European natural gas prices plummet after hitting record high this week 📉📉

That’s due in part to forecast for mild weather and more LNG deliveries, as well as traders curbing their position on high margin calls

More volatility is expected this winter

news.bloomberglaw.com/international-… Image
Europe is receiving a lot of LNG deliveries as suppliers divert cargoes away from Asia and other regions 🚢

European buyers are willing to pay more than rivals for spot shipments, making it a prime location for suppliers 💰
Despite the massive drop in European natural gas futures over the last two days, prices are still way higher than normal and very expensive for consumers

Until this year, TTF barely broke 30 euros/MWh. Now it is casually trading around 100 euros Image
European natural gas futures extend slump and are trading near a 3-week low 📉📉📉

An outlook for milder weather, as well as a jump in LNG deliveries, has thrown cold water on the record-breaking rally Image
“The European energy complex shows no sign of calming down for the holiday period,” said Timera Energy. “Industrial demand has been struggling in response, with metals and fertilizer producers having to curtail production.”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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More from @SStapczynski

25 Dec
Russian natural gas flows to Europe remain weak 🇷🇺

There were no Gazprom shipments toward Mallnow, a key point on the Yamal-Europe transit route to Germany, for a fifth consecutive day

(Putin says this reflects a lack of requests from European clients)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Russian natural gas flows via Mallnow connection on Poland-German border are zero for sixth straight day Image
Read 6 tweets
21 Dec
🚨EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS PRICES SURGE TO NEW RECORD🚨

Dutch TTF futures topped 162 euros/MWh for the first time. Here are some of the reasons why:

> Lower flows via Russia
> Colder weather
> Nuclear outages
> Very low inventories
> LNG production issues

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
So how did we get here? 🤔

The writing had been on the wall for years

Since there was a lack of investment in 2017-18, supplies were already slated to be tight in the early 2020s

Investments in new upstream gas comes in cycles. And it takes years for LNG projects to start up
To make matters worse, utilities were lulled into a false sense of security in 2018 and 2019 due to milder-than-normal winters

Prices continued to fall due to the persistent supply glut. So utilities doubled down on cheap gas amid a shift away from coal

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 18 tweets
19 Dec
European natural gas traders are waiting for a cold snap that could see prices break new records 🥶 📈

Only a mild winter seems capable of alleviating the stress on the energy market as the world grapples with a fuel shortage

Via @rachelmorison

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The bad news:

The rest of December is set to be colder than usual and this will persist into January with widespread below average temperatures for the first two weeks ⛄️

Frigid cold weather means rolling blackouts could be a last resort ⚡️
Russian natural gas flows remain weak, exacerbating the supply crunch 🇷🇺

If Russian gas exports remain at current levels, Europe’s storage sites will be less than 15% full at the end of March, the lowest on record, according to consultant consultant Wood Mackenzie
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
Russia is willing to boost natural gas supplies to Europe, but only if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline receives regulatory approval to start shipments 🇷🇺 💥 🇪🇺

(Russia had long denied allegations that they were curbing supply in exchange for NS2 approval)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
In exchange for upping supplies, Russia wants to get German/EU approval to begin using the pipeline to Europe, according to people close to Gazprom and the Kremlin

Russia is unlikely to agree to up supplies without assurances that the new pipeline will be allowed to operate
“We’re fulfilling all our contracts, all our obligations. Everything on top of that should be a subject for additional voluntary and mutually beneficial agreements,” said Konstantin Kosachyov, a pro-Kremlin legislator, said in an interview, without specifying what Russia seeks
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep
China, the world’s top coal consumer, is in dire need of more supply and is willing to pay any price 🇨🇳🪨

China has even been boosting coal imports from some of South Asia and Europe’s mainstay suppliers, leaving less fuel for energy-starved rivals

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China has traditionally purchased nearly all of its coal supplies from producers within Asia, but that changed last year when it stopped buying from Australia amid a political dispute between the once-close trading partners, leading to sporadic shortages

smh.com.au/business/marke…
While China mines half of the world’s coal, its supply hasn’t been able to keep up with its breakneck demand

Thermal power generation in the year through August is 14% higher than last year, while coal production is up only 4.4%. So they need more imports to fill the gap
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep
Natural gas prices are SURGING around the world today 🚀📈

🇪🇺 Dutch TTF jumped as much as 12% to above 85 euros/MWh, a record high, after a drop in Russian supply
🇺🇸 US Henry Hub just topped $6/mmbtu for the first time since 2014
🇯🇵 JKM is above $30/mmbtu, a seasonal high
US natural gas prices have surged by more than 10% to as high as $6.280/mmbtu

A close at that level would be the highest settlement since Dec. 2018
Read 6 tweets

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