COVID sitrep for Christmas Eve: The huge wave of COVID-19 infections, driven by the new omicron variant, is spreading across the country. Hospital admissions are now rising in London but the good news is we think things won’t be as bad as last winter. 1/12 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-597587…
The wave of infections with SARS CoV-2 is simply huge, passing 100,000 ‘cases’ two days in a row and way in excess of the previous record peak of 81,000 in January 2021. Yesterday 119,000 people tested positive 2/12
Before anyone suggests it, this is NOT simply because we are doing more tests. Firstly, the proportion of tests done which are positive has increased too (blue line in graph). Secondly, people get tested for a reason - symptoms or a covid contact – it’s not random behaviour. 3/12
The omicron wave hit London first. Hospital admissions have increased three-fold since the start of December. These are patients are coming into hospital with covid disease.

Good news is we now expect a worst case peak of half the number of admissions we saw in January 21. 4/12
Another bit of good news is that covid admissions to intensive care in London have not really started to rise. A little early to expect this but maybe just maybe fewer covid patients in this wave are developing life-threatening critical illness... 5/12
...so an early clue that may fit with research out this week suggesting covid due to the omicron variant may be less severe. BUT remember that huge number of infections so we shouldn’t get carried away. The main impact on NHS hospitals is yet to come. 6/12
bbc.co.uk/news/health-59…
The main increase in hospital admissions in London is expected between Christmas and New Year with a peak in the first half of January. The rest of the UK can expect a similar pattern a week or so later. So across the UK, hospital admissions have yet to rise. 7/12
Quick reminder: When do a PCR test for a COVID patient, we only get a positive or negative. The genotyping tests which tell us which variant take longer, so we don’t know in real time whether we are treating omicron or delta, and cannot tell if they behave differently. 8/12
Also on the plus side, we now understand covid really well. We have lots of effective treatments. NHS escalation plans are a tried and tested routine. Staff are well drilled, patient care more efficient. We have good supplies of drugs, PPE and ventilators. 9/12
The biggest reasons to be positive are the huge number of people who have got themselves vaccinated (nine out of ten people) and the care people are taking to keep everyone safe. @ONS data suggest really good compliance with public health guidance. 10/12
But we cannot relax yet. The NHS pressure may not be as bad as last winter, but it’s still REALLY bad. We have lots of staff sickness and we're struggling to deliver ‘routine’ work such as surgery and cancer care. GP surgeries are busy vaccinating us alongside usual work. 11/12
Covid data wont be available over Christmas so don’t expect any major news for a few days. The NHS situation will be difficult but not as bad as last winter. Our individual actions are what keep COVID under control, so please keep up your amazing efforts. #StaySafe 💙 12/12

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More from @rupert_pearse

18 Dec
COVID sitrep: It’s clear to anyone following the news that we are expecting a very large wave of COVID-19 infections, driven by the new omicron variant. Very unwelcome news and we aren’t certain how well vaccination will protect us. Here’s what’s happening in NHS hospitals… 1/14
The first thing to say is that when do a PCR test for COVID, we only get a positive or negative. The genotyping tests which tell us which variant take longer, and we aren't routinely sent them. So we don’t know in real time whether we are treating omicron or delta. 2/14
We are all looking at the graphs of new SARS CoV-2 ‘cases’. Like it or not, we face a huge wave of infections. Yesterday 93,000 people tested positive which is already well past the January 2020 peak of 81,000. 3/14 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 14 tweets
28 Aug
COVID sitrep: The situation in NHS hospitals hasn’t changed much since last week. A worry in itself. The number of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 continues to rise slowly. The current COVID wave now seems certain to combine with winter pressures in November. 1/10
The daily number of COVID infections continues to trend steadily upwards, as does the number of patients admitted to hospital. This means the NHS COVID workload is building. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
It takes a long time to recover from severe COVID. Patients stay in hospital for some time. The NHS workload is best reflected in the number of patients in hospital, which remains high. Even if this turned round soon, many patients would still be in hospital in December. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
21 Aug
COVID sitrep: On call this weekend and the pandemic grumbles on. Where I work in east London we are seeing lots of unvaccinated patients, many needing intensive care. Locally and nationally, hospital patient numbers are rising but slowly. The NHS COVID workload remains high. 1/10
The daily number of COVID infections continues to trend steadily upwards, but the number of patients admitted to hospital is rising more slowly. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The NHS COVID workload is best reflected in the number of patients in hospital which is also rising slowly. Numbers are smaller than the winter peak that caused such huge disruption. In this wave we are dealing with COVID but we’re trying to run all other services as normal. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
14 Aug
COVID sitrep: Last week I reported the news that we feel we’ve passed the high water-mark for this wave in the UK. But this week expert epidemiologists have been discussing how infections are rising once more. So what’s happening on the ground? 1/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
.....this graph helps to explain. The number of COVID infections chatters up and down but the number of patients in hospital (our COVID-19 workload) is currently holding steady. Nothing like the winter peak of nearly 40,000 patients but still a lot of patients to look after. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
This fits with this week’s independent data from @ICNARC which focuses on admissions to Intensive Care. The number of COVID patients in Intensive Care is holding steady (so far). The national picture fits with what colleagues are seeing in hospitals around the UK. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
7 Aug
COVID sitrep: We are now fairly confident we have passed the high water-mark for this latest wave in the UK. Both infection rates and hospital admissions in decline. Good news but the NHS faces several competing major challenges as we look towards another difficult winter. 1/8
The daily number of COVID infections is consistently falling, and now the number of patients admitted to hospital each day with COVID-19 is on a downward trend as well. 2/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Meanwhile, admissions to Intensive Care with COVID seem to be levelling off and possibly even beginning to fall as well. The national picture fits with what colleagues are seeing in hospitals around the UK. 3/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
31 Jul
COVID sitrep: Lots of discussion this week about whether UK COVID infections are falling. The answer is maybe, but this misses the point. We must accept that these waves will come and go. The pandemic is not over, nor is the impact on individuals, the NHS and society. 1/10
If we look at the national COVID positive tests, we might see the suggestion of a downward trend, but the most recent (and so incomplete) data in the grey columns suggest the infection rate is fluctuating. It is just too early to draw any definitive conclusions. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
If we look at Office for National Statistics data, we see infections continue to rise in all four devolved nations (along with hospital admissions and deaths). 3/10 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan
Read 10 tweets

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