Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Dec 11th. 1/
Cases yest 818, a 195% incr over last Mon's 277. 7d ave now 601 a 93.2% incr week over wk from 311 (Yest 70.8% fri 23.9%, Thurs 10.6%). Positivity 11.05% (last Mon 4.56%). 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts Thurs -10 to 281 (revised from 280 yest and 276 Fri) Fri -7 to 274 (revised from 273 yest), Sat -20 to 254 (revised from 253 yest), Sun +5 to 259 (revised from 255). Yest +1 to 255 (subj to revision). ICU unchanged at 69. 3/
No new Paeds admits. Deaths 2, both in 70s in Calgary and Edmonton. 4/
Demographics: holy c#)* what a change. Thank god kids are out of school right now. And Calgary. Sheesh. (wish someone had asked about the Saddledome superspreader event today) 5/
Omicron rise: since reported later than cases/d, best described in pictures. 6/
Regarding today's presser: It won't be enough. We remain in trouble. I was heartened by Dr. Hinshaw's exhortation for Albertan's to cancel holiday gatherings, but doubt if our "personal responsibility" will be strong enough to overcome our need to get together. 7/
most of the other half measures seem to be half measures. Most dont' acknowledge the problem of airborne spread. My favourite non-sensical one is that a venue with a 501 capacity is capped at 500. Also liquor curfew returns because???? 8/ Source: cbc.ca/news/canada/ed…
Very very glad to see an acknowledgement of the concerning airborne nature of the virus, but flat out misinformation that a medical mask can be well-fitting. Just not true. It's called the #wearareespiratorwave for a reason. 8/
Came across this data from a review of hospital viral infection prevention comparing medical masks to respirators for COVID. I'm convinced we all should be wearing much better masks: source: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10… fin/
Thanks to @ByMatthewBlack and AB Health for the graphic.
Oops 21st it is!
More erratta (I need an editor) yest +1 to 260 (not 255)

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More from @jvipondmd

22 Dec
It's time for a little walk down the path called "what wave is this?". About naming the 3rd, 4th, and now 5th waves. And why it's important. 1/
it began with the 3rd wave. Our leaders oblivious despite having evidence from previous waves of how exponential growth worked, making it predictable, and how to stop it through mitigation policies, making it preventable. #predictableandpreventablewave. 2/
Then the fourth wave. The attempt to cause herd immunity by allowing it to run rampant through our population, especially the kids. And h/t to @sarahkendzior and @AndreaChalupa for pointing out that cruelty is the purpose. The #intentionallycruelwave 3/
Read 14 tweets
20 Dec
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Mon Dec 20th, covering Fri/Sat/Sun. TLDR: Omicron is going to wreck your holidays. 1/
Cases/d: Fri 630, a 101.2%% incr from last Fri's 313. Sat 724, 177.4% up from 261. Sun 580, up 190% from 200. 7d ave now 527, up 70.8% from last week's 305 (fri 23.9%, Thurs 10.6%). Positivity 6.39% (last Fri 8.81%) 8.34% (4.16%) 8.81% (3.72%). 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts Tues -6 to 297 (revised from 296 Thurs and 291 Wed) Wed -7 to 290 (revised from 286 Fri and 282 Thurs) Yest -10 to 280 (revised from 276 yest) (all weekend numbers subj to revision) Fri -7 to 273, Sat -20 to 253, Sun +2 to 255. 3/
Read 13 tweets
2 Dec
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Wed Dec 1st. 1/
Yest cases/d 435 an 8.3% decr from last Tues's 474. 7d Avde now 320, a 14.9% drop wk over wk from 376 (yest 13.3%). Positivity 4.07% down from last wk's 4.58%. All leading indicators trending down, so good. 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts. Sat -8 to 368 (revised from 367 yest). Sun -8 to 360 (revised from 359 yest). Mon +1 to 361 (revised from 353 yest). Yest -16 to 345 (subj to revision). ICU -2 to 79. Paeds admits: None! Deaths 7 incl another 20-29 year old 3/
Read 8 tweets
1 Dec
This hot take is a dangerous bit of poor math. Neverymind that we don't actually know the data for Omicrom to inform this... 1/ smh.com.au/national/could…
even if it is more transmissible but less virulent, IT WILL STILL KILL MORE PEOPLE because more people get infected. This is the problem with exponential growth. 2/ theconversation.com/coronavirus-va…
but again, we don't know any of this. Avoid the Hopium. Use the precautionary principle until we know better. Then when we know better, do good science based planning. fin/
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec
A short thread examining expert advice on airborne transmission in this new @calgaryherald article. 1/ calgaryherald.com/news/local-new…
This whole paragraph is incorrect. Aerosol spread has been shown to be dominant, from well before Nov 2020. In fact, there is no evidence for droplet spread, and minimal evidence for contact. 2/ cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Incorrect. The new guidance says: a medical mask or a respirator, not just a medical mask. A respirator (aka N95/KN95/elastomeric) is a much better fitting mask than a surgical mask and will be much better protection when exposed to virus in aerosols. 3/ canada.ca/en/public-heal…
Read 9 tweets
1 Dec
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Nov 30th covering Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon, because. 1/
Cases/d Fri 335 a 28.1% drop from last Fri's 466. Sat 253 a 33.2% drop from 379. Sun 231 a 14.7% drop from 271. and Mon 239 a 12.5 % drop from 273. Four in a row of dropping cases, that's great news. 7d ave now 326 a 13.3% drop wk over wk from 376 (friday flat) 1/
Positivity Fri 4.56% (last Fri 5.13%) Sat 3.86%(5.10%) Sun 4.60%(5.76%) Mon 4.47%(5.30%). Another leading indicator with dropping numbers, a clean sweep. This, again, is so good. In fact, first substantial drop in 7d ave since Nov 1st. 2/
Read 9 tweets

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