$TCEHY announced that they are giving shareholders their ~18% stake in $JD as a special dividend, which is a 3% yield. Shareholders receive one JD share for every 21 Tencent shares they own.
Here’s why this is even better than it might seem at first glance…
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This one off special dividend could potentially be the first of many for Tencent over the long-term. I have seen some commentary online calling this ‘a move out of the $IAC playbook’..
More specifically it’s a homage to the great Barry Diller.
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The idea of this is pretty exciting for $TCEHY shareholders. But probably even more exciting for $PROSY shareholders.
Just to give some context for those who are unfamiliar… Here is the Barry Diller & $IAC playbook in a nutshell:
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1.Target a fragmented market that has high future growth expectations.
2.Use M&A to grow within the market.
3.Scale and build quality businesses.
4.Once a business has low expected IRR or unrealised value, spin off and return capital to shareholders.
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Now that’s certainly an oversimplification and does no justice to how great Barry Diller is as a capital allocator. But hopefully you get the idea.
Now here’s how this could benefit Tencent & Prosus shareholders..
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Tencent has definitely followed the playbook so far. They chose a growing, fragmented market in e-commerce. They bought large stakes in public and private companies like $JD, $PDD, Meituan & KE Holdings whilst growing their own, core e-commerce business.
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Now that the E-commerce market is more mature, particularly $JD as a business. Plus the regulatory uncertainties and crackdowns they face in China..
It seems like a great time to spin-off and return a nice yield to shareholders..
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The additional appeal to shareholders here is that there are plenty of other extremely valuable businesses within the Tencent portfolio that is largely unrecognised by the market.
They have a huge market share in the gaming industry that is full of value.
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Just to name a few potential spin-off contenders that could offer a lot of value to shareholders;
Riot games, Epic games, stake in $SE, Douyu, $ATVI
Then beyond gaming there is stakes in $TSLA, $SPOT $PDD, Nio + a range of different public and private businesses.
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Now for $PROSY shareholders it could be even more appealing. Prosus own 28% of Tencent and their stake in Tencent makes up ~85% of their NAV. They also currently trade at about a 40% discount to NAV.
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This additional capital that Prosus receive from $JD shares or any future special dividends can be directed to two places;
1.Extremely cheap buybacks whilst at a huge discount to NAV. 2.VC portfolio that has a ~18% IRR.
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In summary, after Chinese stocks have been beaten down all year, it’s nice to have an interesting value proposition as a $TCEHY and $PROSY shareholder. I’d like to see more and I’m curious as to how this plays out.
Even if the $JD shares are just a one-off.
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$BABA in their most recent investor presentation reported the China cloud market size in 2020 at $32B of which they have a market share of ~30% which equated to $11B in revenues FY21.
Now here’s where it gets pretty crazy …
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They estimate the China cloud market size in 2025 to be $154B which is a 37% CAGR.
If $BABA maintain ~30% market share that will be $46B in revenues from the cloud business in FY25. Over 4x the current revenue for Alibaba cloud.
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Western cloud businesses like AWS and Azure are valued at ~15x sales or more by most analysts.
An equivalent multiple to $BABA cloud in 2025 would give a value of $693b which is over double the current market cap for Alibaba.
Coverage and commentary on a range of different asymmetric opportunities. Plenty of special situations and illiquid securities. Plus some honest opinions, no holding back.
If you want to take advantage of low prices in China I think $TCEHY is the best bet. $BABA is slightly cheaper, but Tencent is higher quality with better management imo. Both trade at ~10-12x NTM earnings if you back out investments and cash.
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Both have regulatory risks, maybe slightly less so for $TCEHY since they are somewhat globally diversified through the investment portfolio.
$BABA has huge upside (uncertain) with their market leading cloud business. But Tencent could benefit from their own cloud as well.
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$TCEHY core business offers slightly more growth imo. But again, depends on how $BABA cloud works out for overall growth.
If I had to choose, I’d prefer my money with Pony Ma. Although I’ve got a bet on both horses in the race.
I don't personally use or follow a strict checklist. I certainly don't think it could be used as a screening tool. But here are some general criteria I like to see in an investment.
1/ A founder-led/owner operator business with high insider ownership & a focus on long-term, intrinsic value per share growth. Ideally I'd like the CEO to have a majority of their net worth invested in the company.
2/ A sustainable competitive advantage & moat. Preferably in an industry with high barriers of entry, a low cost production advantage & pricing power. Ideally they are able to disrupt the industry.