The HSE booking system is under severe load as people try to book appointment slots that simple don't exist.
It's hard to convey the speed at which availability has collapsed. It's gone from quite good, with slots available within a few hours, to this in two days really.
I take that as a measure of the growth in omicron case rates. Huge numbers of cases are arriving exactly as predicted by all international data
Ireland is unable to measure the case rates given the testing constraints. This collapse in availability of appointments is the measure
update.
update. It's hard to keep up with this pace. I'm seeing very surprising pace of drop in availability, even as someone who watched this closely for weeks.
What’s most worrying about this isn’t the scale of availability crisis, and I think that’s the right word again, but rather how quickly it’s happened. Two days ago availability was tightening but still adequate.
Now it’s gone. That’s the impact of omicron. it will double again.
update. HSE PCR Test availability now in free-fall.
Just 7 appointments available for today in the country (Donegal 5, Kildare 2)
for comparison, just 10 minutes later
what you are looking at essentially is the availability of self-referral HSE PCR Tests across the country for tomorrow Thursday 23rd Dec.
There are just 7 appointments available today as of about 20 minutes ago.
This is the worst I've seen so far in 4 weeks.
The whole country is now essentially any a 40hrs+ wait for PCR testing.
Next availability is Friday morning, released tonight. I expect it will be gone by breakfast tomorrow.
availability now needs to be increased by about 15,000 tests a day to even keep up with todays demand.
Tomorrow demand will be significantly higher as omicron spreads.
reported case rates thus bear NO relationship to the real case rates.
To report them as anything other than inaccurate is a national disservice.
galway's gone. as is Clare, Mayo.
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We really have to hit this nail of the head: omicron is less severe so it will be all right.
Lets take the extreme new claim. 70% less severe.Lets believe it for a moment.
so if 100 cases was delivering 10 hospitalisations, not it's only delivering 3.
Here is the problem.
omicron grows the number of cases, doubling every 2 days.
So after 4 days you have 400 cases.
3% of 400 is 12.
So you have more cases that with the original strain.
And from here it gets worse.
because omicron keeps doubling every 2 days, the next doubling will yield 800 cases, of which, I'm sure you're getting it now, 24 will be hospitalisations.
There is a very thin line between optimism and denial, and most people seem to cross it regularly.
The "optimist" looks at this graph, for example, and says "at least there is availability in donegal".
The realist looks at the optimist and wonder what is he smoking?
my conclusion is that anyone who consistently looks for the up side of a situation has a kind of mental brittleness has a character flaw not a strength.
I'm actually an infuriatingly optimistic person. But there is nothing optimistic about our position with covid. it's all bad.
What this means is that 3,000 or more people an hour who’ll arrive this morning to find that the earliest they can get a self-referral PCR test is Saturday, if they try at midnight tonight. In many parts of the east they may have at most a 4/7 minute window to book then.