Very encouraging data out of South Africa. Decoupling between new COVID-19 cases and ICU admissions and deaths. In addition, cases in South Africa have peaked and are now on the decline.
Let’s talk about this and more! 🧵
It is IMPORTANT to note severity of disease in humans is NOT determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection. Make sure you are PROTECTED. Regarding the information above:
•H/T: @ScottGottliebMD
•Source: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/co…
Summary:
•Difficult to disentangle if less severity is due to prior IMMUNITY (vaccine or natural infection) OR intrinsic virulence of Omicron
•Most hospital admissions in UNVACCINATED individuals
•>70% seroprevalence and 40% one dose of vaccine
•2-3x higher risk re-infection
•Vaccine immune escape (nAbs ONLY), protection against SEVERE infection sustained
•Other provinces may have lower seroprevalence and lower vaccination
•Vulnerable: UNVACCINATED, no previous SARS-CoV-2 infection
•GET PROTECTED. GET BOOSTED.
•Don’t walk around immune naive!
Encouraging data out of Denmark. Omicron-related hospital admissions are at around 0.6% compared to around 1.5% for Delta hospitalizations. That’s about a 60% DECREASE. Preliminary data obviously BUT the message stays the same: make sure you are PROTECTED. covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter…
UK study on Omicron symptoms falling in line with what has been observed in South Africa: Omicron symptoms are predominantly cold symptoms such as runny nose, headache, sore throat and sneezing. NOTE: FOR VACCINATED INDIVIDUALS
•covid.joinzoe.com/post/omicron-a…
•hindustantimes.com/world-news/omi…
“New Studies Raise Hopes That Vaccines Prevent Severe Disease From Omicron - In the lab, immune cells put up a strong fight against Omicron, suggesting that vaccines will be able to prevent the worst outcomes of the virus variant." nytimes.com/2021/12/15/hea…
Thank your T-Cells! 🎉
If you can’t read the article above, you can find the WHO presentation and studies here: who.int/news-room/even…. If it helps, some of my previous threads have already gone into this!
New out of Moderna this morning. Moderna’s booster dose of 50μg INCREASES the level of neutralizing antibodies against Omicron by 37-FOLD. A booster dose of 100μg INCREASES the level of neutralizing antibodies by ~83-FOLD. Conclusion? The boosters ARE effective against Omicron!
Very encouraging data out of South Africa. A study released by NICD shows South Africans contracting COVID-19 in the current fourth wave of infections are 80% LESS likely to be hospitalized if infected with Omicron compared with other strains.
Let’s talk about this and more! 🧵
It is IMPORTANT to note severity of disease in humans is NOT determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection. Make sure you are PROTECTED. Regarding sources for the information above:
•bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
•medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Once admitted to the hospital though, the risk of severe disease doesn’t differ from other variants. Compared to Delta infections in South Africa between April and November, Omicron infections are associated with a 70% LOWER risk of severe disease.
This picture paints about 3000 words. Expand for full effect.
According to November 2021 Wisconsin data:
•People not fully vaccinated were diagnosed with COVID-19 at a rate 5x higher than people who were fully vaccinated.
•People not fully vaccinated were hospitalized with COVID-19 at a rate 11x higher than people who were fully
vaccinated.
•People not fully vaccinated died from COVID-19 at a rate 12x higher than people who were fully vaccinated.
These rates are age-adjusted. Fully vaccinated here still refers to two doses of a vaccine, not three.
Encouraging news out of South Africa’s MOH this morning. Age-controlled data regarding Omicron severity. ACROSS ALL AGES, death rates among hospitalized patients are 2/3 LOWER in the Omicron wave. In addition, hospitalization rates have FALLEN 91% in the Omicron wave.🧵
You can find the presentation here:
“Only 1.7% of identified COVID-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
HKUMed shows Omicron infects and multiplies 70X faster than Delta in the human bronchus, which may explain why it transmits faster, BUT also shows Omicron infection in the lung is significantly LOWER than the original virus, which may be an indicator of lower disease severity. 🧵
They found that Omicron replicates faster than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and Delta in the human bronchus. At 24 hours after infection, Omicron replicated around 70X higher than Delta and the original SARS-CoV-2 virus.
In contrast, Omicron variant replicated LESS efficiently (MORE than 10X lower) in the human lung tissue than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, which may suggest lower severity of disease.
Early data out of SAMRC shows Omicron causes milder symptoms (with recovery within 3 days), two doses of Pfizer ARE effective against hospitalization, AND data indicates that the severity of Omicron is 29% LOWER than D614G (first) wave of COVID-19 infections in South Africa.🧵
This study looks at data from 78,000 Omicron patients in South Africa. There are 38 admissions per 1,000 Omicron cases, compared to 101 admissions per 1,000 for Delta. The proportion of hospitalized patients needing ICU is 13% for this wave compared to 30% in previous waves.
This study found that individuals vaccinated with two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were 70% less likely to be hospitalized with Omicron compared to unvaccinated individuals. While this is LOWER than the protection vs. Delta, PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THE FOLLOWING
People keep asking me my thoughts on Omicron. All I can do is let the data speak for itself. South Africa’s CFR is about to be lower than the UK’s. To note, their death rate is now 1 in 200- the lowest it has been throughout the pandemic and 10x lower than last September.
If you’re going to ask me about Denmark hospitalizations, a QUARTER of those hospitalizations tested positive 48 hours AFTER admission. Not to mention, 14 of those 27 have ALREADY been discharged. That’s already half right there.