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Orwell2024 Profile picture
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22 Dec, 17 tweets, 9 min read
1/ I mirror his words back now @dimgrr

The OWID website is one of the worst. After almost a 2 years, there still aren't any age de-confounded ASMR, and the coverage time series only include misleading aggregated figures. OWID delivers one Simpson's paradox after another.
2/ Here some input for @redouad. OWID likes to fear porn with unadjusted death figures. Even better with cumulated "total deaths" (sounds scary right?) over several years.

Better method:

orwell2024.substack.com/p/age-adjusted…
3/ Doing it correctly at OWID, you would be able to understand what is happening Mr. Edouard.

Instead, you troll Netherlands and @rivm while having such a bad service yourself.

Change the name OWID to OACUD:

"Our Age Confounded Useless Data".

Here de-confounded👇
4/ Let's play a game Edouart. Find the pandemic in ASMR data:

Can you solve the puzzle?

5/ You want to understand the Netherlands?



In detail here: orwell2024.substack.com/p/netherlands-…
6/ The results are interesting, and give a very different story once de-confounded by demographics, which your service doesn't do.

You must love to work with the Simpson's paradox.
7/ I animated it for you:
8/ For the "Our Age Confounded Useless Data" at OWID "experts".

I here explain what is really going on without using age confounded "sum of all deaths".
9/ Doing this by flu season (July-June) instead of calendar year (which you are doing) we get an even clearer picture.
The eternal lockdowns aren't that healthy at the end, or are they?
10/ And it gets worse in poor countries:

Can you see how lockdowns saved lives. "Our Age Confounded Useless Data" OWID is co-responsible for fuelling this lockdown mass hysteria. Is it the flavour of your money source? Gates and WHO?

11/ How do you explain that the unvaccinated in east Germany were already dying in 2017? A time machine?

12/ Could it be this?
13/ We can do this on country level as well:

Can you see it Edouart?

14/ Here is Germany with 2021 included:

Vaccine or obesity? What do you think fits better.
15/ Now ASMR for more countries with 2021 included. The grey countries have no data yet in ec.europa.eu/eurostat/datab… up to week 47, therefore not shown.

Orwell2022 age de-confounded data

...or...

@redouad "Our Age Confounded Useless Data" (OWID).

What is better?
16/ Why is OWID doing this? They seem to have more urgent issues like the use of political correct(?) "colour blind" colour codes.

I recommend the comments section where @redouad engaged (showing his irritation):
17/ So let's vote for @redouad

Which map is better in helping the human colour vision brain process information faster?

A) The colour blind version of OWID?
B) The high colour contrast version of Wikipedia?

A hint: can you spot Papua-Neuguinea's problem in OWID's new colours?

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More from @orwell2022

Orwell2024 Profile picture
22 Dec
1/ The main stream media @TheEconomist and also @OurWorldInData continue their "Our Age Confounded Useless Data" game combined with excess metrics which mislead.

2/ I don't have 26M followers @TheEconomist, but I do know that using Age Standardized Mortality Rates is the only meaningful metric unless you want to show that Nigeria with a low excess is better than living in Italy (life expectancy 82 years).

But here an example: Denmark
3/ The @TheEconomist is here suggesting that Denmark with an 46 week ASMR 2021 of 8.48 is better than Norway at 6.66.

30% higher ASMR is a bad.

Having a lot of deaths at a stable baseline is better than having variance at ultra low baselines?

What does @redouad think?
Read 6 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
21 Dec
1/ A Sunday quiz game: find the deadliest pandemic years 2020 and 2021.

Age standardized mortality for the weeks 1-46 is shown below over 21 years.

Rule: you have to score both years correct.

Should be easy: just pick the highest ones...or not?
2/ Austria, same game, same rules. @freiheit_ruft
3/ Sweden, same game, same rules. Note: the years are all always random in all pictures. With a different seed when flipping the coins.
Read 6 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
20 Dec
1/ NL, AUT, SWE, NO, CH age adjusted mortality update.

I have added data up to week 47 now (28th November).

Left column: crude mortality (normalized to total population).
Right column: ASMR using NL2011 std. population.

AUT and NL go up, not NO, CH, SWE.
2/ The mortality increase in NL and AUT is not related to vaxx. The vaxx is at the same time not visible as lifesaving in all cause as C19 is not the driving parameter, neither is the vaxx.
We likely see the price to pay for permanent lockdowns, social isolation, fear, etc.
3/ Let's dig deeper than AMSR: now we plot mortality by age bin population. This is more precise in order to understand what is going on.

No surprise, the old are dying. Do people not know this? And are we now "bin counting" 90+ people to make lockdown panic? Stop this please.
Read 16 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
19 Dec
El Gato with a time differential approach on VE.

Maybe we are moving closer towards calling our bets @luigi_warren ?

More solid data is just a matter of time. Then we will see if it’s real or an statistical artefact.

So is👇real or not…?

Interesting early data….
Some context: This discussion below.
More

Read 4 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
16 Dec
1/ Syncing on @prof_shahar on the seasonal mortality.

I use a -26 week offset to define the season (basically September - September)

Let's start with Sweden. I also have one more (20/21) data point as compared with Prof. Shahar plot as I work with Sept-Sept.
2/ As a test we overlay.

Note that we have one month different season definitions. Small detail. I used 1st September as it seems to be the historical death minimum over years and countries.
3/ Now let's play. More countries.

And here we start to see interesting things like the disastrous performance of AUT, CH, FR on 20/21 season. Surprised me

We learn: locking down in 19/20 season makes 20/21 explode.

@DrJBhattacharya @MLevitt_NP2013 @MartinKulldorff won 👏🏆
Read 8 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
14 Dec
1/ Another broken Covid claim.

Work done by @USMortality 😎

I just plot it here on a map. Same scale as my maps for Europe.

Note the he uses a German std. population (2020) while me ESP2013 or NL2011.

The timeframe is week 1 - current week 50 fro all years. Image
2/ Animated version.

The mortality in the east, is nothing new. The low vaccination rate has little to do with a problem that is seen 2016-2019 aswell.

Try with obesity/smoking maps to understand the issue...😉
@USMortality @MLevitt_NP2013 @connolly_s @rosenbusch_ @DrSimonsSpirit @FrankfurtZack @holmenkollin @prof_freedom @jens_140081 @SHomburg
Read 7 tweets

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