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15 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Ouch, China retail sales slowed sharply to 3.9%YoY. Yes, that is a nominal number is very bad. Investment bad too & the %YoY number is negative!!!

Winter is here!

🇨🇳🥶
China Zero Covid strategy biting into retail sales, especially restaurants that went negative.

Tighter liquidity and regulations as well as negative sentiment & hit investment. That went negative on a %YoY basis.

Note that all of this is nominal so real growth is bad in Q4.
China investment here & it shows year-to-date & if u strip to YoY then it's negative. Look at state investment, slowing a lot. Also private.

Next year, gotta bump that state investment in 2022.
Look at transportation investment yoy year-to-date; infra investment dropped to -3.6%YoY. So November was terrible in terms of investment especially infra.

Gotta be better in 2022 by the government & in infrastructure. More easing both fiscal & monetary to boost investment!!!

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
15 Dec
Good morning! Very very busy macroeconomics day! And u know I love it! Okay, let's start with the US as we all care about the Fed meeting at 3am HKT.

PPI was off the chart high at 9.6%YoY and we know that the Fed is now in inflation fire fighting mode 🔥🧑‍🚒🧯 & pushed USD higher
In Asia, before the Fed, we got China data coming out & in November things will feel a bit saggy, which we know that the government is worried about because they already cut the RRR by 50bps to shore up demand.

More to come easing wise, both monetary and fiscal to help the eco!
And tonight, on the back of that gangbuster PPI, we got retail sales, which were pretty strong in October & again good in November.

The Fed meeting is in focus as markets will see how INTENSELY focused it will be on fighting inflation. Tapering to double the pace to USD30bn &
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
14 Dec
You can kill 7 innocent children & 3 adults & not have any consequence whatsoever as it is an "honest mistake." Meanwhile, there's a looming famine in Afghanistan. The US didn't just pull the troops from Afghanistan, it pulled the lifeline of 40m people.

nytimes.com/2021/12/04/wor…
About 75% of the former government’s budget was donor-funded, as was 40% of its GDP.

US sanctions mean that 40% of GDP is not funded as aid money doesn't flow there (no bank would want to touch it).

So just like that, economic freefall & famine looming
voanews.com/a/un-aid-chief…
The US slapped sanctions (+freezing 10bn of reserves) on Afghanistan for obvious reasons - the Taliban took over.

But 40 million people suddenly also don't have means to feed themselves as the aid that they need can't flow.

So now what? People are desperately hungry.
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
14 Dec
Good morning ☀️Asia! Inflation expectations & why does it matter.

First, it is high at 6% in one year according to a Fed survey & twice income gains (expecting only 2.8%).

Meaning, people expect to be relatively POORER & able to purchase fewer goods!!!

So?
Inflation expectations are key to future inflation & that is why the Fed monitors.

People’s expectations lead to reaction. If they think CPI is gonna be 6%, they’d want a raise to feel less poor & so everyone doing so leads to inflation.

So the Fed is worried & should be!
The Fed uses words like anchoring inflation expectations around 2%. The word anchor means u wanna not let it go out of control because once inflation expectations are rampantly high, it feeds into itself & hard to control.

So at 6.8% & expectations elevated, the Fed needs to act
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
13 Dec
Inflation and central banks. How are we doin'?

What do u think central banks' mandates are? And if so, and if we use data as an indicator or proxy for their success, as in CPI, how would u say they do.

Btw, most have 2% as a target, as in the Fed and the ECB. Global CPI below.
The Fed: 2% CPI target.

US current inflation is 6.8%YoY

How many months since it has been past the 2% target? Well, since March 2021.

Okay, will it fall below anytime soon? No.
Is inflation a tax on the poor? Of course it is. This is US inflation growth and US personal income growth.

The price of goods rises faster than income & so it's a squeeze on consumption. Who has a the highest share of consumption relative to income? The POOR & the middle class
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
7 Dec
This news is interesting of Instagram, which is toxic for eve, especially to young girls, as it feeds people sociopathic tendencies - narcissism. Why u say? Well, if Meta acknowledges that it creates toxic content & also has algos to keep people addicted, then the solution is...
We all know what the solution is: JUST TURN IT OFF. Like stop using the very thing that makes you sad, waste a bunch of time and basically turn you into a worse person because let's face it, taking selfies all day long is rather a sad activity.

But no, it's nudging for a break.
But not a real break is it? It says to look at something else on Instagram.

I mean, if you love your children, turn off their social media, that includes Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, Tiktok. Have you seen what they do to little girls & what they do to feel validated?
Read 6 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
7 Dec
Are u ready for some optimism for markets & just life in general? The RBA 🇦🇺, like its government, isn't worried about Omicron as it sees economic recovery even w/ Omicron. Well, bad for bonds but good for outlook! And Indonesia scrapped year-end curbs as vaccination picks up! 🇮🇩
And there is another reason for optimism if u were Australian: China demand of commodity remains high, especially energy. Look at China imports from commodity exporters such as Australia, Brazil, Russia, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and the USA.

And?
All of this commodity import is not just for domestic consumption but also to feed into its manufacturing exports, which continue to be in high demand globally in November.
Read 4 tweets

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