Encouraging news out of South Africa’s MOH this morning. Age-controlled data regarding Omicron severity. ACROSS ALL AGES, death rates among hospitalized patients are 2/3 LOWER in the Omicron wave. In addition, hospitalization rates have FALLEN 91% in the Omicron wave.🧵
You can find the presentation here:
“Only 1.7% of identified COVID-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
“We have seen a decrease in a proportion of people who need to be on oxygen. They are at very low levels,” said Waasila Jassat, a researcher with the NICD. “For the first time there are more non-severe than severe patients in hospital.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Summary:
•Difficult to disentangle if less severity is due to prior IMMUNITY (vaccine or natural infection) OR intrinsic virulence of Omicron
•Most hospital admissions in UNVACCINATED individuals
•>70% seroprevalence and 40% one dose of vaccine
•2-3x higher risk re-infection
•Vaccine immune escape (nAbs ONLY), protection against SEVERE infection sustained
•Other provinces may have lower seroprevalence and lower vaccination
•Vulnerable: UNVACCINATED, no previous SARS-CoV-2 infection
•GET PROTECTED. GET BOOSTED.
•Don’t walk around immune naive!
For those who have been asking, early data regarding COVID hospital admissions out of London. 111/169 new COVID patients were NOT being treated primarily for COVID but rather tested positive upon admission (proportion much higher than previous waves). H/T: @drraghibali
In other words, 111/169 patients incidentally tested positive AFTER being admitted for other conditions. I recommend reading @drraghibali’s thread on the matter and in addition you can read more here: ft.com/content/c14173… and: thetimes.co.uk/article/third-… (GET VACCINATED!)

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More from @sailorrooscout

15 Dec
HKUMed shows Omicron infects and multiplies 70X faster than Delta in the human bronchus, which may explain why it transmits faster, BUT also shows Omicron infection in the lung is significantly LOWER than the original virus, which may be an indicator of lower disease severity. 🧵
They found that Omicron replicates faster than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and Delta in the human bronchus. At 24 hours after infection, Omicron replicated around 70X higher than Delta and the original SARS-CoV-2 virus.
In contrast, Omicron variant replicated LESS efficiently (MORE than 10X lower) in the human lung tissue than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, which may suggest lower severity of disease.
Read 8 tweets
14 Dec
Early data out of SAMRC shows Omicron causes milder symptoms (with recovery within 3 days), two doses of Pfizer ARE effective against hospitalization, AND data indicates that the severity of Omicron is 29% LOWER than D614G (first) wave of COVID-19 infections in South Africa.🧵
This study looks at data from 78,000 Omicron patients in South Africa. There are 38 admissions per 1,000 Omicron cases, compared to 101 admissions per 1,000 for Delta. The proportion of hospitalized patients needing ICU is 13% for this wave compared to 30% in previous waves.
This study found that individuals vaccinated with two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were 70% less likely to be hospitalized with Omicron compared to unvaccinated individuals. While this is LOWER than the protection vs. Delta, PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THE FOLLOWING
Read 13 tweets
13 Dec
People keep asking me my thoughts on Omicron. All I can do is let the data speak for itself. South Africa’s CFR is about to be lower than the UK’s. To note, their death rate is now 1 in 200- the lowest it has been throughout the pandemic and 10x lower than last September.
You can find this and more on Our World in Data and these articles below:
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/co…
fortune.com/2021/12/13/omi…
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…
If you’re going to ask me about Denmark hospitalizations, a QUARTER of those hospitalizations tested positive 48 hours AFTER admission. Not to mention, 14 of those 27 have ALREADY been discharged. That’s already half right there.
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec
If you’re wondering what difference a booster makes, THIS is the key!

An mRNA booster on top of prior infection OR on top of two doses of vaccine confers 30X to 200X HIGHER neutralization titers versus Omicron.

Let’s talk about that! 🧵
NOTE: If you see PMS20, it is an antibody resistant spike designed for purpose of studies.
In regards to infection. Analysis of plasma from convalescent individuals (1M, 6M, and 12M after previous infection) shows substantial Omicron neutralization escape. Remember, again, we are only looking at nAbs.
Read 6 tweets
11 Dec
According to health officials at the CDC and ECDC, the most common Omicron symptoms include cough, fatigue, and a runny nose. The data is an early sign that vaccines ARE continuing to do their job of warding off severe illness. Omicron being “MILDER” is likely DUE TO IMMUNITY.
Yesterday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a report on the first 43 Omicron cases confirmed across 22 US states. The cases were by and large mild. One person was hospitalized, discharged after two days and has already recovered. cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Europe has identified 337 Omicron cases across 21 countries. Each of the cases has been either asymptomatic or mild, and no Omicron deaths have been reported, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said on Wednesday in its latest update. ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events…
Read 6 tweets
10 Dec
Immunity is more than just neutralizing antibodies.
Immunological memory consists of antibodies, memory B-cells, memory CD8+ T-cells, and memory CD4+ T-cells. These responses are what give us enduring protection even against newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.
Immunological memory is probably the most important feature of immunity as it allows us to better respond when the threat is encountered a second time. Against SARS-CoV-2, it helps to determine protection against reinfection, disease risk, and vaccine efficacy.
Read 14 tweets

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