Thread by @redistrictAZ

Ready for more abuses by the @ArizonaIRC? Their next meeting starts soon. Watch here: azgov.webex.com/azgov/j.php?MT…
Comment here: forms.gle/zoUqW3F5iUJhN8…

Question of the day: How many opinions regarding competitiveness will @ErikaNeuberg share today?

Live:

So the two lawyers @royherreraphx and @DanArellanoAZ on the Dem Team from @BallardSpahrLLP just started their own firm. How does the work? Congratulations?

Starting with Congress 12.1
And David Mehl is talking. he has suggestions for D6 and D6 and D7.

It's going to be a very long day.
C. Lerner - very concerned about where we are in the process. Very disappointed and frustrated. Was optimistic a year. ago. have worked in good faith. The vote yesterday was a direct vote to move farther away from the draft maps.

It (12.1) does not reflect compromise. No excuse she says fro drawing a 6:3 maps for either party. From a Dem perspective. It will be difficult to make competitive.

Geographic boundaries have not been respected.
Do not see how to fix this map - w/o blowing up the map and there is not time - or desire from the commission.

Significant concerns about the selection of this map. Too many areas locked in.

Ohhhh @ErikaNeuberg is sorry she feels that way.

Waffling - I made clear I did not endorse the changes
My perspective - I find a map that allows either party to win. Looking to "perfect" the map. Especially likes CD 1

talks about urban and true rural -- She thinks
CD 4 is a great fit for S E Valley - synergy - a natural ally to city of Phx
To be honest the only thing I see is D6 bec. of one iteration of highly competitive to another measure of competitive

She rejects that this is biased and unfounded - she is proud and wants to prefect it.

As a follow up - C Lerner - reiterates - this is not a fair and balanced map
Show me a Dem leaning district
Dems have n=been as packed into as few districts as possible

Commissioner Lerner is not backing down -
D 7 and D3 are packed in - all the swings are in R favor which is why this is a true 6:3 map
I disagree that these districts can be '
We got locked out of adjusting D9 and D2 very early on - despite clear and strong testimony

That has been the problem in developing this map -- we have been very open - we have done everything we can to work with this commission
I am interested to hear your suggestions-- Our suggestions would balance, create competition, COI, geographic, compact -- we were shut out.

We won't accept a D 1 or a D7 - etc. look forward to seeing what you change
THE @ErikaNeuberg LIKES this map and challenges the Dem commissioners to engage or not

THE @ErikaNeuberg likes "her maps" says do what you want - play or not play

C Lerner asks where D 4 has been made more competitive; D 8 is not even in the ballpark --
THE @ErikaNeuberg says that was to satisfy #MayorKate
C Lerner says - not so

too bad the @ArizonaIRC under the pretend leadership of @ErikaNeuberg didn't have these real conversations months ago
C Lerner: Curious how we choose which elected officials we choose to listen to?

Of course we will sit a listen - says C Lerner -- w

THE @ErikaNeuberg says we see our constitutional responsibilities differently - calls C Lerner partisan ! Is pained that agreement is about 2 districts are within .5 perfect of a vote spread

The @ErikaNeuberg wants everyone to feel good about it.

Lay back and like it?

C Lerner says you chose this map - you tell us how you want to fix it.

C York talks about defending the constitution - competitiveness _not to the detriment" they tried hard to listen to the commissioner and work around the VRA constituents -- he just said that

C York says we can't change Globe and East Mesa - we've done a nice job for all parties

reiterates competitiveness canard...

C Lerner - we did everything we could to participate -- but this is not a starting point

C Lerner - There was room for negotiation on other maps - this has no room -- Competitiveness is a legal requirement --

Now C Mehl jumps in
C Lerner says I'm not done - I've been interrupted a lot

I agrees says C Lerner - w/ C York - people live where they live -

Throughout the process the Rep districts have become less competitive and the Dem districts have become more competitive and packed.

And BTW - we have not even tried to define "to significant detriment"

C Lerner - this is not because our map didn't get selected - it's about getting to fair maps.

