What this means is that 3,000 or more people an hour who’ll arrive this morning to find that the earliest they can get a self-referral PCR test is Saturday, if they try at midnight tonight. In many parts of the east they may have at most a 4/7 minute window to book then.
A new feature this morning is the scale of drop in Connaught.
The state needs to be providing about 50,000 tests a day at this point. It’s managing about half that.
The takeaway is that HSE Case reports no longer reflect reality in any way, and it’s getting worse as the hours pass.
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We really have to hit this nail of the head: omicron is less severe so it will be all right.
Lets take the extreme new claim. 70% less severe.Lets believe it for a moment.
so if 100 cases was delivering 10 hospitalisations, not it's only delivering 3.
Here is the problem.
omicron grows the number of cases, doubling every 2 days.
So after 4 days you have 400 cases.
3% of 400 is 12.
So you have more cases that with the original strain.
And from here it gets worse.
because omicron keeps doubling every 2 days, the next doubling will yield 800 cases, of which, I'm sure you're getting it now, 24 will be hospitalisations.
There is a very thin line between optimism and denial, and most people seem to cross it regularly.
The "optimist" looks at this graph, for example, and says "at least there is availability in donegal".
The realist looks at the optimist and wonder what is he smoking?
my conclusion is that anyone who consistently looks for the up side of a situation has a kind of mental brittleness has a character flaw not a strength.
I'm actually an infuriatingly optimistic person. But there is nothing optimistic about our position with covid. it's all bad.
The HSE booking system is under severe load as people try to book appointment slots that simple don't exist.
It's hard to convey the speed at which availability has collapsed. It's gone from quite good, with slots available within a few hours, to this in two days really.