Thread by @redistrictAZ

Monday 12/20 @ArizonaIRC meeting is live - Watch here: azgov.webex.com/azgov/j.php?MT…

Comment here: forms.gle/3TpBKqcYxXKzJ2…

#FairDistrictsForAll

Racially polarized data update: None

Deciding the agenda
So professional

C Mehl challenges the need for VRA guidance on Congressional plan

Decided to follow C. Mehl direction to postpone E session until additional direction is given to mappers

Word salad from THE @ErikaNeuberg about capturing the "best map"

THE @ErikaNeuberg is looking for competitiveness in D 1 and 6 and moderation in D4 and D8 - w/o detriment to COI

Now to C. Lerner - says she does not have access to the maps created yesterday

C. Lerner summarizes requests made yesterday
Casa Grande, Apache Junction, Maryvale,
Back to D6: Leisure World from D6 to D4; Gold Canyon etc moved;

And more --

IS anyone else cranky the the @ArizonaIRC is less than 56 hours from voting on final maps and there is a "republican vision" and a "democratic vision" and not one united "Arizona vision"?

This really needs to be improved. What are YOUR suggestions?

C. Lerner and mappers sorting out adjustments - Here's the WordCloud and computer-generated time-stamped transcript tinyurl.com/IRCtranscripts from yesterday. So glad Scottsdale Fashion Sq and AZ Country Club were safely redistricted.

THE @ErikaNeuberg says shifts suggested by C Lerner are verging on different COI and less political cohesion

Is "political cohesion" code for political party?

C Lerner moving into adjustments between D1 and D4

To Adjust D1 and D8 between Pinnacle peak and 101

D7 and D9 - to balance
Suggested changes should not affect requests made by Mayor of Yuma - switch pop from 32nd St- suggestions an attempt to reconcile Yuma Gold w/ Latino Coalition proposals.

DR @ndc_doug asks about Fort Yuma - unite all in D7? Agreed.

C. Lerner in Tucson now -- making suggestions to "compromise" on the protrusion in central Tucson - the idea was to unite downtown and UA/

recognizing my deficit in knowing much about how changes affect the maps - recommending @jeremyduda
He knows this stuff. And he also tweets through the meeting.

C Lerner asking about Sun Cities - are we balanced -- D8 does not have Sun City Grand (Hint: take out Glendale)

OK -- the only thing worse for N Glendale being connected w/ Sun Cities is being in CD 9.

Remember at the Glendale hearing this who were there talked about being PHX people - not sun city people?

Oh Well.

And now the REPUBLICANS for ROUND 2
C York - pretty close to being balanced, they feel good about that
Improvement areas
main area CD 3 over pop; CD 8 under pop

Eastern CD 3 boundary at 19th ave - move to 43rd Ave to Orangethorpe - or Missouri if needed for pop- Mappers looking for Orangethorpe - Ah, It's Orangewood, C. York annoyed at mappers
Already been moved

C Mehl Jumps in -move the border south

Bet C York just loves it when C Mehl steps in to explain; just like he #Dougsplains when C Lerner is speaking.

Adjusting a LC districts - "that works just as well" according to the two republican commissioners who have none nothing to establish trust that they are acting in the

interest of anyone who is not a republicans aka "like minded" or "politically cohesive" communities.

Republican Commissioners want to move anthem and New River -- but too many people - asked not to by THE @ErikaNeuberg because of urban, suburban, blah, blah

Make changes - don't go south of 202 says C York

process question: Republicans are trying to get down to very small numbers - C Lerner says shoudl we Democrats be doing the same? Word salad from THE @ErikaNeuberg. C Lerner says - i'll go back - just 1 or 2 places

One last change from Republicans - re: Maryvale (Commissioner Lerner removed it from CD 9)
IF Maryvale is to be unified - unify it in CD 3 and then balance between CD 3 and CD ( in NW corner.. )

Republicans putting Maryvale isn CD 3 - not CD 7
C York talking about the Air Force Base - Military installations and shopping centers -- at least they have priorities

This "finger" is 3.648 people in Surprise being moved into D8 from D9

To balance between D1 and D8 C York says to stay east off the mountain

C York makes a general statement of constitutional criteria and accommodating request from Latino Coalition.

