Investing:

It's been a BRUTAL few months for me and @BrianFeroldi (and lots like us)

And yet, the S&P 500 keeps going up

Some ideas and what's going on ⤵️
1) Inflation

For the first time since before I ever cared about it, inflation is a real thing.

That makes investors worry.

There's been a flight to safety. High-flying tech stocks with low current earnings are NOT considered safe
2) Weighing-issues

If you look at how the S&P 500 or Nasdaq are composed, a few companies (FAANG plus Microsoft, Tesla, NVIDIA) play outsized roles.

Many of those stocks haven't suffered. They have record earnings and cash
3) SPAC/IPOs

I doubt any class of stocks is doing worse that recent IPOs and SPACs.

I don't personally hold any recent IPO/SPACs, but many do.

Don't get me wrong: some businesses deserve this huge drop. But all of them?

I'm not sure
4) I'm not that good of an investor

Any honest investor must ALWAYS keep this possibility in mind.

I'd like to think of myself as an honest investor, and this possibility will never go away.
There's no telling when this might change, but it's not affecting my approach to investing much at all.

I've sold out of $ZEN, put it into $U -- and that's about it. Less than 3% of my portfolio.

In the long run, multiples aren't what matter -->creating things people want does
If you want to join a little online community (for FREE) where we talk about these things, subscribe to the YouTube channel @BrianFeroldi and I have.

We come out with 3-4 videos EVERY WEEK

youtube.com/brianferoldiyt…
To review, I believe my own portfolio is down big vs. S&P 500 because:

1) Inflation worries
2) Index weighting issues
3) I could simply be wrong

And yet, I'm not changing my approach

If you like this in video format, we've got that here

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More from @Brian_Stoffel_

15 Dec
I went through what I own and found companies that:

✅Are Anti-Fragile
📉Are at least 30% off All-Time Highs

The list⤵️
1) Zoom $ZM, AF score = 12, 69% off highs
2) Mercadolibre $MELI, 15 score, 41% off highs
3) Sea Limited $SE, 13.5 score, 41% down
4) Cloudflare* $NET, 12 score, 39% down
5) Unity $U, 12 score, 33% down
6) CrowdStrike $CRWD, 13 score, 32% down

*Don't own yet, but want to
If those scores don't make sense to you, @BrianFeroldi and I show you how to use them real-time.

Read 7 tweets
10 Dec
I don't buy stocks once they're over 5% of my portfolio.

But if I did, I'd certainly be buying $AXON today.

Here's why ⤵️
1) Perhaps the best mission statement I've ever seen
2) The core business.

If you're unfamiliar, this company makes

* TASER stun guns
* Axon body cameras
* A whole bunch of software that helps save TONS of time for police and other public servants

That last point is the most important for investors
Read 10 tweets
1 Dec
In 2008, I found @themotleyfool
In 2010, my wife and I retired from teaching

We rolled over our 403(b)s

➡️Balance on 12/31/11 = $31,352
➡️Balance this morning = $310,717

📈That's 891% in ~ 10 years (26% annually)

How I did it, and what I own now⤵️
Holdings from ALL accounts (ex-cash)

1) $SHOP ~18% of portfolio, combined returns 2,600%
2) $MDB 7%, 550%
3) $MELI 7%, 700%
4) $CRWD 7%, 550%
5) $SE 6%, 100%
6) $DDOG 6%, 400%
7) $TEAM 5%, 200%
8) $AXON 5%, 500%
9) $AMZN 5%, 1,700%
10) $U 5%, 100%
11) $VEEV 4%, 700%

Con't
12) $GOOG 4%, 700%
13) $ABNB 3%, 10%
14) $ISRG 3%, 800%
15) $DOCU 3%, 10%
16) $PAYC 3%, 850%
17) $SNOW 2%, 25%
18) $GBTC 1%, 750%
19) $ZEN 1%, 300%
20) $TSLA 1%, 100%
21) $PATH 1%, (5%)
22) $PUBM 1%, 30%
23) $ZM 1%, (15%)
24) $SEMR <1%, (10%)
25) $RSKD <1%, (75%)

HOW I DID IT⤵️
Read 6 tweets
29 Nov
Over the past decade, I've been blessed with:

✅27% annualized returns
📈That's roughly 1,000% total

One of the keys behind those results: Looking for something that's often ignored by analysts...⤵️
OPTIONALITY

The practice of TESTING out a new product or service in an effort to fulfill its mission.

🔴If it doesn't work, it's no big deal -- it was just a test.
🟢If it does work, it's a game-changer.

Critically, the company already needs a wide-moat rev stream to count on
No company is a better example of this than AMAZON $AMZN

In 1999, books and music were the wide moat business. It decided to test:

🔴Amazon Auction (failed)
🟢3rd Party Merchants (huge success)
Read 9 tweets
22 Nov
Admitting your mistakes as an investor is crucial. It makes you:

✅Accountable
✅A better investor.

In that light, when @BrianFeroldi and I reviewed Peloton in June 2021, I liked it so much that I bought shares.

Since then, it dove 60%.

$PTON

Here's what I'm doing⤵️
First, I need to REVIEW MY REASONS FOR BUYING

Because of our YouTube channel, this is pretty easy. Can just pull up the results of my framework, and immediately make changes to the OBJECTIVE variables
Right off the bat, I know there's NO meaningful change to:

1⃣ Concentration Risk
2⃣ Glassdoor Reviews
3⃣ Founder's Role
4⃣ Insider Ownership

🔴Finances, however, changed a ton -- which lowered the company's score to a 9 overall
Read 12 tweets
15 Nov
Market Crashes are Scary 😱

They don't have to be 😌

Here are four actionable steps to transform them
1⃣
2⃣
3⃣
4⃣

A mini-thread⤵️
1⃣Prepare INTELLECTUALLY

If you're around long enough, bad stuff WILL happen.

Our example: Russian Roulette

If you play one round, you have a 83% chance of survival (five empty chambers of six)

But if you agree to five rounds, you only have 40% chance of living
1⃣Prepare INTELLECTUALLY

Let's apply to investing: a 30% drop in market occurs ~once per decade.

Odds of NO 30% drop in one year = 90%

But if you invest for 30 years (as many do), *at least* one such drop is guaranteed. This uses same math as above, but with 9➗10
Read 12 tweets

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