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Trinh Profile picture
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23 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Are u ready? Let's follow the money & specifically where did you deploy your capital in 2021?

Did u buy Turkey on the dip? WORST INDEX IN 2021 thanks to a weaker TRY as well (return in USD).

Second worst? Hang Seng Chinese listed firms. 🇨🇳🇭🇰🤮🤢

Best? Vietnam & the US🇺🇸🇻🇳😎🥳
2021 return from best to worst:
🇻🇳Vietnam +35% (People love it)
🇦🇷Argentina (real return sucks due to high CPI) 34%
🇺🇸USA 26% (Nasdaq) & 25% SPX (tech + liquidity)
🇹🇼Taiwan 22% (semiconductor + growth)
🇮🇳India 17% (improving econ + diversify from China)
🇷🇺Russia 15% (commodity)
🇲🇽Mexico 15%
🇬🇧UK 11%
🇨🇳Chinese onshore tech (Shenzhen) 11%
🇪🇺Eurostoxx 10%
🇨🇳Onshore Chinese industrials 7%
🇦🇺Australia 5%
🇵🇱Poland 2%

Note that this includes FX as it is in USD.
How to lose your $ in 2021! Worst place to deploy capital:
🇹🇷Turkey -27%
🇨🇳🇭🇰Hong Kong listed Chinese firms -24%
🇧🇷Brazil -20%
🇭🇰🇨🇳Hong Kong -16%
🌏Asia (MSCI 50) -14%
🇲🇾Malaysia -12%
🇳🇿New Zealand -7%
🇯🇵Japan (Nikkei 225) -6%
🇰🇷Korea (KOSPI) -5%
🇵🇭Philippines -5%
🇹🇭Thailand -1%

• • •

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
21 Dec
Good morning, let's just see what's going on in Omicron infections & deaths. First, apparently they are already 75% of cases.

Below is change of US cases & deaths. Note that since end 2020, no lockdowns in the US despite cases/deaths going up & down on Delta and now Omicron.
The key difference is of course the news coverage of daily cases & deaths: despite being high, the news stops making it a big deal & actually focuses on the vaccinated/unvaccinated.

Meaning, instead of blaming politicians, they now turn on the unvaccinated.
Irrespective of who is to blame for this rise of cases (higher infectious nature/seasonality) & deaths, the key point here is this: We will not have lockdown in the US because that is just not the policy flavor at the moment.

There will be targeted shutdowns but no lockdown.
Read 8 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
15 Dec
Ouch, China retail sales slowed sharply to 3.9%YoY. Yes, that is a nominal number is very bad. Investment bad too & the %YoY number is negative!!!

Winter is here!

🇨🇳🥶
China Zero Covid strategy biting into retail sales, especially restaurants that went negative.

Tighter liquidity and regulations as well as negative sentiment & hit investment. That went negative on a %YoY basis.

Note that all of this is nominal so real growth is bad in Q4.
China investment here & it shows year-to-date & if u strip to YoY then it's negative. Look at state investment, slowing a lot. Also private.

Next year, gotta bump that state investment in 2022.
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
15 Dec
Good morning! Very very busy macroeconomics day! And u know I love it! Okay, let's start with the US as we all care about the Fed meeting at 3am HKT.

PPI was off the chart high at 9.6%YoY and we know that the Fed is now in inflation fire fighting mode 🔥🧑‍🚒🧯 & pushed USD higher
In Asia, before the Fed, we got China data coming out & in November things will feel a bit saggy, which we know that the government is worried about because they already cut the RRR by 50bps to shore up demand.

More to come easing wise, both monetary and fiscal to help the eco!
And tonight, on the back of that gangbuster PPI, we got retail sales, which were pretty strong in October & again good in November.

The Fed meeting is in focus as markets will see how INTENSELY focused it will be on fighting inflation. Tapering to double the pace to USD30bn &
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
14 Dec
You can kill 7 innocent children & 3 adults & not have any consequence whatsoever as it is an "honest mistake." Meanwhile, there's a looming famine in Afghanistan. The US didn't just pull the troops from Afghanistan, it pulled the lifeline of 40m people.

nytimes.com/2021/12/04/wor…
About 75% of the former government’s budget was donor-funded, as was 40% of its GDP.

US sanctions mean that 40% of GDP is not funded as aid money doesn't flow there (no bank would want to touch it).

So just like that, economic freefall & famine looming
voanews.com/a/un-aid-chief…
The US slapped sanctions (+freezing 10bn of reserves) on Afghanistan for obvious reasons - the Taliban took over.

But 40 million people suddenly also don't have means to feed themselves as the aid that they need can't flow.

So now what? People are desperately hungry.
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
14 Dec
Good morning ☀️Asia! Inflation expectations & why does it matter.

First, it is high at 6% in one year according to a Fed survey & twice income gains (expecting only 2.8%).

Meaning, people expect to be relatively POORER & able to purchase fewer goods!!!

So?
Inflation expectations are key to future inflation & that is why the Fed monitors.

People’s expectations lead to reaction. If they think CPI is gonna be 6%, they’d want a raise to feel less poor & so everyone doing so leads to inflation.

So the Fed is worried & should be!
The Fed uses words like anchoring inflation expectations around 2%. The word anchor means u wanna not let it go out of control because once inflation expectations are rampantly high, it feeds into itself & hard to control.

So at 6.8% & expectations elevated, the Fed needs to act
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
13 Dec
Inflation and central banks. How are we doin'?

What do u think central banks' mandates are? And if so, and if we use data as an indicator or proxy for their success, as in CPI, how would u say they do.

Btw, most have 2% as a target, as in the Fed and the ECB. Global CPI below.
The Fed: 2% CPI target.

US current inflation is 6.8%YoY

How many months since it has been past the 2% target? Well, since March 2021.

Okay, will it fall below anytime soon? No.
Is inflation a tax on the poor? Of course it is. This is US inflation growth and US personal income growth.

The price of goods rises faster than income & so it's a squeeze on consumption. Who has a the highest share of consumption relative to income? The POOR & the middle class
Read 4 tweets

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