Now C Lerner looking back at narrowing population between districts
CD 8 and CD 9 - Shift Sun City Grand - Not Surprise --

Uniting the west valley retirement communities -as requested from the very beginning of the public input process.

And moving Indian Medical Center into D 3 I think -

C Lerner says there are changes that are needed - but we should move on
Break, E-Session and Recess

Gone - no indication of when they will be back

Rude. But why change now?

Ahhh - they figured out they could tell people (aka "the public") a general reconvene time.

12:45 it is!

Thank you.

AND - the maps are up Look at 12.0 and 12.1
(Hub link:redistricting-irc-az.hub.arcgis.com/pages/final-dr…)

CD 12.0 map is 5R/4D using Timmons, 5D/4R using @PlanScore. Fairly fair from a bias standpoint, though still not as competitive as it should be.

CD 12.1 map is 6R/3D using Timmons, and 5R/3D using @PlanScore, with CD1 truly on the edge, can't really assign it. Pretty darn R, and not so competitive except for CD1.

Draw your own conclusions.. - and make your comments here: forms.gle/3TpBKqcYxXKzJ2…

CD map 12.0 district data using @PlanScore

CD map 12.1 district data using @PlanScore

BACK

Moving on the state legislative map

THE @ErikaNeuberg has no opening comments - wants to listen

C Lerner to go first
reading tea leaves -C Mehl sounds bold and in charge
C Lerner sounds even more reserved.

Starting on @ArizonaIRC 15.0 LD version

To vote, or not to vote. That is the question.

To vote - beginning deliberations of 15.0
5:0

Somehow, I don't think anyone in AZ should feel safe.

C Lerner says she haas a few requests - but only in a few districts.

Asks about Arcadia light
The @ErikaNeuberg interrupts and says it isn't productive to have each side go off - suggests one discussion - vote on each change?

Says more. THE @ErikaNeuberg not going to support --- not exactly sure to tell the truth --

Com Lerner continues to ask that Arcadia be brought into one district. C Mehl announces "we would not support that"

and THE @ErikaNeuberg is making up policy at each paragraph.

This completely sucks.

After the second interruption, C Lerner will go through all the proposed edits. Starts again w/ Arcadia - most already together; talked about "capitalism" - primary economic action - is housing - homes, apartments, etc, home values and income go together

Also In D4 - to capture AZ Country Club - why choose to include one but not another?

D4 - SW corner - to Thomas Rd - brings COOI together

Some Pop balancing -- will make D4 more contiguous and compact; boundaries make more sense, brings neighborhoods together; and improves competitiveness
45,500pop change moving to D4

Scottsdale boundary

THE @ErikaNeuberg interrupts again -- looking for conceptual framework that is behind these district lines

C Lerner says 1) part of it is to try and build a bit of compteitiveness
2) a bigger part is to unite COI
3) just a few districts interest 2, 4, 9, &13 are potentially competitive - could be more balanced
Current iteration has a 17.13 breakdown - focus on community of Interest

THE @ErikaNeuberg is confused -- 2, 4, and 9 are toss-ups she says - not talking about vote spread - but swing elections --

THE @ErikaNeuberg says if you are talking about competitiveness - make sure you reflect impact to other criteria

Now back to C Lerner - to make Gilbert more whole - and some of Chandler

Primary thing on D4 -- C Lerner
Final bits on Arcadia - names several school districts; bring communities together; community was arbitrarily split she says

More from C Lerner - And this was on my list and did not recall opposition yesterday
LD 2 - Deer Valley SD is split in half with changes suggested by C York yesterday - change is only motivated to make district less competitive

I'm back now - what did I miss?