VC Watchman - we ref. tribal communities - I agree w/ Lerner

VC Watchman I have come to the table in good faith - comparing tribal communities with golfers and gardeners -- how to allow for tribal neighbors to get past Covid19 - real challenges from history

.. in the nation and the state -- can not diminish the sovereignty of tribal nations - we are dual citizens and must co-exist
I have not been completely ignored -- I put onto table CD 2 - for the tribal nation - it was rejected form the get-go (required the Yavapai split)

Spliting Yavapai would have created the opportunity for the Indian Comm to elect a candidate of their choice

Putting that not he record. The basis of these decisions will have long-term impacts -- we think in terms of seven generations

Yes its about improving economics and landscapes - but to live in decent homes, paved, vs. unpaved roads.

VC watchman - represent and improve the situations of the indigenous population and the state

my big disagreement his the Yavapai split - for point of clarification and record.

THE @ErikaNeuberg is ready to make improvements
Not completely certain about the borders of CD 3 - give more thought to specific boundaries
CD4 - loves SO MUCH about it

Says she has no idea why her dem colleagues have any problem wiht it

Yes we need changes to CD 6 - will my dem colleagues help with this>

WOW! @ErikaNeuberg acknowledges anger and frustration

AMAZINGLY - says C Mehl we have already created competitive districts - even better than AIRC in 2011

36 hours and hopefully I will never have to hear his voice again.

C Mehl is willing to consider small adjustments to CD 6 and Cd 7 - doesn't know how it will move the needle
Looking to pack more dems

I feel like I am personally being assaulted.

And here we go -- back to Algernon -- there has to be a play in here someplace -- He offers this to fo the right thing for CD 6 and Cd 7

C Mehl calls his suggestions "excellent"
THE @ErikaNeuberg prompts for rationale in Const. criteria language

C Lerner says Algernon is not a compromise - calling it one after going farther east - doesn't make it so

C Mehl again cuts of C Lerner -- that's twice today
So far

SO THE @ErikaNeuberg asks C Lerner what her ideal boundary would be

C Mehl -- while we are waiting could we get numbers on CVAP from these changes

Now C Mehl and C York are directing the mappers how to draw the maps

C Lerner says we would never agree to

THE @ErikaNeuberg says but they like it in the LD map -- there is a different of 550,000

Is she really this dense?
A CD has 794,611 people an LD has 238,383 people

C Lerner suggests they look at lines in 12.0 just for Tucson

Also concerning about CD 6 is Casa Grande whole -- Our Comp piece was still R leaning

C Mehl jumps in - THE @ErikaNeuberg responds to him

First time

THE @ErikaNeuberg says by the end of the day they will have a vision.

says to C Lerner prove to me your improvements are better

C Lerner says we probably can not compromise w/o making Casa Grande whole

C Lerner - The lines in Tucson could be adjusted to balance
THE @ErikaNeuberg - says I have been abundantly clear -- only one map - but either side could play out their solutions

Listening to THE @ErikaNeuberg

THE @ErikaNeuberg says I don't know what side can get me where i want to be

York says CD 6 and Cd 7 are balanced

C Mehl is overtaking C Lerner - again
Accuses C Lerner of making only partisan arguments
As usual she calmly dismantles the challenges.
THE @ErikaNeuberg says it is our job to change districts

C York says -- one really great thing is that this would create one border district -- it would bring one representative on all the border issues

C Lerner comes back to - yes, we need new lines and yes, we should look at history - this has served us well - How does this make it better

C Lerner - says no -- these are not compromises. I don't feel comfortable having a massive change to the LC district in CD 7

Ohhh and now THE @ErikaNeuberg is saying we are working in good faith? Who is exactly working in good faith?

Oh she can't do better than a 1.2 spread and all six const. criteria -- if not then others are losing track of our goal.

Again, C Lerner says Algernon is not a compromise.
And bring up our proposed boundaries. Not clear why we think it is okay to split Casa Grande

Recess

How is it OKAY for the Republicans to blow up CD 7 to protect CD 6? And C Lerner can not address keeping Casa Grande whole? Or splitting Yavapai fucking county?

No recess yet --

Dr @ndc_doug shows some change
I notice that @timmonsgroup mapping is quick on the draw to show every line change uttered by C York - not so much for hte Dem Commissioners

C Lerner says 2:7 is not really competitive

C Mehl says C Lerner is absurd -- If this doesn't satisfy you says C Mehl - I want to go back to Algernon

THE @ErikaNeuberg wants to calm things down --- lectures C Lerner
Calls for recess NOW - 15 minutes

1,010 years ago, before my husband died, we went to counseling and at one point he revealed that his mode of negotiating was to ask for everything. And then fight every small change. That, he said, "is just how you get what you want." I burst into tears.

