Thread by @tomi

1/ You might hear about the metaverse daily, but the concept remains confusing.

My framework for the metaverse: “the collective sum of all activity that takes place online” makes its profound impact on the world easy to understand with limited prior knowledge.

2/ Metaverse is sometimes thought of as a rich, seamlessly integrated alternate 3D universe, but that’s unlikely to ever materialize.

However, the Internet today is already facilitating countless meaningful human interactions and experiences that augment/amplify everyday lives.

3/ Life’s various constraints and the increasing convenience of the Internet are continuously driving more and more interactions online.

Online already dominates in quantity, so quality is increasingly going to determine the equilibrium of online vs. in-person interactions.

4/ The Internet has many issues (e.g., harassment), and they can be even worse than in-person.

However, you likely already understand the Internet’s value proposition, and how its reach and connectivity have potential to facilitate valuable interactions and experiences.

5/ The more niche your interests, the less likely it is that others in your physical vicinity share them.

For people struggling to fit in, the importance of finding a sense of belonging online can’t be understated – not to mention those living in oppressed countries or societies

6/ People have enjoyed meaningful experiences and connections with like-minded people online for years and years, and countless effective metaverses (e.g., IRC, Second Life, WoW) long predate the mainstream media’s metaverse interest of recent years.

7/ Spending time online used to be considered anti-social, and having friends you hadn’t met in person was almost a warning sign.

But as smartphones and social media were adopted globally, people began to understand how online interactions could be additive to their lives.

8/ 2020’s COVID lockdowns drove many previously skeptical adults online, essentially normalizing social interactions taking place on the Internet.

Importantly, people also started seeking out more immersive experiences than the already-common FaceTime call equivalents.

9/ The demand for new online experiences opened the floodgates for investment.

Now, all things metaverse are collectively raising billions in incremental capital and attracting some of the most talented engineers globally to work on developing the metaverse.

10/ As more capital is invested to develop better online experiences and complementary consumer tech, the metaverse becomes more immersive and will pass as a substitute for more in-person experiences, allowing for more social interactions and timeshare to move online.

11/ This is a flywheel that increases adoption in a positive feedback loop:

Investment -> more/better experiences -> more people spending more time online -> larger networks to monetize -> more investment...

The more immersive the experience, the better it is as a substitute.

12/ One-on-one online interactions are already convenient, but many group activities remain tricky.

However, once splitting larger crowds into sub-groups and moving between conversations becomes more seamless and convenient, attitudes are likely to (again) shift significantly.

13/ People often criticize online experiences by noting that they’ll never live up to in-person meetings, but convenience and constraints will drive more interactions online regardless.

The Internet offers social alternatives to otherwise solo activities (e.g., TV/movies).

14/ Removing the friction of travel can free up hours to socialize with people you’d otherwise not find time for – taking part in the metaverse can be completely additive.

As a result, aggregate time spent socializing online can multiply at the expense of non-social activity.

15/ One of the challenges holding the metaverse back today is the fragmentation of the Internet, i.e., how hard it is for non-tech savvy people to move from platform to platform, especially while keeping their circle intact.

Fragmentation is a tax on the number of interactions.

16/ Over time, it will become easier to move online experiences and interactions between platforms, somewhat akin to meeting for dinner before a game, and then going to drinks afterwards.

Moving platforms might feel hindersome today, but the experience will continue to improve.

17/ Countless smart people are working to not only improve each experience individually, but also to make the integration of, and transition between them more seamless.

Each development step will further increase the speed of the flywheel, driving more adoption and investment.

18/ Changes in demographics and consumer behavior also help.

As today’s children grow up, used to more activity taking place online and increasingly comfortable with technology, it is possible that fewer experiences need to take place in person to be perceived as meaningful.

19/ The need to earn a living still drives people offline for much of the day, but that is also changing quickly.

As growing demand for online experiences and services drives increasing online supply, more and more opportunities to make a living remotely/online will emerge.

20/ Making a living remotely/online may have sounded dystopian as recently as two years ago, but it is already commonplace for the millions who began working from home during the pandemic.

The economy as a whole is becoming less and less reliant on in-person interactions.

21/ Meaningful improvements in relevant consumer tech (cameras, mics, lighting...) will further help blur the lines between online and in-person experiences.

The Internet, combined with new tech, makes your home the new office/after work spot/restaurant/movie theater/classroom.

22/ The net impact on the world should also be positive – as more of education and work life moves online, the playing field will be leveled among those with access to basic technology.

Over time, this should help reduce inequality and improve quality of life in the aggregate.

23/ No one’s life needs to fully move online, and the level of participation doesn’t need to (and won’t) be uniform across society – to succeed, the metaverse only needs to augment and/or amplify people’s lives with meaningful experiences and human interactions.

24/ No single company can realistically build all the services people seek out online, much like no conglomerate controls all of your real-life experiences.

The metaverse will have to be a distributed collection of best-in-class online services and experiences.

25/ TL;DR: Defined as “the collective sum of all activity that takes place online”, the metaverse is already having a profound impact on the world – and social acceptance, incremental investment, technological improvements and demographic tailwinds will supercharge it.