COVID sitrep: On call this weekend and the pandemic grumbles on. Where I work in east London we are seeing lots of unvaccinated patients, many needing intensive care. Locally and nationally, hospital patient numbers are rising but slowly. The NHS COVID workload remains high. 1/10
The daily number of COVID infections continues to trend steadily upwards, but the number of patients admitted to hospital is rising more slowly. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The NHS COVID workload is best reflected in the number of patients in hospital which is also rising slowly. Numbers are smaller than the winter peak that caused such huge disruption. In this wave we are dealing with COVID but we’re trying to run all other services as normal. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
At a national level, the number of COVID patients in Intensive Care is holding steady, with just over 850 patients. This seems like good news because it is much lower than the winter peak but this is around a fifth of the national ICU capacity. 4/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
In terms of workload Northern Ireland is currently the worst affected area when we factor in NHS capacity such as ICU beds. Regional hotspots around the UK are putting local NHS services under strain while we try to deliver routine care and a COVID response at the same time. 5/10
The current COVID situation in itself, is manageable, but the NHS challenge is not just COVID. We are trying to clear a backlog of 2.5 million surgeries, respond to unprecedented demands on Emergency Depts, keep hospitals COVID-safe, deal with significant staff shortages….. 6/10
…..handle an epidemic of childhood infections like RSV, all while we are using 10% of hospital beds to treat COVID patients (20% of ICU beds) and have sacrificed another 10% of hospital beds to maintain infection control rules. 7/10
Another worry this week: Supply chain failures have led to a serious shortage in the tubes we use to collect samples for blood tests. We must reduce the number of blood tests to one fifth of usual. Doctors must decide which patients need tests most. 8/10
independent.co.uk/news/health/nh…
These challenges are making life very difficult in the NHS right now. Our healthcare isn’t as available or reliable as normal. Our individual actions are what keep COVID under control, so please get vaccinated and keep up the good work with #HandsFaceSpace & fresh air. 9/10
Meanwhile, the @WHO map for this week: 650,000 new COVID infections per *day*. The UK remains vulnerable as COVID surges back and forth between countries. Global vaccination campaigns are vital for everyone, everywhere. Meanwhile, in the NHS, we have a long winter ahead. 💙 10/10

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More from @rupert_pearse

28 Aug
COVID sitrep: The situation in NHS hospitals hasn’t changed much since last week. A worry in itself. The number of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 continues to rise slowly. The current COVID wave now seems certain to combine with winter pressures in November. 1/10
The daily number of COVID infections continues to trend steadily upwards, as does the number of patients admitted to hospital. This means the NHS COVID workload is building. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
It takes a long time to recover from severe COVID. Patients stay in hospital for some time. The NHS workload is best reflected in the number of patients in hospital, which remains high. Even if this turned round soon, many patients would still be in hospital in December. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
14 Aug
COVID sitrep: Last week I reported the news that we feel we’ve passed the high water-mark for this wave in the UK. But this week expert epidemiologists have been discussing how infections are rising once more. So what’s happening on the ground? 1/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
.....this graph helps to explain. The number of COVID infections chatters up and down but the number of patients in hospital (our COVID-19 workload) is currently holding steady. Nothing like the winter peak of nearly 40,000 patients but still a lot of patients to look after. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
This fits with this week’s independent data from @ICNARC which focuses on admissions to Intensive Care. The number of COVID patients in Intensive Care is holding steady (so far). The national picture fits with what colleagues are seeing in hospitals around the UK. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
7 Aug
COVID sitrep: We are now fairly confident we have passed the high water-mark for this latest wave in the UK. Both infection rates and hospital admissions in decline. Good news but the NHS faces several competing major challenges as we look towards another difficult winter. 1/8
The daily number of COVID infections is consistently falling, and now the number of patients admitted to hospital each day with COVID-19 is on a downward trend as well. 2/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Meanwhile, admissions to Intensive Care with COVID seem to be levelling off and possibly even beginning to fall as well. The national picture fits with what colleagues are seeing in hospitals around the UK. 3/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
31 Jul
COVID sitrep: Lots of discussion this week about whether UK COVID infections are falling. The answer is maybe, but this misses the point. We must accept that these waves will come and go. The pandemic is not over, nor is the impact on individuals, the NHS and society. 1/10
If we look at the national COVID positive tests, we might see the suggestion of a downward trend, but the most recent (and so incomplete) data in the grey columns suggest the infection rate is fluctuating. It is just too early to draw any definitive conclusions. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
If we look at Office for National Statistics data, we see infections continue to rise in all four devolved nations (along with hospital admissions and deaths). 3/10 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan
Read 10 tweets
24 Jul
COVID sitrep: Have been off this week so something slightly different. News stories like this one suggest the number of new infections may be beginning to stabilise. Experience tells us it is far too early to know. 1/10
bbc.co.uk/news/health-57…
When cases passed 60,000 a few days ago we were starting to worry, so it’s good news if this was a one-day spike. If we look back, we can see these are spikes common. It’s too early to know whether this is a genuine fall. The numbers jump up and down for lots of reasons. 2/10
Hospital admission rates are around a quarter of what they were in the winter. We have vaccination to thank for this. But the link is only weakened, not broken. More than 5000 people were admitted to hospital with COVID last week. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
17 Jul
COVID sitrep: As infections rise exponentially the NHS is again reconfiguring for COVID hospital admissions. This week in the hospital where I work we re-opened our temporary ‘surge’ intensive care unit. The link between infection and serious illness is weaker but not broken 1/10
This from a one my nursing colleagues. It is heart-breaking to think we will again see significant numbers of patients in Intensive Care, and more deaths from COVID-19. 2/10
The virus is all around us. >50,000 infections yesterday. This is why so many are being notified of contacts by the NHS app. Frustrating that newspapers casually call this a ‘ping-demic’ as if it were a software glitch. These are real infections; some will cause real deaths. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets

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