Our marriage was not a business negotiation, our lives were united in a common bond and we should both be considering what was best for the whole.

I see C Mehl has perfected the mode of asking for everything - and more -that you want - and fighting any small change that takes away from that.
In this case, fair and competitive districts are lost for a decade. on a 3:2 vote.

But much self-congratulations in R-circles.

My husband, to his credit, changed. At least in his negotiating practices with his wife.

I do not expect to see such personal growth on the part of Commissioner Mehl.

Message from the AZ Dem Party
I agree with every word. Wish I had written it:
PHOENIX – In response to the Independent Redistricting Commission's split vote in favor of proceeding with a draft Congressional map with a 6 - 3 Republican advantage, Arizona Democratic

Party Executive Director Charlie Fisher released the following statement:

"As the Arizona GOP has become a proving ground for far-right extremist politicians, Independent Redistricting Commission Chair Erika Neuberg has delivered them the gift of the most imbalanced,

gerrymandered congressional map that Arizona has seen in a generation.

Democratic Commissioners Shereen Lerner and Derrick Watchman have negotiated in good faith, taking Neuberg at her word that as Chair she would give voice to Democrats, Independents and Republicans.

However, the past weeks have revealed that she was never interested in upholding the criteria for fair and competitive maps clearly outlined in our constitution, choosing instead to undermine the voting power of Arizonans and drawing a 6-3 congressional map

in favor of an increasingly-radicalized Republican Party.

Despite having changed her registration from Republican to Independent in 2016, it is now all too clear that Chair Neuberg is a partisan in sheep’s clothing.

After two decades of the IRC successfully fulfilling its mission to take the power to draw districts away from politicians, Chair Neuberg has abandoned her role as nonpartisan arbiter and negated the voting strength of Independents and Democrats throughout the state.

She has been an active participant in the Republican Commissioners' efforts to achieve a warped congressional map so gerrymandered, it might as well have been drawn by a Republican legislature.

If this congressional map, or a map resembling it, is passed,

the legacy of Chair Neuberg and the 2021 IRC will be one of rank partisanship that enabled the rising extremism in the Arizona Republican Party, prioritizing it above the needs of Arizonans."

While the @ArizonaIRC is still on break"
At the December 17th meeting, one of Commissioner’s York’s change requests was to move the community of Liberty, which is near Buckeye, from the Latino majority-minority VRA district of LD23 to the safe Republic district of LD25.

Jeremy Duda of the “Arizona Mirror” tweeted that moving Liberty from LD23 to LD24, moves GOP State Senator Kerr from a Democratic district into a Republican one.

It is not legal to take an incumbent’s address into consideration when drawing district lines.

According to the address on Republican State Senator Kerr’s Campaign Finance Report, her address was in LD25 in LD Test Map Version LD 13.1, then moved to LD23 in LD Test Map Version 14.0. Her address is now back in LD25 in LD Test Map Version 15.0.

Add this to the #TucsonGerrymander and other self-dealing taking place in the name of fair and competitive districts.

BACK NOW

C Mehl is talking - this means he is probably lying...
In Tucson area - we have gone almost entirely to the 12.0 boundaries - asks for @ndc_doug if this is a competitive district?
C Lerner says - I am not sure it is his decision -- 2/7 v 4./5

THE @ErikaNeuberg says "so we are moving into the right direction."

C Lerner 'jokes' we could live w/ a 7/2 split in favor for Dems, C Mehl - if that would be ok with you. Fell flat...

C Lerner repeats we are trying very hard to compromise. Makes case to make Casa Grande whole.

By splitting CG - there is a strong COI argument -- unless we are allowed to do that --

OMG THE @ErikaNeuberg is insufferable

C Lerner answers - allows pop balance and aligns COI in CD 6 and CD 7 - greater respect for geography and compactness. It will affect other districts because of pop imbalance. I though we agreed we did not want an arm into Pinal Co.

