Rapid Test - FDA Analogy:

Person: I want a pair of binoculars to see the moon when hiking

FDA: Great but do they allow you to see Pluto?

P: Umm, no…?

FDA: ah, well, if they can’t help you see Pluto, we deem them illegal for use in the US.

P: What?

FDA: Yep. Get a telescope
This is an analogy to point out how ridiculous it is that the FDA continues, to this day, to require comparison of a rapid antigen test to PCR when they have entirely different qualities and uses.

If FDA wasn’t so stubborn, they’d make the comparison test a BinaxNoW.
Use a high bar against BinaxNoW.

Here, Simple:

For authorization, a new rapid test must achieve 95% sensitivity compared to Abbott BinaxNOW (since we’ve already deemed it appropriate), and must have fewer than 1 in 2000 false positives.
This alone would immensely streamline rapid test authorizations and not force companies to skew their clinical trials and offer FDA data that is effectively useless (but FDA considers it - erroneously - useful)
And to be clear - this requirement to skew the clinical trials or fail is what has stalled so many rapid tests.
What do I mean by this? As long as you are comparing an Ag test to a PCR, you have to selectively and very carefully choose who you are going to allow into your clinical trial. If you don't skew the trial, you'll get people at all different PCR Ct values. ...
And that will make it look like the rapid tests are missing a lot of people. But the reality is, rapid tests detect people with high viral load who are infectious and are thus the most important to detect in real time. PCR detects people for weeks after they are infectious.
so this is a simple problem - if PCR lasts positive for weeks after someone leaves isolation and rapid tests are specific to the time of infection when someone needs to isolate, then the FDA is forcing clinical trials that selectively recruit certain ppl at high virus loads.
Better to just compare to a BinaxNOW. Then you are comparing apples to apples. And not apples (rapid) to orange (PCR)... which have different analytes and different kinetics.

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More from @michaelmina_lab

21 Dec
Well - it’s Finally happening!

US will make 500 million #Rapidtests available for free to Americans

@POTUS⁩ will invoke the Defense Productions Act to make this happen

STARTING in January… but note, *starting* - not all in January

1/ nytimes.com/2021/12/21/us/…
It’s a terrific start and invoking DPA is a great move - I do believe I wrote that we needed to invoke DPA over a year ago!

Though to temper expectations - there’s 350 million ppl in the US and 500 million free tests distributed over a period of months only goes so far

2/
But now the ball is rolling.

Don’t expect to be swimming in rapid tests. Do expect to be able to order them free and the WH will figure out how to keep keeping up.

This is a great start - along with putting @T_Inglesby at the helm in the White House Testing!

3/
Read 5 tweets
21 Dec
Rapid tests work!

#Rapidtests given out to people for free in the UK cut hospital stays by a third!

Ppl say - but look there is still transmission. Sure - but it doesn’t mean it wouldn’t have been worse.

A LOT of people are living today Bc of them

1/

theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…
“we found that Liverpool city region’s early rollout of community rapid testing was associated with a 32% fall in Covid-19 hospital admissions after careful matching to other parts of the country in a similar position to Liverpool but without rapid testing”

2/
“We also found that daily lateral flow testing as an alternative to quarantine for people who had been in close contact with a known infected person enabled emergency services to keep key teams such as fire crews in work, underpinning public safety.”

3/
Read 5 tweets
21 Dec
REMINDER

Somewhere over the year the importance of FREQUENCY of tests got lost

NO test is perfect

"Test Sensitivity" is MUCH MORE about frequency

If test fails to turn pos on day 1, check day 2. If pos day 2, you can stop transmission days 2,3,4,5,6

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
And yes. I know tests are $$ / unavailable

Believe me, I’ve tried probably more than any human on earth (literally) to have us not arrive where we are:

with a predicted variant overtaking vaccines in a world where no one has access to tests

I am sorry I couldn’t do more

2/
And going back to first tweet. If testing is not frequent then likelihood of testing on day 1,2 is not terribly high so by time you test, you’ll usually be positive if you are infectious. This is how it’s always worked

W Omicron it raises stakes further for speed/frequency

3/
Read 4 tweets
18 Dec
IMPORTANT:

RAPID TESTS DO WORK WITH OMICRON

"But why are some people staying negative in the first days they have symptoms??"

This is expected. Symptoms don't = contagious virus
This is literally a reflection of the fact that vaccines are doing their job!

PLEASE READ Image
Rapid Tests work w Omicron

Omicron is mutated mostly in Spike
Rapid Tests don't detect Spike

They detect nucleocapsid (N)

Omicron has 4 mutations in N

2 were in alpha/delta and were fine

2 are in NTD - a non-immunogenic site - unlikely to impact rapid tests

2/
We can use this “new” relationship between symptom onset and infectiousness to our advantage!

It’s a feature, not a bug. Now that the world has pre-existing immunity, we have to adjust our thinking.

Newly Symptomatic and Ag neg?
Probably not infectious now… test again tmrw

3/
Read 17 tweets
17 Dec
Dear @POTUS (& @PressSec)

An ambitious, but simple plan to convert holidays into an time to REDUCE #COVID19

1) Give every American 4 #RapidTests

2) Ask every American to test on Dec 25, 28, 31, Jan 3

3) Simultaneous mass severing of transmission chains can collapse outbreaks
@POTUS @PressSec I'm suggesting that US literally gives tests to all Americans & do so WITH A STRATEGY

No Insurance Reimbursements (this is public health, not medicine!)

Have a plan (I suggested a useful and doable one above) and get the tests out.

It will help curb spread

2/
And Before ppl say "Not enough supply, impossible"

It's not true.

We CAN have the supply
There are billions of rapid tests across the world.
A small fraction come to the US. Why? Bc our FDA places massive barriers, foregoing millions of data points collected globally.

3/
Read 4 tweets
14 Dec
I’m going back and forth about this @TheAtlantic piece

It is SO difficult to read

As @jabarocas wrote - it insults & dismisses so many sacrifices made

But it also represents a hard truth of how millions of Americans view & have dealt w COVID

1/

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Should @TheAtlantic have published it?

It conveys what I consider deadly beliefs. But it’s so representative of the thinking of very many citizens that I also think it’s good for many people to read - to gain understanding of how people are thinking - regardless of the data

2/
So I’m really on the fence. Perhaps it should be published w a warning on top. But that is a very slippery slope of censorship and Reenforcing divisions and information bubbles on both sides

3/
Read 4 tweets

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