You need to be very careful when working with big repeat players in any game.

Examples:

- Selling your real estate to a private equity firm or big local investor
- Selling your business to a private equity firm or aggregator
- Suing a big company or an insurance company

1/n
Why do you need to be careful?

Two main reasons:

1. Because this, for them, is a repeat game, they know all the tricks of the trade, literally. They can avoid pitfalls and get you stuck in them, even without your knowing.
2. "But, I have a great broker and lawyer!" - hate to break it to you, but this matters less than you think. When you hire a broker, their first objective to make the deal happen at any cost. The only downside to doing this is their reputation and since you're not a repeat player
the risk to their reputation is moderate compared to the risk of their reputation were they to get aggressive with the repeat player in the game. Plus, they know that you don't know what's going on as well as the counterparty, so they will err on the side of screwing you even
though they work for you. The situation is a bit more complicated with lawyers, who have strict requirements to their clients, but it still happens and it can be worse because you expect it less. Let's say you need a lawyer to get something solved with Amazon or a government
entity. Even if you're totally in the right, if they take an action that they feel will piss the counterparty off they know that every time going forward that they have another client like you their job is going to be harder. yes, there are reputation networks for non-repeat
players in these games, but do they want to develop a reputation as a pain in the ass to deal with with the other side, even if that's the right thing for the client? Further, these intermediaries can switch sides. Do you know how much a client like Amazon or a PE firm can
shower on your intermediary compared to the slog of attracting and selling small fish over and over? It's a big difference.

Not all intermediaries play these games, but a metric shit ton do.

Seller and suer beware.

n/n

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More from @Molson_Hart

26 Dec
There’s a certain type of person who engages in very unfortunate behavior on social media globally. And there are a lot of them. Let’s call them “aggressive conformists”. They mean well but because they’re so vocally conformist, people who hold nonconformist views try to avoid
them, which results in the aggressive conformist, who is often well-meaning, to never realize how big of an impact their behavior has on the debate and other people. I know because I take a lot of nonconformist stances on controversial topics and get dms from people who agree
but will never say so publicly.

Covid, since day one, has repeatedly shown the the mainstream viewpoint whether it is:

1. It’s a flu
2. Blocking Chinese travellers is racist
3. Masks don’t work
4. Lab origin is a conspiracy
5. Vaccines are perfect

And many more…

Has shown
Read 9 tweets
13 Dec
Been saying this a while, but over the weekend I took a deeper dive.

If you're a young man (less than 30) or the parent of one, you really need to investigate the risk of heart issues caused by the vaccine before getting an mRNA vaccine.

People say that covid is more likely to
cause heart issues, but the study that everyone uses to back this up was comparing the rate of myocarditis in people who were hospitalized with covid to the rate of hospitalization for vaccine-caused myocarditis.

That's not the right comparison; you want to compare myocarditis
in everyone who gets covid (included those who do not know or never get tested, which is hard to do!) to the rate of any myocarditis in people who get vaccinated.

Further, if you've already been infected with covid you have stronger longer lasting protection than any vaccine.
Read 7 tweets
10 Dec
Here is my prediction.

This is not a carefully edited thread.

First of all, when I said covid was real people said I was crazy.

Then I said inflation was coming in a big way, and people thought, again, that I was crazy.

I predicted both in the same way. I had early info and
I understood how exponential spread worked and how psychological self-reinforcing inflation cycles worked because I guess I think differently from most people or something.

Anyways, so here is my prediction:
With a democratic legislature through 2022 and and the Fed's head in the sand, we're not going to increase interest rates in a way that is meaningful enough to a reduction in the inflation rate. If you look at wages and the fact there have not been this few job openings since
Read 15 tweets
5 Dec
I don't give money to charity.

I don't like charity.

I think it's massively overrated, especially in the United States.

Here is why:
The stated reason for charity is to help others, but in reality, most charity is actually about helping yourself, eg to signal virtue, repair your reputation, put your name on a building for status, establish that you're ina group, or at best to make yourself feel better.
There are too many tax tricks associated with charity in the United States.

If you make a big cash windfall, set up your own charity, donate all the money to it, and don't pay any taxes until you want to do a withdrawal.

That's not in the spirit of the intention of the law.
Read 14 tweets
5 Dec
Update on the battle between the USA and China for global dominance.

1. China accounts for ~20% of all science and engineering papers globally, more than the US
2. The papers published are increasingly among the most cited in the world, no longer just replication and fraud.

🧵
3. China graduates significantly more STEM PhDs than the United States and the gap is widening.
4. Chinese students who attend foreign universities are increasingly returning to china for work, reversing their brain drain.
5. Chinese universities are increasingly offering big money bounties to attract the best international researchers.
6. For many fields, it is easier to do research in China. No complaints from animal-rights activists, fewer restrictions on private medical data.
Read 8 tweets
4 Dec
Contrary to popular belief, I predict companies will unplug noncritical SAAS services in a recession.

SAAS is mostly cloud based today and the cloud was post 2008. Most SAAS has never seen a recession.

This and SAAS not having reached market saturation make it’s revenue

1/2
appear more stable than it is actually.

If I invent a new product in 1929, it doesn’t matter that 1931 is the depression, I’ll sell more that year than I did during 1929 boom times when our product was barely on the market.

E-commerce grew in 2009 & 2010, consumer spending

2/n
did not.

SAAS, is running out of virgin customers so when a recession hits, the monthly recurring revenue will not pay the saas vendors like first lien debt unless it’s absolutely critical software, which will also take a hit. See SAP’s revenue in 2009.

3/3
Read 5 tweets

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