Talking about Lehi Rd.; canal, Country Club,

I did hear THE @ErikaNeuberg say we do not consider the D/R split in the state legislature. That it is not a constitutional criteria.
Does this not fall into the category of "competitiveness"? Which is INDEED a constitutional criteria. Real question.

AND C Lerner said that a change yesterday diminished competitiveness in a district. Is that acceptable if making a district more competitive is not?

AND why does C Mehl get to bark that "this is not something we would support" without articulating exactly what C Lerner has said regarding the constitutional and make a more cogent defense on the very same criteria? Again - real questions.

Now C York is saying the districts are pop balanced. We shouldn't make changes there.

I will point out there are FIVE more constitutional criteria.

Now Chandler and Gilbert line - Some zig-zagging C Lerner says - give overview; N into D 13 should prob. be in this district anyway
AZ Ave north of current district border

THE @ErikaNeuberg chatters about her willingness to consider competitiveness

C Lerner talks about D 13 - Elliot n border? pop shift was purpose for boundary change previously

I sort of wish they would intentionally look at every district with this lens: If we started the whole state map with this district, how would we draw this district?
That way each district would have at least been given an examination of what ideal might look like.

Instead almost every district is a remnant from another district - and all of them damaged by the irrational and indefensible stubborned to "keep Yavapai whole" and the wait for it, wait for it ... the....

#TucsonGerrymander

C Lerner says none of her suggestions are arbitrary - based primarily on uniting communities --
@ndc_doug says we have pop numbers
C Lerner says "I know they are going to be whacked, but didn't;t want to make a lot oof work if these changes were not accepted.

C Mehl says we've looked at this and spent a lot of time oaths and we think it is closer to finished - the 2011 AIRC emphasized competitiveness - by their own measures only 4 districts were competitive. After inappropriate prioritizing that criteria.

Is C Mehl - saying we've already done better than AIRC 2011 - so let's just call it a day?

We were rightly criticized that Gilbert was split 5 ways - only split twice now -- so redoing eat or west valley is not needed.

I hear C Mehl saying this is "good enough" and I don't WANT to make any additional changes

OH wait -- there are a few balancing that needs to happen

I heard nothing about how the map in its current form best meets the constitutional criteria better than the changes just proposed by C Lerner

SAYS THE @ErikaNeuberg I agree Mr. Mehl - there is a lot of good in this map - we have done as much as we can for most communities.

C Lerner - to be clear - i was not making major overhauls - I made suggested changes to four districts -

and C Lerner says on competitiveness LD 16 is 0:9; another is 2:7 - they may have vote spread, but they do not swing...
A difference in perspective

THE @ErikaNeuberg says the narrower the vote spread the easier for a breakout candidate to win -

It is just SO VERY distressing that at this point listening to @ErikaNeuberg falls into the category of a man on the street interview - has an opinion- mostly meaningless

And now @ndc_doug is explains another way to understand the competitiveness measures. 50 hours and counting... AND while true partisan balance is not a constitutional criterion, it is a good indicator that the thumb has been on the scale when defining squishier criteria, like COI

It should be a warning light.

ohhh - here we are -- protecting for the record the reasons that we suggested changes IT WAS NOT for partisan advantage

C York talking about AZ Country Club - Arcadia light is not like that

Gotta hand it to him, C York KNOW the golf/country club communities.

THE @ErikaNeuberg reiterates that there is no magic line at the 101

Moving on

C York - ASU West (43rd Ave and Thunderbird) can go w/ a Latino Coalition district - place in LD 27 -

C York says it would fit w/ a minority district

was there any public comment from the semi-conducutor industry? Or is this like the retail commercial real estate interest - just a personal priority of C York? another stand it for baked in social, economic and racial prejudice in city/urban planning?

C York - concentrated on pop balancing moving pop in 3, 28, 27 ???

Love C York adjusting Latino Coalition districts because he thinks populations fit well with them. What does that mean?

