Thread by @danielgoyal

New: UK Omicron studies suggest certain populations (e.g. fully vaccinated) may have a reduced disease severity vs Delta.

Hope though, that Omicron is “mild” enough to avoid increased Covid admissions and further rationing of non-Covid care for UK is, unfortunately, diminishing.

According to several early studies on Omicron severity: in previously exposed (vaccines +\- infection) populations, hospital attendance may be reduced by around 25% and admission by around 40%.

[The Imperial investigators advise these numbers may change as the wave progresses.]

On an individual risk level, so long as you are up to date with your vaccines it is great news. Your risk of serious disease appears significantly lower. Even for those unable to take vaccines, there may be a reduced severity.

For countries with decent healthcare capacity or reserves this will also come as good news:….perhaps less severe restrictions will be needed.

For countries with saturated healthcare systems it is disappointing news. The likely reduction in hospital admissions is unlikely anywhere near enough to avoid an increase in Covid admissions, and as such, further rationing of healthcare

..if things continue as they are

Should these findings hold over the next few weeks, there are many important questions to be asked…can this tell us how the pandemic may “end”…and if so, will it be possible to see what the ‘best’ way was and learn from it.

For the moment we must ask different questions…

1. Do we have enough space to treat the sick?
2. How do we slow the spread down until we do?
3. Are we ready for the next new variant?
4. How do we make our environments less virus-friendly?

Arguably, one of the greatest mistakes of this pandemic has been failing to plan ahead. We will almost certainly defeat Covid-19, but how much loss we suffer until we do depends on our collective actions and the decisions of those in Leadership. Choose well.