HSE PCR Test Appointment availability

The graphs are back, because availability has once again collapsed.

This is omicron. Dublin has about 13 appointments left fro Thursday.
The HSE booking system is under severe load as people try to book appointment slots that simple don't exist.

It's hard to convey the speed at which availability has collapsed. It's gone from quite good, with slots available within a few hours, to this in two days really.
I take that as a measure of the growth in omicron case rates. Huge numbers of cases are arriving exactly as predicted by all international data

Ireland is unable to measure the case rates given the testing constraints. This collapse in availability of appointments is the measure
update.
update. It's hard to keep up with this pace. I'm seeing very surprising pace of drop in availability, even as someone who watched this closely for weeks.
What’s most worrying about this isn’t the scale of availability crisis, and I think that’s the right word again, but rather how quickly it’s happened. Two days ago availability was tightening but still adequate.

Now it’s gone. That’s the impact of omicron. it will double again.
update. HSE PCR Test availability now in free-fall.

Just 7 appointments available for today in the country (Donegal 5, Kildare 2)
for comparison, just 10 minutes later
what you are looking at essentially is the availability of self-referral HSE PCR Tests across the country for tomorrow Thursday 23rd Dec.

There are just 7 appointments available today as of about 20 minutes ago.
This is the worst I've seen so far in 4 weeks.

The whole country is now essentially any a 40hrs+ wait for PCR testing.

Next availability is Friday morning, released tonight. I expect it will be gone by breakfast tomorrow.
availability now needs to be increased by about 15,000 tests a day to even keep up with todays demand.

Tomorrow demand will be significantly higher as omicron spreads.
reported case rates thus bear NO relationship to the real case rates.

To report them as anything other than inaccurate is a national disservice.
galway's gone. as is Clare, Mayo.

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More from @Styo28183449

23 Dec
We really have to hit this nail of the head: omicron is less severe so it will be all right.

Lets take the extreme new claim. 70% less severe.Lets believe it for a moment.

so if 100 cases was delivering 10 hospitalisations, not it's only delivering 3.
Here is the problem.

omicron grows the number of cases, doubling every 2 days.

So after 4 days you have 400 cases.

3% of 400 is 12.

So you have more cases that with the original strain.
And from here it gets worse.

because omicron keeps doubling every 2 days, the next doubling will yield 800 cases, of which, I'm sure you're getting it now, 24 will be hospitalisations.
Read 28 tweets
23 Dec
HSE PCR Test Availability Report

This is the worst day on record.

Just 220 left in Donegal. These will run out shortly.

The average wait time for a PCR test is now in excess of 2 days across the country.

About 3,000 appointments/hr are being missed.

gets worse tomorrow. Image
Any attempt by the HSE to report on the total volume of cases is now hopelessly wrong.

Any reporting of HSE case rates without explaining this is now lying by omission.

nobody knows how many cases there are now, but we can make reasonable extrapolations.
Read 8 tweets
23 Dec
What I've learned during covid.

There is a very thin line between optimism and denial, and most people seem to cross it regularly.
The "optimist" looks at this graph, for example, and says "at least there is availability in donegal".

The realist looks at the optimist and wonder what is he smoking? Image
my conclusion is that anyone who consistently looks for the up side of a situation has a kind of mental brittleness has a character flaw not a strength.

I'm actually an infuriatingly optimistic person. But there is nothing optimistic about our position with covid. it's all bad.
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec
HSE PCR Test Availability

The first graph of the day, and we're close to done.

No availability in the east for a record 50 hrs+

Welcome to Omicron. Image
What this means is that 3,000 or more people an hour who’ll arrive this morning to find that the earliest they can get a self-referral PCR test is Saturday, if they try at midnight tonight. In many parts of the east they may have at most a 4/7 minute window to book then.
Read 5 tweets
22 Dec
and we're off.
22,673 appointments at midnight as follows:

Carlow: 191
Cavan: 201
Clare: 1,152
Cork: 2,061
Donegal: 947
Dublin: 5,142
Galway: 2,013
Kerry: 294
Kildare: 278
Kilkenny: 120
Laois: 321
Leitrim: 132
Limerick: 1,388
Longford: 1,071
Louth: 498
Mayo: 390
Read 23 tweets
22 Dec
HSE PCR Test availability

You are not seeing things. There is no mistake.

No availability till Friday anywhere except Donegal which is running out also.

I knew it was collapsing but the scale of this collapse for anyone who has watched this data for the last few weeks is ...
...is hard to express.

What it means essentially, is that about 20,000 additional test appointments are needed to capture the DAILY test requirement.

Some 32,000 appointments were made today by people looking for appointments today, having largely to settle for tomorrow.
And the really bad news is that this problem will rise by about 40% tomorrow.

It's really hard to find words to express how bad this situation is. I think the best word is unmeasurable.

for reference

Read 6 tweets

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