Thread by @jeremyduda

The @ArizonaIRC is about to begin today's meeting, with the goal of approving final maps by Wednesday. I'll tweet out the link to watch live as soon as I have it. For the meantime, follow my tweets throughout the day for redistricting updates.

We're still waiting for the next iteration of the congressional maps — Lerner still has some suggestions for her version, I believe — but here's the latest on the legislative districts, LD map 15.0 irc-az.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/vi…

Neuberg says they'll continue where they left off yesterday, with Lerner providing more suggestions for changes to the CD map. She says this will be the last opportunity for commissioners to do separate maps. We've heard that before though.

Neuberg warns against "asking for extreme things" and "magically thinking" that it will create a compromise.

Here's the YouTube link for today's meeting if you want to tune in and watch

Lerner is giving a rundown of her and Watchman's requested changes from yesterday: Maryvale west of 99th Ave from CD3 to CD7 (instead of CD9, as York wants), Casa Grande from CD6 to CD2, Gold Canyon from CD2 to CD5, Leisure World from CD4 to CD5 (a consensus change)

Lerner wants to move the area just outside of Florence, southeast of San Tan Valley, from CD2 to CD5

Here's CD map 11.1, the most recently adopted starting point. Neuberg emphasized yesterday that she's not necessarily supporting Mehl's proposal in this map for the CD6/CD7 boundary in Tucson, which has been a major point of contention. irc-az.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/vi…

For population balancing, Lerner says she wants to move Chandler north of the 202 from CD5 to CD4. Consultant Mark Flahan says CD5 currently overpopulated by about 26k.

That's the more Dem-friendly part of Chandler, I believe, so that could help make CD4 a better district for Dems. As it's drawn on the map now, CD4 is strongly Dem-leaning but still slightly within the range that's considered competitive.

To make up for the newfound overpopulation in CD4, Lerner proposes giving CD1 more of Tempe, moving the line to University west of Hardy and to Broadway east of Hardy. Moves more Dem areas into highly competitive CD1.

Here's the CD1-CD4 boundary after Lerner's proposed change

Lerner proposes moving corner of Yuma bound by 32nd Street and Pacific Ave from CD9 to CD7, says there's a large Latino population there. CD7 is a predominantly Latino VRA district.

Adding people in the Valley and Yuma into CD7 would also free up Dem-heavy parts of Tucson to move from CD7 into competitive CD6

Lerner has moved to the big issue, the CD6-CD7 boundary in Tucson

Lerner's talking about moving the line east between Broadway and Golf Links, but then back to Campbell between the river and Broadway. That Rillito River-to-Broadway line has gone back and forth like a ping pong ball for the past two weeks.

Lerner wants Peoria north of the 303 to be in CD9

That would allow them to move Sun City Grand into from CD9 into CD8, where it would join Sun City and Sun City West

Lerner's done. We're moving on to the Republican changes to the CD map.

CD3 is slightly overpopulated and CD8 slightly underpopulated, so York proposes moving the boundary from Northern to Orangewood west from 19th Ave to 43rd Ave. If that's not enough, they could go as far south as Missouri.

I'm guessing this is a Dem area, but CD8 is Republican enough that this wouldn't make much of a difference. But it would keep CD3 from giving its excess (Dem) population to highly competitive CD1.

Neuberg says she hopes people don't change highly competitive nature of CDs from the draft map without a good constitutional reason for doing so

The commissioners are all trying to balance CD populations (which must be almost exactly equal) within a couple thousand for now. Neuberg says says they must be completely balanced by Tuesday night for "last check" on Wednesday.

Responding to criticism of his and York's proposal to move a chunk of Maryvale into CD9 from CD3, Mehl says if they're going to unify Maryvale, have it all in CD3.

York's proposed changes would put most of Glendale's western arm into CD9, with the rest split between CD3 and CD8

We're done with proposed changes to the CD map. They're going into executive session for legal advice on VRA compliance and constitutional criteria.

Executive session is over. The IRC is on a lunch break until 12:45.

We've got new CD maps ready to go when the commission reconvenes in about 10 minutes.