And C York talks about "our maps"

Says it all, doesn't it?

C Mehl has one last - non-controversial issue related to White Mountain - !!!

THE @ErikaNeuberg says she is focused on keeping lD 4 very competitive... Why? I don't really ant to hear her answer, but why that district and not the other 29?

What is C. Mehl focusing on this endnote the LD 6 and Ld 7 BIG QUESTION? Did I mis that?

Break until 2:40

BACK
THE @ErikaNeuberg suggests each side lay out their suggestions

Each side

Not at all a team

THE @ErikaNeuberg says we will begin locking in - but better ideas can unlock it

I think we should go back to grid maps.

Not really -
C York wants to recap his suggestions ANF C Lerner says I did not give street by street dissections but I could
C York interrupts her and says we did the same thing and then walks through the line by line road shifts

Sidelining conversation about LD 6 and LD 7

Until?? when exactly

C York talking about Pebble Creek Golf Course Village -- it's almost like these golf course are clients of @EwingLandscapes

C York - for the record Commissioner York is generation #3 of @EwingLandscapes a 4 generation family owned business..
#Integrity

Now talking about the "surprise finger"

Between the business interests of Commissioner Mehl in Pima and Pinal Counties (and maybe others) and Commissioner York statewide through @EwingLandscapes - I'm guessing EVERY state and local Chamber of Commerce member is dancing in the streets...

Focus on Lehi - a subdivision/neighborhood in Mesa?

IF ONLY every community had such attention. Like the Navajo Nation and the other 21 Am Indian tribes and nations in Arizona.

THE @ErikaNeuberg changing gears - calling for option to move to where compromise is - does not want to have different maps at the end of the day .. She is irritated - she has not created a process she likes

Notice C York and the other republicans make suggestions and frame them as tweaks - Whatever C Lerner suggests is framed as an overhaul

THE @ErikaNeuberg wants to do "due diligence"
perhaps it will be robust, and deeply felt

C Lerner just mentioned using the demographic map -- once they are done -- they should overlay that and see where there may be some sore thumbs -- IF they conducted their deliberations as a team and in public - they would have already done that.

I simply can not keep up with every patronizing/matronizing? statement THE @ErikaNeuberg makes to C Lerner. Asks if she is interested in input form her colleagues .. and on cue C York calls it aggressive and rattles of history and past line agreements

C Lerner says she doesn't know how to identify impact on competitiveness on changes..

backing up a few thousand feet - it is clear the Republicans are defending their position on the districts - they like what they have and are satisfied. Any change threatens their "wins" to date. And to be clear their "wins" are strictly partisan.

And on cue, C Mehl pipes in how he doesn't like the change --

And does not give any criteria other than: he. does. not. like. it.

And now he is pushing for Republican changes to D2. It "wouldn't change the dynamic" much. C Lerner pushes back. He moves to question changes in D 13.

Estimated goes from 7.2 to 5.4 vote spread
C Lerner says she does not see compelling reason to change LD 2 - a BIG change is being proposed she says

C Mehl pushes back - Surprise!
Deer Valley made the imbalance says C Lerner - remove Deer Valley instead of moving ASU

Push me - pull you
On CD 3 /Deer Valley/ ASU etc. etc.

Bottom Line: ABSOLUTELY nothing suggested by the republican commisisoners has nothing to do with anything but partisanship. Even suggestions of pop balancing are for partisan advantage.

Also noticing the @timmonsgroup does not pull up the detail map to demonstrate points made by C Lerner -- they take very word of C York as gospel and show the area. Case in point - making Deer Valley whole

Now C York says we've worked hard to accommodate your adjustment - you continue to
I Have business around Deer Valley airport - says C York - I "believe" it belongs in D2.

I suspect that C. Lerner has dealt with men less smart than she is the entirety of her career. And her she is again.

And here we are - THE @ErikaNeuberg weighs in - she would like to incorporate and just "see it"

Like the requests for CD 6 made by C Mehl -- that still stand...

