Thread by @TrumpCritic

I made some more calculations.

This time comparing the death rates between #Delta and #Omicron in South Africa.

TL;DR: Death rates so far are fully consistent with a wave of similar (or even higher) severity as Delta.

(1/x)

Studies suggest that patients tend to pass away about 18 days after hospitalization.

thelancet.com/journals/lance…

Since South Africa publishes data on a weekly basis, a 3-week time lag between positive tests and fatalities seems most appropriate.

(2/x)

South Africa uses May 9 as the starting point for the #Delta wave (April 11 seems more appropriate, but let's go with their date).

(3/x)

If we calculate the ratio of cases and deaths during the ascending phase of the #Delta wave with a 3-week lag, we can calculate the ratio as follows:

393 deaths (in epiweek 22) / 19,935 cases (in epiweek 19) = 1.9%

nicd.ac.za/wp-content/upl…

nicd.ac.za/wp-content/upl…

(4/x)

Going on like that we get the following numbers:

EW 23/20: 566 / 24,212 = 2.3%
EW 24/21: 704 / 29773 = 2.4%
EW 25/22: 1032 / 36102 = 2.9%
EW 26/23: 1358 / 59445 = 2.3%
EW 27/24: 1498 / 87937 = 1.7%
EW 28/25: 1655 / 118488 = 1.4%
EW 29/26: 1554 / 146543 = 1.1%

(5/x)

Now let's compare this with the burgeoning #Omicron wave. South Africa uses November 7 as a starting point of the wave (which makes sense).

We have fairly complete data for deaths in epiweeks 48 and 49 and incomplete data for epiweek 50.

(6/x)

The same ratio for the #Omicron wave with the same 3-week time lag is:.

Epiweek 48/45: 104 / 2263 = 4.6%
Epiweek 49/46: 221 / 4741 = 4.7%

With an appropriate time lag, the death rate of #Omicron is HIGHER than in the #Delta wave.

(7/x)

For Epiweek 50, fatality numbers are incomplete and currently stand at 287, will likely be revised upward.

Epiweek 50/47: 287 / 18,775 = 1.5%

Even with this INCOMPLETE number, the death rate is still in line with the #Delta wave when Delta grew most strongly (EWs 24-26).

(8/x)

In summary, the supposedly low death rates so far are fully consistent with a new wave that will be at least as severe as the #Delta wave.

South Africa will hit Delta-level severe outcomes in about 3 weeks from now, and might conceivably go even higher.

(9/x)

I have made the same analysis for hospitalizations with exactly the same result. The data is completely consistent with a wave at least as severe as #Delta.

(10/10)

https://twitter.com/TrumpCritic/status/1472612042003685384

Please note that I have made an updated new thread on the death rates because I had to correct some numbers.

These updates DO NOT change any of the conclusions of this thread.

https://twitter.com/TrumpCritic/status/1473297791636185092

I posted a correction of this thread. The conclusions have NOT changed, but a data lapse has been corrected.

Please find the updated thread below.

https://twitter.com/TrumpCritic/status/1473308317032271875