Oh, THE @ErikaNeuberg is now being snarky. Asks C Lerner to explain why this would "solve all our problems"

C Lerner says - it would not -- and we have a very big compromise - still believe Casa Grande split is dangerous constitutionally
1) keep the arm -
2) go into Tucson w/ these boundaries

ESRI bug slowing things done

C Lerner says we need the arm --

ESRI glitch creates opportunity for another recess.
Really surprising there are not additional important issues for the @ArizonaIRC to discuss

Or opinions of THE @ErikaNeuberg to be heard

C York on live mic - "let's get legal first"

Back Now

THE @ErikaNeuberg sets up the intense discussion between CD 6 and CD 7 and recites the constitutional criteria

Now C Lerner - Bisbee/ Douglas -- noting that Santa Cruz, like Yavapai wanted to be whole

C Lerner giving line directions to the mappers

C Lerner - for the record U area seems to be south

Now C York is directing C Lerner what her changes require

Balances one district; the other over 600+; 2.03 spread; 5:4 republican swing
C Lerner says this is much more a competitive district than a 2:7

This is my recommendation for this area;

THE @ErikaNeuberg wants to hear the criteria.
C Lerner says this is not the optimum choice. It is a complete compromise. It does a better job in Tuscon. But D6 is still a mess.

This is ugly.Not compact, but Tucson is better represented

And now C Mehl - says this does a bad job of uniting communities -- our map was better. This gains nothing. Competitiveness is a rounding error difference.

C Mehl asks to stall on these issues and go on to other areas. Are there other areas w/ big issues.

THE @ErikaNeuberg says happy to move around the map - and senses this is the biggest area.

Oh Good THE @ErikaNeuberg reiterates what she wants out of Cd 6 and Cd 7
Competitiveness - viable and vibrant COI, no great inherent incompatibilities, excited about the possibility

I wonder if she thinks saying shit like this makes her sound smart.

And THE @ErikaNeuberg says she has no changes to make to CD 9 or Cd 2

C Lerner has swap for Cd 4 and CD5; Also CD 1 and 3
And Cd 9 and CD 2

C Lerner - says let's come back to this CD 6 and Cd 7

ON CD 4 and CD 5 - Leisure world was to be in D5, but that did not happen
C York pipes up -- it is considerable pop. C Lerner - they had been in D4 all along until C York made changes
C York pipes up on Competitiveness

Republicans challenge C Lerner on effort to accommodate COI in this area - that has been accommodated in every version until this one.

THE @ErikaNeuberg thinks its great

C York is talking - golf courses and shopping centers.
C Lerner - and yes - they all wanted to be in D4 - gives mappers street boundaries

THE
@ErikaNeuberg
asks where C Lerner is going w/ this. I have been on record of liking this district CD 4 - so much going right

IS SHE REALLY THIS DENSE?

And every time she is pushed to explain - C Lerner does so in great detail

C Lerner giving directions - C York says "splits Chandler": C Lerner says Chandler is already split; unites a community that has been split right down the middle

THE
@ErikaNeuberg
says she is comfortable entertaining this change
C York - Hamilton HS -
C Lerner says extend west
C Mehl - says this does nothing - challenges to be shown where the minority community is in the area - don't have to make this big move

AND C York asks about competitiveness

CD 4 discussion continuing
THE @ErikaNeuberg pipes up about the "remarkable" "synergistic" relationship to empower them, noting to inhibit the growth of these communities to achieve political expression
C Lerner reiterates why better aligned w/ CD 4

THE @ErikaNeuberg asks is the republicans are willing to accommodate C Lerner.
C York says moving a conservative retirement community out of one district and replacing it with a different community - opposes moving the retirement communities out of D5

CLerner - Somewhere along the line your position was that these communities should be in this district - until it became competitive - and then it moved. Now we are trying to align similar COI - as they have expressed the desire to be together

Vote spread in D4
before changes - 4.9
after changes - 7.24 and still underpopulated 8,600 - could balance and reduce vote spread

THE @ErikaNeuberg asks where - would the other democrats go?

C Mehl threatens C Lerner - "When we get to CD 1 and we find communities to be moved... and happens to increase vote spread, will you be comfortable with that?" She says as long as it is not about a shopping mall -- goes back to CD 6 and CD 7 and Dem/Rep splits

There are four strong Rep districts - Speaking to me about competitiveness when you already have all double digits - I don't think is aa fair argument

Com Mehl and C York and THE @ErikaNeuberg try to box Commissioner Lerner into a box -- if you like this on this district - you have to let us do X on these other districts - when they themselves have not been consistent ever on anything

And now a babble of word salad from THE @ErikaNeuberg about faulty data driving decisions

Now C York directing changes to D4 0

Kudos to @timmonsgroup for checking w/ C Lerner as to who was now directing

Says C York - D 5 is more uncompetitive. C Lerners says D5 was already uncompetitive.

