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28 Aug, 10 tweets, 5 min read
COVID sitrep: The situation in NHS hospitals hasn’t changed much since last week. A worry in itself. The number of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 continues to rise slowly. The current COVID wave now seems certain to combine with winter pressures in November. 1/10
The daily number of COVID infections continues to trend steadily upwards, as does the number of patients admitted to hospital. This means the NHS COVID workload is building. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
It takes a long time to recover from severe COVID. Patients stay in hospital for some time. The NHS workload is best reflected in the number of patients in hospital, which remains high. Even if this turned round soon, many patients would still be in hospital in December. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Similar picture with Intensive Care. The number of COVID patients in ICU beds is now close to 1000: Just over one fifth of our national ICU bed capacity. Healthcare which is not available for other services such as major surgery. Anxiety about ICU beds is growing. 4/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
We’re now thinking about the inevitable winter pressures. Will the limited public health measures be enough to control seasonal ‘flu and other infections? Will pressures on Emergency Depts ease? Can we maintain other services such as cardiac, cancer and stroke care? 5/10
Some good news about vaccination this week: Research in the UK from @JuliaHCox & team show COVID vaccines are very safe. Side effects do happen but rarely. Meanwhile the same harms (eg thrombosis) occur more often and are more severe with COVID. 6/10
The good news on vaccination safety is important, because we are now beginning to ask the inevitable question: When should COVID booster doses be given? Should we share vaccine doses with less well-off countries first? 7/10
bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
Another reason vaccination is important: A scientific paper out today in @TheLancetInfDis shows a higher risk of hospital admission for unvaccinated people in the UK infected with the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant compared to alpha. 8/10 thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
This week’s @WHO map reminds us that COVID is a global problem. 655,000 new infections per day. Sharing vaccines with other countries seems increasingly important to keep ourselves safe. None of us are safe until we’re all safe. 9/10
Like all of society, the NHS is struggling to find its rhythm. A substantial COVID workload while we are doing our best to run usual NHS services as normal. Lots of challenges in recent weeks. Thanks for your faith and support. #HandsFaceSpace & fresh air #DocsForVax💙 10/10

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More from @rupert_pearse

Rupert Pearse Profile picture
21 Aug
COVID sitrep: On call this weekend and the pandemic grumbles on. Where I work in east London we are seeing lots of unvaccinated patients, many needing intensive care. Locally and nationally, hospital patient numbers are rising but slowly. The NHS COVID workload remains high. 1/10
The daily number of COVID infections continues to trend steadily upwards, but the number of patients admitted to hospital is rising more slowly. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The NHS COVID workload is best reflected in the number of patients in hospital which is also rising slowly. Numbers are smaller than the winter peak that caused such huge disruption. In this wave we are dealing with COVID but we’re trying to run all other services as normal. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
14 Aug
COVID sitrep: Last week I reported the news that we feel we’ve passed the high water-mark for this wave in the UK. But this week expert epidemiologists have been discussing how infections are rising once more. So what’s happening on the ground? 1/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
.....this graph helps to explain. The number of COVID infections chatters up and down but the number of patients in hospital (our COVID-19 workload) is currently holding steady. Nothing like the winter peak of nearly 40,000 patients but still a lot of patients to look after. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
This fits with this week’s independent data from @ICNARC which focuses on admissions to Intensive Care. The number of COVID patients in Intensive Care is holding steady (so far). The national picture fits with what colleagues are seeing in hospitals around the UK. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
7 Aug
COVID sitrep: We are now fairly confident we have passed the high water-mark for this latest wave in the UK. Both infection rates and hospital admissions in decline. Good news but the NHS faces several competing major challenges as we look towards another difficult winter. 1/8
The daily number of COVID infections is consistently falling, and now the number of patients admitted to hospital each day with COVID-19 is on a downward trend as well. 2/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Meanwhile, admissions to Intensive Care with COVID seem to be levelling off and possibly even beginning to fall as well. The national picture fits with what colleagues are seeing in hospitals around the UK. 3/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
31 Jul
COVID sitrep: Lots of discussion this week about whether UK COVID infections are falling. The answer is maybe, but this misses the point. We must accept that these waves will come and go. The pandemic is not over, nor is the impact on individuals, the NHS and society. 1/10
If we look at the national COVID positive tests, we might see the suggestion of a downward trend, but the most recent (and so incomplete) data in the grey columns suggest the infection rate is fluctuating. It is just too early to draw any definitive conclusions. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
If we look at Office for National Statistics data, we see infections continue to rise in all four devolved nations (along with hospital admissions and deaths). 3/10 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
24 Jul
COVID sitrep: Have been off this week so something slightly different. News stories like this one suggest the number of new infections may be beginning to stabilise. Experience tells us it is far too early to know. 1/10
bbc.co.uk/news/health-57…
When cases passed 60,000 a few days ago we were starting to worry, so it’s good news if this was a one-day spike. If we look back, we can see these are spikes common. It’s too early to know whether this is a genuine fall. The numbers jump up and down for lots of reasons. 2/10
Hospital admission rates are around a quarter of what they were in the winter. We have vaccination to thank for this. But the link is only weakened, not broken. More than 5000 people were admitted to hospital with COVID last week. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
17 Jul
COVID sitrep: As infections rise exponentially the NHS is again reconfiguring for COVID hospital admissions. This week in the hospital where I work we re-opened our temporary ‘surge’ intensive care unit. The link between infection and serious illness is weaker but not broken 1/10
This from a one my nursing colleagues. It is heart-breaking to think we will again see significant numbers of patients in Intensive Care, and more deaths from COVID-19. 2/10
The virus is all around us. >50,000 infections yesterday. This is why so many are being notified of contacts by the NHS app. Frustrating that newspapers casually call this a ‘ping-demic’ as if it were a software glitch. These are real infections; some will cause real deaths. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets

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