It's time for a little walk down the path called "what wave is this?". About naming the 3rd, 4th, and now 5th waves. And why it's important. 1/
it began with the 3rd wave. Our leaders oblivious despite having evidence from previous waves of how exponential growth worked, making it predictable, and how to stop it through mitigation policies, making it preventable. #predictableandpreventablewave. 2/
Then the fourth wave. The attempt to cause herd immunity by allowing it to run rampant through our population, especially the kids. And h/t to @sarahkendzior and @AndreaChalupa for pointing out that cruelty is the purpose. The #intentionallycruelwave 3/
Giving the waves pet names allowed them to be described, and explained in a different way than "3rd" or "4th" wave couldn't do. It also was an attempt (probably unsuccessful) to shame the leaders into acting better. 4/
But the 5th wave?A Tsunami of infection descending upon us.And so transmissible that even paragons of pandemic policy like Nova Scotia are failing. I have no faith in our leaders protecting us, they have proven unworthy of the task thusfar, and will continue to fail, methinks. 5/
I have always (and will continue to) say that gov't responsibility >>>> personal responsibility. but with systems and leaders failing, I hope people will protect themselves and their loved ones. Vaccines, smart behaviours, and respirator masks. The #weararespiratorwave. 6/
COVID has been an airborne transmitted disease since the beginning. But the Western world has been loathe to acknowledge it, for reasons I hope someone eventually figures out. But Omicron has made that transmission hard to ignore. 7/ thelancet.com/article/S0140-…
For the first 20 months, we coasted on contact/droplet precautions. Kinda like driving a car in a back alley at low speed, seatbelts (airborne precautions) were not obviously important (to some). Then the speeds increased with each variant. It started to rain. Seatbelts needed.8/
But now we're driving at hellish speeds in a raging icestorm and goddamn it the driver is drunk. We need seatbelts and good car design and airbags to survive. Airborne precautions: respirator masks, ventilation and filtration. 9/
Respirators aren't foolproof. But neither are vaccines, 75% effective for infection after 3 shots for Omicron. And respirators are a far cry better than gaping cloth or surgical masks. We need all the safety layers to get us through this. (H/T @MackayIM) 10/
We're hearing acknowledgement of this from @CPHO_Canada @GovCanHealth and even belately from @CMOH_Alberta. But now the next problem. How to deal with the supply issues of 36M Canadians rushing to supply themselves. 11/
And the equity issue. Not everyone can afford a $1-$2 disposable mask (surgical masks are around $0.20 each, fabric masks last forever). So, I call on the federal government to incentivize production by @CAPPEM2, and distribute free of charge to those in need. 12/
Despite the disposable nature of the masks, you can reuse them, for up to a 40 hour use (they don't get "gummed up" with COVID or anything else). Throw them out if they get visibly soiled or obviously smelly. Longer life= cheaper and less supply problems. 13/
So, welcome to #weararespiratorwave. May the odds be ever in your favour. fin/

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More from @jvipondmd

21 Dec
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Dec 11th. 1/
Cases yest 818, a 195% incr over last Mon's 277. 7d ave now 601 a 93.2% incr week over wk from 311 (Yest 70.8% fri 23.9%, Thurs 10.6%). Positivity 11.05% (last Mon 4.56%). 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts Thurs -10 to 281 (revised from 280 yest and 276 Fri) Fri -7 to 274 (revised from 273 yest), Sat -20 to 254 (revised from 253 yest), Sun +5 to 259 (revised from 255). Yest +1 to 255 (subj to revision). ICU unchanged at 69. 3/
Read 13 tweets
20 Dec
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Mon Dec 20th, covering Fri/Sat/Sun. TLDR: Omicron is going to wreck your holidays. 1/
Cases/d: Fri 630, a 101.2%% incr from last Fri's 313. Sat 724, 177.4% up from 261. Sun 580, up 190% from 200. 7d ave now 527, up 70.8% from last week's 305 (fri 23.9%, Thurs 10.6%). Positivity 6.39% (last Fri 8.81%) 8.34% (4.16%) 8.81% (3.72%). 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts Tues -6 to 297 (revised from 296 Thurs and 291 Wed) Wed -7 to 290 (revised from 286 Fri and 282 Thurs) Yest -10 to 280 (revised from 276 yest) (all weekend numbers subj to revision) Fri -7 to 273, Sat -20 to 253, Sun +2 to 255. 3/
Read 13 tweets
2 Dec
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Wed Dec 1st. 1/
Yest cases/d 435 an 8.3% decr from last Tues's 474. 7d Avde now 320, a 14.9% drop wk over wk from 376 (yest 13.3%). Positivity 4.07% down from last wk's 4.58%. All leading indicators trending down, so good. 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts. Sat -8 to 368 (revised from 367 yest). Sun -8 to 360 (revised from 359 yest). Mon +1 to 361 (revised from 353 yest). Yest -16 to 345 (subj to revision). ICU -2 to 79. Paeds admits: None! Deaths 7 incl another 20-29 year old 3/
Read 8 tweets
1 Dec
This hot take is a dangerous bit of poor math. Neverymind that we don't actually know the data for Omicrom to inform this... 1/ smh.com.au/national/could…
even if it is more transmissible but less virulent, IT WILL STILL KILL MORE PEOPLE because more people get infected. This is the problem with exponential growth. 2/ theconversation.com/coronavirus-va…
but again, we don't know any of this. Avoid the Hopium. Use the precautionary principle until we know better. Then when we know better, do good science based planning. fin/
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec
A short thread examining expert advice on airborne transmission in this new @calgaryherald article. 1/ calgaryherald.com/news/local-new…
This whole paragraph is incorrect. Aerosol spread has been shown to be dominant, from well before Nov 2020. In fact, there is no evidence for droplet spread, and minimal evidence for contact. 2/ cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Incorrect. The new guidance says: a medical mask or a respirator, not just a medical mask. A respirator (aka N95/KN95/elastomeric) is a much better fitting mask than a surgical mask and will be much better protection when exposed to virus in aerosols. 3/ canada.ca/en/public-heal…
Read 9 tweets
1 Dec
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Nov 30th covering Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon, because. 1/
Cases/d Fri 335 a 28.1% drop from last Fri's 466. Sat 253 a 33.2% drop from 379. Sun 231 a 14.7% drop from 271. and Mon 239 a 12.5 % drop from 273. Four in a row of dropping cases, that's great news. 7d ave now 326 a 13.3% drop wk over wk from 376 (friday flat) 1/
Positivity Fri 4.56% (last Fri 5.13%) Sat 3.86%(5.10%) Sun 4.60%(5.76%) Mon 4.47%(5.30%). Another leading indicator with dropping numbers, a clean sweep. This, again, is so good. In fact, first substantial drop in 7d ave since Nov 1st. 2/
Read 9 tweets

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