C York wants to go back to Tucson -- is that his call?

THE @ErikaNeuberg wants to pause on D4 and competitiveness - blah, blah -- these coi would be harmed by competitiveness

Does she hear herself?

THE @ErikaNeuberg on CD 5 -- in her mind blah, blah

D1 D 4 D6 will be the balance of the state?
What is THE @ErikaNeuberg talking about?

THE @ErikaNeuberg says a win if we can shave percentages off AS LONG AS IT does not cause significant detriment

C York calls for lunch break after noting they have been working on this since February.

Lunch break - Back at 1:15

In case you have a really strong constitution and are willing to stand vigil as the Republicans put the final touches on "their maps" here's the you tube link:

And the comment link for today's meeting: forms.gle/zoUqW3F5iUJhN8…

A little levity to share while we wait for the @ArizonaIRC to reconvene from lunch

Ahhh - and in case you need to review the many opinions of THE @ErikaNeuberg on competition - the transcripts (tinyurl.com/IRCtranscripts) and WordCloud from yesterday

BACK
MORE ON Draft Map discussion in CD

"diving deep into the borders"

C York as a statement fro the record -- about uniting sr. living communities - missed 3; now missing 12 "that he can count"

lists them all - Check, check, check,

C Lerner - wondered why moved from D5 to D4 - and all had requested to be in D5
C York - weren't all together?
tit for tat - if they go down this road, I'm putting my bet on C Lerner
Once again, C Lerner finishes her statement although C York wants to cut her off

Now C York telling C Lerner better ways to do what she wants to do -- which is what we had previously

C Lerner reiterates - trying to unite a community in D4 - happy to compromise
THE @ErikaNeuberg seeks clarifications what impacts these changes have in other places.
C Mehl asks for additional issues

C Lerner brings up D3 - asks THE @ErikaNeuberg for her recommendations - brings up THE @PhxDistrict4 recommendations

C York asking for CD 3 CVAP = 50.56

Does anyone else remember Dr. Laura Handley telling them not to use a flat 50% number of CVAP - to go district by district

C Lerner has suggestions from the city of Glendale - CD 1 will still be R leaning

CD 3 had been to Northern - City of Glendale - mayor and two council members asked that CD 3 include Glendale between 43rd and 75th Aves and Northern and Camelback - all should have this letter

C York says - was in the LC original request - we took pop out to accommodate C Lerner request

THANK YOU C Lerner --we are long way away for LC V 1 -- we are now a LV V 4 - she says

Affects NOTHING in the north - endorsed w/ Latino Coalition

C York challenges request - moving. adding.

City of Glendale makes pitch -- N and S or Northern different communities - Just FYI Mayor Weirs is and Republican - interesting this request did not go to the Republican commissioners - or receive interest from them

#Liberty !

to compensate for Glendale border shifts
Indian School west of 16th to McDowell - says mixed pop, and works nicely
CD 3 needs more pop balancing

Small adjustment to Glendale request ; moving population

THE @ErikaNeuberg hits please explain how/why this makes these districts better to C Lerner
And so she does

THE @ErikaNeuberg checks in on the Melrose community

Moving grains of sand against hurricane strength winds

C Mehl says we have tried to be patient - we are under as much pressure as C Lerner - we are "totally opposed to the changes" or are you willing to reject these changes?

The @ErikaNeuberg is quite comfortable they have made adequate accommodations to #mayorKate - she loves DC 1

Says there is an "incredible sweet spot"
To change CD 1 would require great conviction we're messing something up

Only willing to consider fine tuning

And here we are back to 9:30 am

C York has suggestions re: N boundary of CD 3
67th Av to Northern

C York is unimpressed with @ndc_doug and @timmonsgroup -- he is faster than they are

Oh - he was looking to take it n of Northern

This process completely sucks

C York's proposed changes would move Maryvale into CD 9
So then, (the Republicans say) If we can't make this change to get something we want, hen you can't make this change.

