Inflation and central banks. How are we doin'?

What do u think central banks' mandates are? And if so, and if we use data as an indicator or proxy for their success, as in CPI, how would u say they do.

Btw, most have 2% as a target, as in the Fed and the ECB. Global CPI below.
The Fed: 2% CPI target.

US current inflation is 6.8%YoY

How many months since it has been past the 2% target? Well, since March 2021.

Okay, will it fall below anytime soon? No.
Is inflation a tax on the poor? Of course it is. This is US inflation growth and US personal income growth.

The price of goods rises faster than income & so it's a squeeze on consumption. Who has a the highest share of consumption relative to income? The POOR & the middle class
Rich people don't consume much as a share of their income & so ASSET inflation hasn't led to trickle down economics b/c their inflated assets have led them to INVEST more. Smart move but NEGATIVE for trickle down economics.

Inflation is a tax on the poor & middle class.👈

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More from @Trinhnomics

14 Dec
Good morning ☀️Asia! Inflation expectations & why does it matter.

First, it is high at 6% in one year according to a Fed survey & twice income gains (expecting only 2.8%).

Meaning, people expect to be relatively POORER & able to purchase fewer goods!!!

So?
Inflation expectations are key to future inflation & that is why the Fed monitors.

People’s expectations lead to reaction. If they think CPI is gonna be 6%, they’d want a raise to feel less poor & so everyone doing so leads to inflation.

So the Fed is worried & should be!
The Fed uses words like anchoring inflation expectations around 2%. The word anchor means u wanna not let it go out of control because once inflation expectations are rampantly high, it feeds into itself & hard to control.

So at 6.8% & expectations elevated, the Fed needs to act
Read 7 tweets
7 Dec
This news is interesting of Instagram, which is toxic for eve, especially to young girls, as it feeds people sociopathic tendencies - narcissism. Why u say? Well, if Meta acknowledges that it creates toxic content & also has algos to keep people addicted, then the solution is...
We all know what the solution is: JUST TURN IT OFF. Like stop using the very thing that makes you sad, waste a bunch of time and basically turn you into a worse person because let's face it, taking selfies all day long is rather a sad activity.

But no, it's nudging for a break.
But not a real break is it? It says to look at something else on Instagram.

I mean, if you love your children, turn off their social media, that includes Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, Tiktok. Have you seen what they do to little girls & what they do to feel validated?
Read 6 tweets
7 Dec
Are u ready for some optimism for markets & just life in general? The RBA 🇦🇺, like its government, isn't worried about Omicron as it sees economic recovery even w/ Omicron. Well, bad for bonds but good for outlook! And Indonesia scrapped year-end curbs as vaccination picks up! 🇮🇩
And there is another reason for optimism if u were Australian: China demand of commodity remains high, especially energy. Look at China imports from commodity exporters such as Australia, Brazil, Russia, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and the USA.

And?
All of this commodity import is not just for domestic consumption but also to feed into its manufacturing exports, which continue to be in high demand globally in November.
Read 4 tweets
6 Dec
Ahead of Nov CPI release, China cut the well-flagged RRR cut by 50bps to release about CNY1.2trn of liquidity as liquidity starts to tighten. But even w/ this expected RRR cut, equities, both offshore & onshore sagged today on all sorts of issues. HSI was in a world of pain today
CPI is expected to rise in November but inflation is no longer the #1 concern (let's not forget PPI is insanely high in double digits, likely topped though) as growth & specifically liquidity more pressing.

And this leads to widening divergence between China & US monetary policy
US CPI out this week after likely higher China CPI & markets expect it to rise to a whopping 6.7%YoY from 6.2% & give plenty of reasons for why Jerome Powell dropped "transitory" & markets eyeing what the Fed will do on 15 December regarding CPI forecast & hence 2022 expectations
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec
Rule #1: Buy what the Fed buys
Rule #2: Sell what the Fed stops buying

Sincerely,

@Trinhnomics
But note that while earnings are less important these days than the Fed, earnings represent economic fundamentals, as in macro.

And so the Fed can only sell in an upward economy, as in reducing the supply of liquidity when demand is high.

🤗🤗🤗
But the difference between US equities & say, EM Asia, is that US earnings are GLOBAL. US earnings reflect the US strength as well as global demand. When u sell US equities, u don't just sell on the Fed draining liquidity support but also u have to be bearish the US & global econ
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec
It is never too late to make a U-turn on the wrong path, says a Turkish proverb.

And yes, Jerome Powell surprised markets after his Omicron comment (many thinks that is dovish) by speaking hawkishly about pace of tapering picking up!
Inflation is at 6.2%YoY, and no matter whether u think it is transitory or not, it is way past 2% mandate & way higher than zero policy rate.

CPI hasn’t peaked btw. Even if it slows, still high. Look at European CPI.

This isn’t just supply side issues, demand is strong
How do I know that? Very simple, we have the same issues here in Asia regarding supply shocks.

PPI off the chart. Have u seen China PPI?

But CPI weak. Why? Demand has been weak & so outweigh supply side shocks.

US CPI is a combo of demand & supply.

Fed is behind the curve.
Read 5 tweets

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