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Luca Dellanna Profile picture
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28 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I annotated the Great Barrington Declaration.

One would think that the virus wrote it.

1/3
2/3
3/3
4/4

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

Luca Dellanna Profile picture
28 Dec
COVID incidence in Italy maps over incidence two years ago.

Suggesting that:
- herd immunity is still very, very far
- infrastructure* drives outcomes much more than we give it credit

(*demographics, how and where they live, connections, etc.)
This map alone suggests that Sweden having had it relatively easy can in no way be interpreted as “if a country with high incidence had done the same, it wouldn’t have had worse results”

If a country with high virus infrastructure & incidence hadn’t had restrictions, catastrophe
Very important: countries that had been hit lightly have everything to gain competitively to drop all measures compared to countries who got hit hard.

If you’re from the US, UK, South- or Eastern Europe, or any other high-mortality country, don’t be fooled.
Read 4 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
28 Dec
ALL MY 2021 PUBLIC VIDEOS

Ergodicity: an introduction without maths



1/14
The pyramid of feedback​



2/14
A visual framework for antifragility​



3/14
Read 15 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
19 Dec
Yes, it’s a lot of plastic. But I struggle to think of a better way to make a test that can be reliably used by anyone.

Any ideas?
Requirements:
- my grandma must be able to use it
- no risk of false positive following parts reuse
A possible idea. Germany’s bottles recycling system seems a good starting point (when you purchase a bottle, eg water from the grocery store, you pay a $X tax. When you bring it back empty, they must give you the $X back). Ofc should be cleaned/quarantined appropriately.
Read 4 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
19 Dec
The London Ambulance Service operates 450 ambulances; 2500 extra calls a day means an extra ~5 calls per ambulance.

Actually, 100 can’t be operated because staff is sick. So it’s an extra 7 calls per ambulance.

#bottlenecks
Meanwhile, three months ago
The ambulance service asked help to the fire brigades, but their staff is sick too.
Read 5 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
17 Dec
Yes but the baseline before the pandemic was 19% – not much of a change.

Whenever I see pandemic-related suicide statistics, I always check the 2019 baseline, and the upwards changes, if any, are most often a fraction of what the 2021 number alone would imply.
The source for the previous data point Image
I’m not saying that the 1% increase isn’t important, though perhaps it’s noise / due to different sampling.

I’m saying that defaulting to the easy explanation “suicides are because of the restrictions” leads to hiding much the real problems responsible for most of the deaths.
Read 5 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
15 Dec
Simpson’s paradox might have omicron appear less deadly even if it is more deadly
A reader suggested that Tomas chose extreme numbers to "make the Paradox" work. So I repeated the calculation with less extreme numbers, and the Simpson Paradox is still there
It matters! Because if you were already immune, your chances of dying just went up.

(and so did if you weren’t)
Read 4 tweets

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