C Lerner in position to choose Maryvale whole and Glendale request - choose one or the other

The three Republicans will not consider both

THE @ErikaNeuberg defends CD 1 and says the MOC in DC 1 and CD will cooperate on the needs of the "urban" persons. Based on experinece she says this I am sure.

The @ErikaNeuberg pushes C Lerner to say what is your criteria fro competitiveness
C Lerner says I have consistently said within 2% --

The @ErikaNeuberg establishes for the record that C Lerner is creating a very narrow window for competition - names noise in the data
C Lerner says I have flexibility as well - in this map we will end up with two comp districts 4/5
- being honest w/ my perspective

If we keep what we did in CD 6 and CD 7 - which is not what we asked for
D2 another 4/5 district - and these changes did not start w/ Competitiveness

C Lerner - I understand what you are saying - I understand as a social scientist as well... this map has four VERY safe R districts and 2 VERY safe D districts;

C Mehl says we haven't accepted the changes - so I do not know where we are at
and THE @ErikaNeuberg says

that's not how I see things - and if we make decisions on that we are not doing our duty

I DEEPLY care about competitiveness she says @ErikaNeuberg

C Lerner says this was my last request - it is a VRA request

and it sounds like we will not honor what the city of Glendale asked for or requests from the latino Coalition

C Mehl - says his practical streak says we have said as much as we can -- if I was to move to incorporate the changes whey have offered - pushes for an answer NOW

THE @ErikaNeuberg says For NOW - because she has to think more about CD 6

C Lerner is holding her ground on all fronts today - truly impressive
@ndc_doug says there is a way to rotate the population in 3/8/9
THE @ErikaNeuberg - D! voted from 3 dems - why is that not good enough

The other question that could be asked of the Republicans - is why do you have to take the most of everything, everywhere?

C Mehl @ArizonaIRC clearly thinks he is in charge -- Force the two Dem Commissioners to support these horrible maps with the very minor, so minor as to be microscopic, changes - or we will simply enact the maps as they are.

Interestingly, he does not consider THE @ErikaNeuberg would have any daylight with his position. Despite occasional soliloquies (all of them mostly unbearable) this is the truth. She will go along - with enough words to make her feel like she as added something of substance.

On Noise and Bias in Redistricting -- we actually wrote something on that -- well actually @UpRiseDotOrg did -- you can read it here: swingleftmaricopa.org/phone/bias_and…

"...there are six different criteria for this process, one of which requires strict conformance (compliance with the Constitution and the Voting Rights Act), and five that are criteria that should be met “to the extent practicable.”

There are tradeoffs and tensions between these last five criteria. For instance, a focus on “compactness” could diminish “competitiveness.” And some are particularly tricky to define in precise quantitative terms (such as the

important notion of respecting “communities of interest.”)

The complexity of this task makes assessment difficult and makes large variation (“noise”) inevitable across proposed district maps. So, when boundaries are drawn here, how can we assess them,

knowing that any resulting district map will reflect both the biases of those drawing it, and the inevitable variation of the choices for different maps?

The first thing to check for is bias, since this is more straightforward than handling noise.

One might anticipate Republican-leaning groups (including the mapping firm that has been hired) would propose districts that, given past performance, would likely change the partisan representation in their preferred direction.

I expect that every progressive group will check for this immediately. And in the unlikely event that Timmons/NDC chose districts that would favor Democrats, there would be a loud shout from Republicans (and a confused response from Democrats).

Beyond that, it will be much more difficult to reduce the “noise” of idiosyncratic choices for map boundaries. It will take a more detailed study of proposed district maps. What is in common between these maps, and what differs? Are the differences essential, or arbitrary?

What trade-offs are being made? What implicit assumptions (for instance, about communities of interest) are being made? A map by itself will be impossible to assess without some explanation of the process that went into making it.

The Times article notes that averaging is often used to reduce the effect of noise, a common approach in many endeavors. For instance, in the analysis of brain waves, averaging of experimental trials is often done.

It would be far more difficult to “average” maps. That being said, a serious analysis of multiple proposed maps could note what principled assumptions were in common between them and try to find some good middle ground.""" Read the whole piece from the link.

But we do know - Commissioner Lerner is correct. As these maps have evolved they have become more Republican. Is that Bias? or Noise? Or both? THE @ErikaNeuberg curious minds want to know!

