Gazprom gas supplies from Belarus (Yamal pipeline) to the EU are down by rough 50% in the last week
Meanwhile, the Mallnow point has been flowing in reverse from Germany to Poland. It usually flows the other way
Gazprom and its customers typically arrange a minimal volume that must be supplied and paid for under a pre-set formula that, this year, allowed much lower prices than spot rates
If a buyer wants more gas, they have to pay the prevailing market rate, which is at a record high
Despite the massive drop in European natural gas futures over the last two days, prices are still way higher than normal and very expensive for consumers
Until this year, TTF barely broke 30 euros/MWh. Now it is casually trading around 100 euros
The rest of December is set to be colder than usual and this will persist into January with widespread below average temperatures for the first two weeks ⛄️
Frigid cold weather means rolling blackouts could be a last resort ⚡️
Russian natural gas flows remain weak, exacerbating the supply crunch 🇷🇺
If Russian gas exports remain at current levels, Europe’s storage sites will be less than 15% full at the end of March, the lowest on record, according to consultant consultant Wood Mackenzie
Russia is willing to boost natural gas supplies to Europe, but only if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline receives regulatory approval to start shipments 🇷🇺 💥 🇪🇺
(Russia had long denied allegations that they were curbing supply in exchange for NS2 approval)
In exchange for upping supplies, Russia wants to get German/EU approval to begin using the pipeline to Europe, according to people close to Gazprom and the Kremlin
Russia is unlikely to agree to up supplies without assurances that the new pipeline will be allowed to operate
“We’re fulfilling all our contracts, all our obligations. Everything on top of that should be a subject for additional voluntary and mutually beneficial agreements,” said Konstantin Kosachyov, a pro-Kremlin legislator, said in an interview, without specifying what Russia seeks
China has traditionally purchased nearly all of its coal supplies from producers within Asia, but that changed last year when it stopped buying from Australia amid a political dispute between the once-close trading partners, leading to sporadic shortages
While China mines half of the world’s coal, its supply hasn’t been able to keep up with its breakneck demand
Thermal power generation in the year through August is 14% higher than last year, while coal production is up only 4.4%. So they need more imports to fill the gap
Natural gas prices are SURGING around the world today 🚀📈
🇪🇺 Dutch TTF jumped as much as 12% to above 85 euros/MWh, a record high, after a drop in Russian supply
🇺🇸 US Henry Hub just topped $6/mmbtu for the first time since 2014
🇯🇵 JKM is above $30/mmbtu, a seasonal high