CD map 12.0 is the Dem proposal. It has Lerner's plan to use Campbell as the CD6-CD7 boundary in Tucson, making the district hypercompetitive. irc-az.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/vi…

CD map 12.1 is the GOP plan, with Mehl's latest proposal for CD6-CD7. Instead of having an "arm" that juts east between Broadway and Golf Links, Swan and Craycroft are the new boundaries from the river down to D-M. R advantage is 3.6%. irc-az.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/vi…

CD1 is actually slightly more competitive in the Republican map than the Dem one, 2.6% GOP advantage compared to 3.1%

CD4 is marginally competitive in both, with a Dem edge of 5.8% in the Dem map and 4.9% in the Republican map

The Dem map has CD2 (O'Halleran) as marginally competitive, with a 6.1% Republican edge. That advantage is 7.1% in the GOP, just outside the range that the IRC considers competitive.

The Dem moves Casa Grande into CD2 and Gold Canyon out, which should account for that difference in the partisan spread

We're back. With the mapping team still working on proposed changes to the CDs, they're jumping into the legislative map. irc-az.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/vi…

5-0 vote to use LD map 15.0 as the new starting point for deliberation

Neuberg says they're past the time for the Ds and Rs to diverge. She wants deliberation and votes on specific districts and areas. Sounds she wants to lock in some final decisions on a piece-by-piece basis, if need be.

Lerner wants what she calls "Arcadia Light," everything northeast of 16th Street and Indian School, to go from LD1 to LD4, says Arcadia is a distinct area that people move to for a reason, and the current map splits it for no good reason

Lerner also wants to bring LD4's southwestern border with LD8 down to Thomas Road, which would eliminate the little nub they carted out for the Arizona Country Club.

All told, Lerner is looking to bring everything northeast of 16th Street and Thomas into LD4. That would take pieces of both LD1 and LD8.

To balance population, Lerner would pull part of south Scottsdale from Chaparral to Indian Bend out of LD4 and move it into LD8

Lerner says she wants to focus on LD2, LD4, LD9 and LD13, the four competitive districts in the Valley

Neuberg notes that 3 of those districts (LD2, LD4 and LD9) are toss-ups already based on the 5-4 splits between the 9 statewide races they use to help measure competitiveness

Lerner says the current map has a 17-13 Republican advantage in lege districts. Neuberg tells her, “We do not focus on the composition of what the legislature would be in terms of Rs and Ds. That’s not something that’s in our constitutional purview.”

Neuberg wants Lerner to pitch her proposed changes based on more than just competitiveness. “I’m most focused on the constitutional arguments for the changes you want in 2, 4, 9 and 13. I want to have a constitutional conversation.”

Lerner says her proposed changes not only keep Arcadia whole but keeps Scottsdale Unified School District whole, reduces the split of the Madison School District, cites a couple other school districts.

Throughout the process, Neuberg has put a high premium on school districts as communities of interest to keep whole

Lerner wants to undo York's move to move to put Deer Valley northwest of 101 and I-17 into LD2. She seems to say that's not part of Deer Valley. York points out that Deer Valley Village covers all four quadrants of that intersection. Lerner says keep north of 101 out of LD2.

Lerner says change made LD2 less competitive, wants the 101 to be the boundary, since there's no way to put all of Deer Valley in LD2. Neuberg said yesterday she sees no significance of the 101 as a boundary. "It's just a road."

Doug Johnson points out that area was in LD28 previously. Lerner says put it in LD3 so that district has the majority of Deer Valley. LD3 is underpopulated by almost 20k people right now.

Lerner wants to move the Lehi area between McKellips and Loop 202 back to LD10 from LD9

Lerner says her proposed changes to LD9-LD10 are just minor tweaks. But she has bigger changes she wants in LD13.

Neuberg supports Lerner's proposed change in LD9 and LD10. “The community of interest of Lehi I think would be well served in District 10.”

In LD13 and LD14, Lerner says she wants to use Chandler, Gilbert and Mesa municipal boundaries more, get more of Gilbert in LD14. She says she has a few options. They would also make LD13 more competitive.

