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Justin McElroy Profile picture
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28 Dec, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Not great that the health authority that already struggled to deal with the logistics of a surge in cases struggles to deal with the logistics of four inches of snow
bc’s big brains have been stymied by long forecasted heat, water and snow events in the last six months

we’re running out of weather to test ourselves on
am I being a bit snarky?

me never

but access to testing, purchasing rapid tests, and getting third doses seems to be the bread and butter of the response in a bunch of places right now

and it's just a different reality in Vancouver
anyhow it's 4pm and the numbers are late
still no numbers, but the B.C. government has just announced a Dix/Henry press conference for 3pm tomorrow

one would expect we will get the details about hospitalizations/testing over the past five days around that time as well

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More from @j_mcelroy

Justin McElroy Profile picture
30 Dec
ALL-TIME RECORD 2,944 official PCR recorded cases of #COVID19 in B.C. today, on a day where we got five days worth of data that is somewhat helpful and somewhat not, which we'll go through now.

Today's chart. Image
Hey look at that spiky tail on the cat! We have lots of thoughts on whether we should bring up cases at all, right?

As we talked about earlier this week, we'll be broadening out.

Here's a new chart looking at cases/million residents compared to hospitalizations. Image
Hospitalizations up slightly over the five days, though not as much as Quebec and Ontario so far.

This can also be seen in new hospitalization entries, where we had 107 in the last five days.

Deaths are now at lowest rolling average since the summer. ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Justin McElroy Profile picture
29 Dec
B.C. will be closing in-person schools for everyone but children of essential workers for the first scheduled week back.

Start of in-person learning will be delayed until January 10th, for most.
For the last year, the B.C. government has been pretty consistent in arguing that schools weren't a vector of transmission, and the science didn't support closing schools before things like restaurants or pubs.

So has the science changed? Or has the politics?
And if the dangers of Omicron are severe that schools need to be closed, why didn't the province expedite boosters for every teacher, or take direct oversight over vaccine mandates, they did with many other public sector jobs in the province?
Read 4 tweets
Justin McElroy Profile picture
29 Dec
B.C. has announced 1,785 new #COVID19 cases, with all the information on hospitalizations, deaths, testing and vaccine shots to come tomorrow.

You can see what is almost certainly an artificial flattening of the curve due to the clawback in testing the last few days.
Because of Vancouver Coastal Health's inability to run the majority of their walk-in testing sites due to mildly below freezing temperatures and four inches of snow, the rolling average for VCH actually appears to be going down at the moment.

It, uh, isn't.
You can report your positive rapid test to the government, but it's not counted in the "official" numbers.

Here is the government's full statement on this.

Read 4 tweets
Justin McElroy Profile picture
27 Dec
hey it's seven o'clock on boxing sunday

let's play everyone's favourite game,

"earnestly responding to strangers who seem to hate me"
so here's why I've led with case counts in these chart threads forever:

- a good proxy for transmission *right now*
- a decently reliable indicator for what will happen to hospitalizations and deaths *in the future*
- a clear way of contrasting what gov. is claiming with reality
In the last two weeks, as case counts went from 300-400 to more than 2000+, I felt it was important to lead with them.

Both because it's important to show how out of control transmission is, and because the government's rhetoric was less than clear.

Read 8 tweets
Justin McElroy Profile picture
23 Dec
A quick note on #COVID19 numbers in British Columbia: I've been told they won't be coming out on the 25th, 26th, 27th, or 28th due to the holidays and associated staffing issues.

Which means when we get numbers on the 29th, it will be five days worth.
When you factor in the rapid growth of Omicron, the delays in testing in Vancouver, and many people on Vancouver Island are being asked to wait 2-4 days to get a test, the numbers on the 29th could be unfathomably high.

However...
What we saw last Christmas was a decrease in testing the days directly around Christmas because people didn't want to get tested so they wouldn't have to cancel plans — but then testing and cases shot up quickly right afterwards.

Which *could* happen again!
Read 8 tweets
Justin McElroy Profile picture
22 Dec
RECORD HIGH 1,474 cases of #COVID19 in B.C. today, a 152% increase from last Wednesday, as Omicron continues to do Omicron things.

Active cases up to 7,253, hospitalizations down to 187, and six new deaths.

Today's chart.
Just 19,949 third doses given in B.C. yesterday (down from last Monday), compared to 208,649 in Ontario, 79,648 in Quebec and 38,295 in Alberta.

The different strategies playing out in clear ways this week.
72% of all cases in the last week in B.C. have been in people with at least two doses.

But when adjusted for population, that still means unvaccinated people have been getting infected at more than double the rate.

And the ratio for hospitalizations is still holding steady.
Read 9 tweets

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