Thread by @john_lichfield

Weekly French Covid Thread (one day early)

A worrying week and a confusing one. Lots of mixed signals from the French government. “New cases are the worst since the pandemic began…BUT unlike neighbouring countries, we plan no drastic new measures”. Hmm. 1/15

Imagine a very big wave crashing onto a beach and swallowing another big wave cresting ahead of it. That is roughly where we are in France this Christmas. There was an all-time record of 91,608 new cases yesterday – 32% of which MAY be the new Omicron variant. 2/15

Because France has chosen not to invest in rapid ways of variant-spotting, educated guess-work is needed to decide the proportion of O. cases. This week almost 1 in 3 of cases - 32% - lacked the L452R mutation present in Delta. They can therefore be presumed to be Omicron. 3/15

The health minister, Olivier Véran, who was boasting last week that Fr had held back Omicron (based on inadequate stats) now says: “case numbers are the worst since the pandemic began…we will cross the threshold of 100,000 cases a day just after Christmas”. 4/15

The numbers are likely to go much, much higher before they fall. The full force of Omicron has yet to be felt in France. The record case numbers this Xmas are a combination of Delta (high but retreating) and Omega (rising alarmingly fast). 5/15

Acute cases are rising only slowly but they are lagging indicators and so Delta cases. It's possible that O. will cut the % of acute cases but a smaller % of a bigger number is still…a lot. Fr already has 3,200+ acute C19 patients – above the lockdown threshold in the past 6/15

The Fr govt’s wait-and-hope strategy (another raft of decisions is possible on Monday) is based on studies from SA, UK and DK which suggest that Omicron is much more infectious but milder than Delta. Those studies are encouraging but not yet conclusive. 7/15

Some of the recent data from the UK and SA, plotting overall cases against acute cases, now and in the past, is shown in graphs from Le Parisien below. But epidemiologists both in UK/Fr fear Omicron may prove more severe when it reaches older sections of the population. 8/15

An avalanche of mild cases and isolating contacts would in any case produce problems of its own. Experts warn everyday life in France – transport, logistics, health care – could come under severe strain unless isolation rules are relaxed. That’s likely to be agreed on Mon. 9/15

Otherwise, the Fr government says that it has no plans at this stage for curfews or lockdowns, even regional ones. The most that might happen on Monday is the extension of the current night club ban to other public venues. Cinemas? Big sports events? Unclear. 10/15

Is the Fr government right? All its neighbours (other than UK) are taking more drastic action. The official Fr view – influenced by the approach of April’s presidential election? – is that booster jabs and a tightening of the health pass into a vax pass will be sufficient. 11/15

Other measures: the gap between 2nd and booster jabs has been reduced to 4 months from today (a week or so early). The health advisory body recommends a further cut to 3 months. Voluntary vaccination of 5-11 yr old began this week, also a few days early. 12/15

This weeks’ stats.
Patients in acute care were 3,208 last night, 13% up, after 16% last week. Deaths in hosp average 159 a day – up 15% after 17% last week.
The incidence rate is a record 565.2 (cases per 100,000 people/7 days) AND Omicron is only just getting started. 13/15

The booster jab roll-out in France is still doing well. The 20m target was reached several days early. The total now stands at 21,742,825 and is increasing by around 600,000 a day. Health minister Véran predicts over 800,000 a day in the New Year. 14/15

Have a great Christmas and, above all, hang in there.

15/15