BACK

Seems like THE @ErikaNeuberg is back at CD 6

C Mehl wants to look at D4 again -- they have been unhappy all day w/ changes in D4
CYork - Go back to 12.1 - move these boundaries

CLerner pushing back - Latino community should not be in CD 5
C York - keeps Asian community
C Mehl says we have been patient with you all day
C Lerner Please don't patronize me
C York We are not patronizing you C Lerner

C Lerner says we can not accept any change like that. Here's why...
Previously mentioned before break - N Scottsdale
I'm lost but this is contentious

THE @ErikaNeuberg owns this cluster -- hope she is enjoying it

I Hope THE @ErikaNeuberg is relishing this mess - because all of AZ will suffer the consequences for the next decade.

And it began the day she accepted the LIES that brought the #TucsonGerrymander into the process for the LD plan -- and then the CD 6 visualization

and then the Liberty move.

She owns every mistake, abuse, and exploration of the process.

Well THE @ErikaNeuberg shares some of this with @dougducey who corrupted the application and appointment process; and of course the corrupt and unapologetic Commissioner Mehl.

WOW - I am stunned THE @ErikaNeuberg is standing up for a diverse community instead of a retirement community

C York 45 retirement communities - split between D4 andD5 -- did we hear any of this dung the many public hearings -- the reitrement communities in the WEST valley asked to be united and they are not. Because of the protected WHOLE Yavapai county.

I do not recall this being an issue in the EAST valley - except for in Gilbert.

Retirees and Hispanics! Duke it out!

And C York falls back to respecting "the map that we approved" 12.1

And now THE @ErikaNeuberg is chatting about nonsense - she spoke to Jennifer Chau - remarkably excited about democracy

I LOVE C York talking about what he heard on the public tour - was he at three of them?

Perhaps he was reading through our transcripts - because you know what? The @ArizonaIRC does not have timely transcripts. ::: tinyurl.com/IRCtranscripts

NOW c York wants to be consistent?

C York is stuck on the retirement communities --
C Lerner - there are MANY retirement communities in this area -- they are all over -- we keep re-litigating the one corner vs. the east side.
C Lerner - it was not an arbitrary move - it was very specific

C Mehl asks for a visualization and @timmonsgroup is ON IT!

@timmonsgroup Give C York credit -- he is doing his best to unite all golf courses, country clubs and shopping centers.

C Lerner is valiantly trying to point out that the interest of the Republican commissioners in creating more competitive districts - comes only to those areas were they can undermine democratic districts - making Rep districts safer and Dem districts more competitive

And they hide that behind pretend COI of "retirement communities" that actually requested to be in another district.

C Lerner - let's talk about concessions
Maps approved - created by Republicans - when you say "concessions" we are making a lot of concessions -- When you, C Lerner says to Republican Commissioners,
Your concessions are of a different nature. You are correcting

for issues that must be addressed.

C Mehl ignores the statement and talks about Algernon.

THE @ErikaNeuberg is looking for a comprehensive convo why it makes sense. Why does this line or that line make sense?

Is this THE @ErikaNeuberg clipping the sails of C Mehl?

NOT holding my breath.

And @ndc_doug points out - helpfully? - we are past 4:00 pm. We need to have a map tonight to balance so you can vote on it tomorrow.

BACK ON CD 6
And Algernon - it is a stump now - not a finger

C Lerner says - this is not a map we could accept.
Our previous changes incorporated VRA, SES , Mayor Romero ; better competitiveness - no significant detriment

C Mehl talks about the Tucson Mall

C Lerner says this is a 5:2 map - and it is a mall - people don't know what CD they are going to when they go shopping

C Lerner is pushing for a vote?

C Mehl asks for a break

THE @ErikaNeuberg wonders if C Lerner could consider the broader ma of Cd 6 and Cd 7 - places to add Latinos to one district or not?
head exploding time again..

15 minute recess

So here is a random thought for @ArizonaIRC & C. Mehl on competitiveness: Given your competitive nature - I the 2011 AIRC had to work so hard to create well-respected and recognized fair, balanced and competitive maps, should you not be able to do better than that?

Matching what was done ten years without trying seems like it might indicate you should work harder to "exceed expectations." Or has that ship sailed?