It sounds like this would largely recreate the boundaries of the current LD12 and LD17

Neuberg says she's very open to Lerner's arguments, but following city lines more isn't a compelling argument to her. She says local leaders are pretty happy with the current layout.

LD13 as its drawn on LD map 15.0 has a GOP advantage of 3.8%, within the 4% "highly competitive" range. Republicans were 7-2 in the 9 statewide races used as a metric for competitiveness.

LD13 would largely replace the current LD17. LD13 looks more competitive now than LD17 did when it was drawn. LD17 has elected a Dem to the House in the last two elections.

Lerner wants LD14 to take a big part of Gilbert from LD13, west to Gilbert Road in the northeast part of LD13. LD13 would then move north, possibly up to the LD9 boundary.

Neuberg says she's open to making districts more competitive to make them more accountable to minority communities, but warns Lerner not to change what's good in other districts.

Lerner on her proposed changes to LD13: “I think it still would lean Republican but it would be more balanced.”

Lerner is done for now. It's the Republicans' turn.

Mehl says he and York think this is pretty close to a finished map

The 2011 IRC, which Mehl thinks focused on competitiveness more than the AZ Constitution permits, had 4-5 competitive districts based on several metrics. LD map 15.0 has five highly competitive districts, he says.

Mehl points out that they pulled part of Arcadia out of LD4 in the south so they could add Desert Ridge. That was something Neuberg was very supportive of.

Neuberg says Mehl is "spot on" that “there is a lot of good in this map.”

“I think there is so much more right about this map than wrong.”

Lerner says that while LD13 and LD16 have competitive partisan spreads, they're 7-2 and 9-0 for the GOP in the 9 races they use as benchmarks

Neuberg says that even is a district isn't a tossup, having a fairly narrow partisan spread has a moderating influence, creates more accountability to people in the minority

Neuberg tells Lerner that LD2, LD4 and L9 are tossup districts. “It’s going to take a lot to convince me that other communities of interest or other constitutional criteria are being harmed if we think we’ve hit a sweet spot.”

That being said, Neuberg said she shares Lerner's concerns about LD13 and says Latino and Asian voters in the area would be best served by a highly competitive district

Looking at the basket of 9 statewide races they use to measure competitiveness, consultant Doug Johnson says if a district is 8-1, that 1 could just be a quirk. But 7-2 and 6-3 are better signs of competitiveness.

Lerner says "very deliberate changes" moved LD4 from leaning blue to 3.8% Republican

Neuberg: are you saying the only reason for those changes was to give GOP more of a partisan advantage? Lerner says she believes that was a big part of it, says they split up Arcadia in order to move LD4 north.

Neuberg, who advocated to put Desert Ridge in LD4, says, “That was not … the motivation behind my decision.”

York says a lot of the makeup of LD4 is based on a lot of mutual decisions on what communities should be together, disputes Lerner's description of "Arcadia light," which he feels is further to the north.

York says he views LD4 as naturally Republican leaning, but that's not why they drew it the way they did

York and Mehl want to extend LD27 from ASU West at Thunderbird and 43rd Ave east to 19th Ave

Lerner says that'll make LD2 uncompetitive. Neuberg shares her concern.

York says wait and see their proposed changes to replace the lost population in LD2, Mehl says they think it'll probably still be competitive

York proposes moving LD2 north along Cave Creek Rd to Dove Valley Road, to take in the area near where the big semiconductor plant is going in

York would replace some of the lost population in LD3 by adding Anthem, which would come out of overpopulated LD28

York: “This would make 2 less competitive but we also think it makes 27 a better district.”

Neuberg wants a 10-minute break. Before that, Mehl says he and York have one more proposal for the "non-controversial areas of the White Mountains."

10-minute recess. See you at 2:40.

We're back

Neuberg wants to focus their debate on the core LDs that are driving the debate and start voting to lock in changes. That doesn't mean they can't vote to "unlock" those changes if a better idea comes along, she says.

York proposes moving part of LD23 north of McDowell, which is part of Goodyear, into LD29.