Share this page!

Derek Thompson Profile picture
Twitter logo
21 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
New ep with @morganhousel (!!):

4 BIG ECONOMIC MYTHS

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…

1. The inflation rate doesn't exist (as a singular entity)
2. The Great Resignation isn't about resignations
3. Robots *should* take our jobs
4. The "golden age" of retirement? Actually, it sucked
1. Some inflation rates

Gas +58%
Rental car 37%
Hotels 26%
Steak 25%
Bacon 21%
...
Rent 3.5%
Watches 1%
Girls apparel: -0.4%

Meat-lovin’ road trippers in rented cars and urban dads buying dresses for their young daughters are living in two different worlds right now.
2. The Great Resignation is really the Great Reshuffle. It's about job-hopping, not pure quitting.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

The industries with the most quits—restaurants and hotels—are also the industries adding the most jobs.
3. There is a serious need for more work across the economy, in factories, restaurants, and beyond.

We should try to increase the workforce—including expanding immigration.

But also this is the wrong time to be afraid of automation in the service industry.
4. The golden age of "retirement" wasn't so golden.

@morganhousel: People waxing nostalgic about mid-20th century retirement are idolizing a period with higher levels of senior poverty and significantly lower average wealth.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Derek Thompson

Derek Thompson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DKThomp

Derek Thompson Profile picture
22 Dec
I wrote about the mystery of the moment: Is Omicron less severe?

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

I’ve seen the real-world data. I’ve seen the lab conclusions. It’s not a clean picture. But I have a tentative answer.
The severity conundrum contains an easy & hard question.

The easier Q: Is O milder than previous strains for ppl w/ immunity from infections/vaxx? The answer at this point leans strongly toward yes.

The hard Q: Is O *intrinsically* milder? The evidence here is much more uneven.
What I wanted to do with this piece is provide a synthesis of the real-world and lab conclusions, with all the proper caveats, on Omicron and severity

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

This thread provides a brief summary, but I'd encourage you to read the piece to get the full flavor.
Read 9 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
20 Dec
My second essay on the decline of decline of novelty in art, science, and technology in the 21st century

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

In Hollywood, at the NIH/NSF, and in US energy policy, our markets are failing to promote new ideas that drive progress and growth.
Since 1999, the box office share of sequels, remakes, and adaptations has surged.

Did US screenwriters become less creative? Very unlikely.

What changed wasn't our minds, but our markets: The domestic/international market for blockbusters was transformed. Image
The box office globalized at the same time that cable and streaming welcome serialized original stories. Meanwhile, the rising cost of blockbusters pushed studios to bet safer projects, creating a self-perpetuating loop of audiences saving their scarce tickets for sequels. Image
Read 6 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
11 Dec
December 11 Omicron update from Europe

- all cases for which there is available information have been asymptomatic or mild
- no deaths so far

It’s the same story everywhere: Too early to draw strong conclusions, but the lack of bad news on severity is good news
Link ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events…
“High transmissibility, high breakthrough rate, low observed severity per infection” has been the story for about a week—and I don’t think I’ve seen anything to change it yet.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Read 6 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
9 Dec
THREAD

Here is my overview of the week in Omicron news:

- the latest data from South Africa
- the major findings from preliminary vaccine studies
- the lessons of specific outbreaks in Oslo and the NYC anime convention

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
SOUTH AFRICA p1

Case growth is absolutely ferocious, and the evidence of breakthroughs is overwhelming. The estimated reproduction rate is higher than any other point of the pandemic. Omicron is spreading very, very fast right now. Image
SOUTH AFRICA p2

The share of hospitalized patients in the ICU or on O2 is 50% lower than during same stage of Delta. Some evidence that the avg hospital patient is being discharged faster, too.

Read 12 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
8 Dec
I wrote about the myths of the "Great Resignation"

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

1. It's not about "quitting", but low-wage job-switching (ht @JHWeissmann)

2. It actually has very little to do with professional burnout

3. It's more about early retirement than news reports suggest
(1) The Great Resignation isn't actually about what most people think of as "resignations."

The low-wage service-sector economy is experiencing the equivalent of “free agency” in a professional sports league. That makes it more like the Big Switch than the Big Quit.
Restaurants and hotels have been hardest hit by the Great Resignation.

So, are they shrinking?

No! Accommodations and food services added ~2 million employees in 2021! That's almost one out of every three net new jobs this year. They're raising wages and scrambling to hire.
Read 7 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
18 Nov
A novel crypto movement just raised $30+ million in a matter of days to buy a rare Constitution through a decentralized corp.

Even if you think crypto is just stupid—and I don't—a technology for firing a bazooka of money at [anything] seems like an important thing to watch.
Obviously, "firing a bazooka of money at something" is not an unprecedented invention. And crypto is more than just a shadow stock market.

But imagine for one second this movement is *nothing more* than the creation of a gazillion dollars in wealth.

That's massively important!
I follow a lot of smart people who say "crypto has no broad consumer use case right now" and "what's going to be the first killer app here?"

What if the first killer app of crypto is ... an absolutely absurd amount of money? Capable of being deployed for any purpose?
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @DKThomp has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @DKThomp!

Read all threads by @DKThomp

:(