want Flagstaff out of LD6 and Snowflake, Shumway and Show Low in, Watchman says. Vernon, Springerville and Greer are a better fit in neighboring LD7, he says.

Watchman says the 7 northern tribes that would be in LD6 want as high a Native American citizen voting age population in the district as possible. It's currently at 61%.

Check out @DiinSilversmith's recent article to learn more about what's at stake for Indigenous communities in redistricting azmirror.com/2021/12/15/don…

Neuberg says she expects a lot of synergy between LD6 and LD23, which include major southern tribes like Tohono O'odham.

Ditto for the congressional districts. Neuberg says CD7 rep who represents southern tribes will be attentive to broader Native American concerns. CD2, which will include the Navajo and other northern tribes, will be in a Republican-leaning, marginally competitive district.

Mehl is concerned about the effect this would have on non-Native communities in the White Mountains, says he doesn't understand the math for why Indigenous voters would be at risk of being outvoted in Dem primaries.

Neuberg says she agrees that splitting White Mountains doesn't make sense, but says they need options for how to deal with possible problem in Dem primaries for tribal voters. “I’m not stipulating that there is a threat. I’m recognizing that there may well be a threat.”

Mehl says he'd prefer the White Mountains to be united than split, but they've been united in the tribal district over the past decade and have been some of the most vocal people in the state about being unhappy with their representation.

Mehl: “If it turns out legally there is an issue, then I would really appreciate Commissioner Watchman suggesting a different split or a different alternative that we could take a hard look at that would treat the White Mountains less chopped up than this."

Watchman says tribes have gotten more resources over past decade with all tribal legislators. “I think beforehand, many of the non-Natives assume that because you’re Native and you live on a reservation the state has no obligation to channel resources to reservations.”

Neuberg says no matter what happens, someone will probably feel they're not being represented. She echoes Mehl's request that Watchman see if he can find a compromise that maximizes Native influence in LD6 while giving the White Mountains the representation they want.

Watchman: “I will consult with the Native Americans to come up with some reasonable solutions."

Neuberg isn't ready to make a decision today, is hoping for a consensus. “This is one of the most sensitive decisions that I believe we’re going to make.”

Mehl acknowledges that if the lawyers and consultants confirm there's a Democratic primary issue with Flagstaff in LD6, they'll have to find a compromise. If not, he says Flagstaff should be in the district.

Johnson says under current map, 49,360 Flagstaff people are in LD7, about 22,400 are in LD6. It's roughly a 60-40 split. Per Watchman's suggestion from last week, LD map 14.0 uses the railroad tracks as the dividing line.

15-minute recess, then they move on to the congressional map

We're back. The IRC will now debate the congressional maps.

They'll debate whether to start with Mehl's CD map 11.1 or Lerner's CD map 11.2. The big difference is down in Tucson with the CD6-CD7 line.

Lerner suggests they use the consensus map, 11.0

Mehl proposes starting with his 11.1. They'll have to grapple with the CD6-CD7 boundary in Tucson anyway, he says.

Neuberg says she wants to start with Mehl's 11.1, not necessarily because she prefers those lines in Tucson, but because she wants to have the deliberations over where the boundary should be between CD6 and CD7

Neuberg: “I’d rather just dive into it and solve the problem.”

Neuberg votes with the Republicans 3-2 to use CD map 11.1 as the new starting point

CD map 11.1 in the Phoenix and Tucson areas

Rather than start in Tucson, Lerner wants to start in the Phoenix area. Johnson warns that any changes they make later in Pima and Pinal counties will have ripple effects in Maricopa.

Lerner reiterates her request to put all of Casa Grande in CD2, says it should be in the same district as Coolidge and Florence

Neuberg says she's OK with each side doing their own map, as long as the changes don't fundamentally change things. She wants to give each side 15 minutes to give instructions to the mapping team.

First, Neuberg wants to propose some changes to CD1 and CD3

Neuberg still wants CD3 to move up to Missouri, keep historic neighborhoods together, have CD1 pick up part of Moon Valley area to balance population

To make CD1 more of an urban Phoenix district, Lerner suggests CD1 take Metrocenter area from CD8, take Cave Creek, Carefree, Phoenix north of Pinnacle Peak out of CD1.

Rather than having "arm" of CD7 between Broadway and Golf Links, Mehl proposes lopping it off and using Craycroft Road as the boundary between CD6 and CD7 in Tucson down to Davis-Monthan AFB.

That will make CD6 overpopulated. Mehl says they can balance by moving some of Casa Grande into CD2.

York proposes moving CD4 north to get the small segment of Tempe that's in CD1

York proposes moving CD4/CD5 boundary to Arizona Avenue, push CD5 into Chandler more. Neuberg warns him to be mindful of the Latino community in that area, which she wants in CD4.

York says his proposed changes the CD4-CD5 boundary will make CD4 more competitive

LD map 15.0 is live

I didn't include an inset for the Tucson area on LD map 15.0 because the commission didn't make any changes there

LD3 is hugely underpopulated on LD map 15.0, by 19,938 people, which is 8.36% below average. It'll need to add some population.

York wants Sun City West to be with Sun City and Sun City Grande in CD9

Sine Kerr can breathe a sign of relief. LD map 15.0 moves her from a Dem district into a Republican one. Whoever inundated Mehl and York with calls during lunch on Friday got the job done.

To make up for the population that CD1 would lose to CD3, York is proposing that CD1 take from CD8 north of Moon Valley

York's proposed changes look like they would pull Dem areas of central Phoenix out of CD1 and replace them with Republican areas in north Phoenix

York wants the northwest corner of CD3 to go into CD9, says it's mainly for population balancing and to have the Luke AFB area in CD9. Neuberg asks if there's a significant minority community in that area that'll be separated from CD3. York will look into that.

Lerner says that area is part of Maryvale, which they already discussed shouldn't be in CD9. She wants that in CD7 instead.

Moving part of Maryvale into CD7 would probably create some overpopulation in that district, leaving more Dem-heavy areas in Tucson that could be moved into CD6, which would make that district more competitive and better for Dems.

That's all for today, folks. The @ArizonaIRC will be back in action tomorrow at 9a.m. "It will be another marathon day," Neuberg says.