I notice there are not so many - how do we compare to other states recently.

BACK

More on CD 6

"May be a bit of a late night" says THE @ErikaNeuberg
asks colleagues to join her in being efficient

C Mehl asks to see map with line at country club, not Alvernon

How many hours have we spent on this district? and why does Commissioner Mehl who was deceitful get to lead this? This defines exactly why voters did not want
the legislature to draw the line.

Does Close count in elections? NO WAY!

C Lerner holds firm - we make a huge compromise to address this at all on a map we already don't support.
We are asking for a 4/5; preferable a 5/4 - but that won't happen here.
Requesting that we go back to the changes suggestions we made -

understanding that we let go of the idea to unite Casa Grande --

C Lerner - it is not just about the University - In the modifications we made - there are other communities - University areas apply primarily south of Grand

AND lets talk about Casa Grande

C York talks about creating a "super robust CVAP" and unites the border communities

C Mehl - starting to make aseeis "small changes"
1) Move E Santa Cruz County back in D 7;
2) In Tucson go to Country Club and Fort Lowell - add to D6;
Changes make district slightly more competitive - not quite flipping

Now Broadway to Speedway - Country Club to Alvernon

Really, who has looked at Commissioner Mehl's property holdings? He is just to far too intense about these three blocks. And we know he is a liar and a cheat already.

THE @ErikaNeuberg gives C Mehl gold stars for creating a competitive map
C Lerner - we will not accept this change - close elections are still losses.

The @ErikaNeuberg walks it back ever so lightly

C Lerner reiterates for probably the 8th time today -- and remind the compromise on Casa Grande

The changes we requested from CD 6 and CD 7 - we recognized like neighborhoods - U is s of Grand - aligns with most recent letter from the Mayor --- So of Broadway fits better w/ D7 -- and more as they say

Now THE @ErikaNeuberg asks for improvements to D Mehl suggestions
C Lerner says we are trying very hard to work with a map that is challenging from the start

OK -- these are suggestions from C Lerner to address the changes just directed by C Mehl

THS COULD HAVE HAPPENED 2 MONTHS ago

C Lerner -- In draft map: CD 6 moved from a 1.9% 6/3 vote count D/R and went to 3.8% vote spread to 0/9 D/R vote count,. Completely shifted during various iterations. Wants to make that clear. vote spread to a
Mehl changes - 51.34 - 48.6 = 2.68 and a 7/2

NOW looking at Ft Lowell area - District boundaries - small adjustments says C Lerner - could go the wrong way too.

Vote Spread 2.42% - 6/3 D/R - - looks like classic swing says @ndc_doug
C Lerner suggests looking for pop balance in specificities area
THE @ErikaNeuberg says she thinks the difference are irrelevant / "meaningless" let the best candidate win

This is what C Mehl has his panties in a knot over

This makes it essential balanced
Vote Spread 49/51 Election Split 6/3

C Mehl asks for a10 minute break

Recess

BACK

THE @ErikaNeuberg wants a vote on the entire map

Com Lerner punts to Com Mehl
C Mehl is prepared to vote his version of the maps
If there is a unanimous vote for the multiple areas - we would look favorable on that with you vote; w/o your vote we'll go it alone

Well that certainly put it into constitutional criteria

Com Lerner calcifies what adjustments they are willing to accept
D4 elections number vote spread = 53.5 / 7 pts
Elections 8/1 R/D election swing

We accept the compromise in D6 and modification to D 4 we can support that. D 4 and 5 and D 6 and 7 ;

We've worked really hard to find a compromise
We still have a concern about D3 --

Went to break

@ndc_doug talking about new districts from discussion today
Changes in D7
Changes in Mesa

Com Lerner - are the changes public - can we see them
C York - and changes to CD 3, Cd 8, or Cd 9 - None - Maryvale united in CD 3; Glendale borders not change

Com Mehl want to look at this overnight -- close and optimistic so we can direct the mapping team to balance pop and review the details in the am.

THE @ErikaNeuberg thinks all are equally unhappy -- and then word salad

On pace to meet deadline. Moving to vote in the AM on Congress and then move onto LD map
Meeting tomorrow 12/22
9:00 am - looking for a consequential and remarkable date
Closing down

See you all tomorrow : 22 hours to go
to #NotQuiteFairDistricts