Moving to LD 6 and LD 7
C Mehl is talking - I am not hopeful - talking about under-populating the district by spitting Flagstaff

And someone would take "solace" - C Mehl wants to deal "more fairly" with this part of our great state

C Mehl is telling VC Watchman what is best for the Am Indian population

VCWatchman says in this area we are looking to use the VRA to support the NN and the other tribes to protect the ability to elect

C Mehl says I 'appreciate that" but teh 75K in the White Mountains are also part of great state!

and babble now from THE @ErikaNeuberg

complimenting C Mehl for his compromise proposal

Can I just point out - He is NOT COMPROMISING - he is advocating for an alternative COI to the VRA Native American voters. This is not a equal discussion

VC Watchman says Native Am Indian have beer coi w/Show Low, Pinetop, and other communities, than they do w/ Flagstaff - yes there are econ interest -- But it is not the same as Pine Top, Show Low

THE @ErikaNeuberg calls the proposal by C Mehl "wonderful"

THE @ErikaNeuberg is saying even if YOUR representative isn't really interested in YOUR issues, there may be other representatives ion other parts of the state who will be helpful

WAIT -- isn't this EXACTLY why the @SALCLeaders said wasn't acceptable and why THEY MUST

MIUST, MUST have a republican representative for Tucson --

By head is exploding

And she said that in relationship to a discussion related to a VRA district for the American Indian population

And C Mehl sings his praises that he has done so much in this process

Please turn and look at the fire....

C Lerner wants to talk about LD 17 - THE @ErikaNeuberg puts it off

Break - Coming Back to Congress after break

Back from Break - On CD
C Mehl is speaking on why "their" map is so good
He s very, very proud. Liars and cheats usually are.

Now C York is speaking to the perfection that is "their map"

Listening to C York - it as if he is reading a check list.
Check Check Check Check Check Check Check Check Check Check Check Check CheckCheck Check Check Check Check CheckCheck Check Check Check Check Check Check Check Check Check Check Check CheckCheck Check Check Check Check

C York on hte Dem LD 4 map - does not make sense because those are the fastest growing areas of the state. And C Mehl says Maryvale and Tucson are split.

#TucsonGerrymander

C Lerner addresses the "concerns" raised by republicans
Says this is a compromise map
On Competitiveness: 4/4/1 map

Still needs adjustment -- D2 especially - looks good - Likes Casa Grande whole w/ Florence, Coolidge, Sacaton

VC Watchman calls out the nice recognition of urban and rural to the extent possible; beleives Tucson may need more discussion about where to divide it..

C Lerner -- 12.0 a compromise - closer to draft map - and very close to balance

And Now THE @ErikaNeuberg - likes 12.1 for CD 3 / Tucson divide; and an area in Phx in CD 8 - state trust land better treated - Did not understand map 12. 0 - moving Cave Creek and Carefree - motivation was about balancing partisanship and focus on competitiveness

we are not considering balance between R/D so that is not a selling point

Says she is by no means comfortable w/ CD 6 in 12.1

OK -- so C Mehl was given "free reign" to create the "ideal" but C Lerner and Dems were confined to recommendations

C Lerner says 12.1 will be very hard for us to compromise. A map that begins with a 6:3 split leaves very little room for compromise.

THE @ErikaNeuberg says - sorry - this is the direction we are going --

and closes with everything os on the table

Mehl and York move and second to adopt 12.1 as the next map.
C Lerner says this is struggle. Competitiveness is a constitutional criteria

3:2 Republicans win 12. 1 it is

C Mehl starts talking about D7 and VRA --

C Lerner asks to adjourn for the day before additional adjustments are made.

THE @ErikaNeuberg notes it is 4:44 and this is doable.

C Lerner moves to adjourn. C Mehl says there are admin actions before adjournment.

THE @ErikaNeuberg says "we are not that far"

Adjourned: 4:46