RECORD HIGH 1,474 cases of #COVID19 in B.C. today, a 152% increase from last Wednesday, as Omicron continues to do Omicron things.
Active cases up to 7,253, hospitalizations down to 187, and six new deaths.
Today's chart.
Just 19,949 third doses given in B.C. yesterday (down from last Monday), compared to 208,649 in Ontario, 79,648 in Quebec and 38,295 in Alberta.
The different strategies playing out in clear ways this week.
72% of all cases in the last week in B.C. have been in people with at least two doses.
But when adjusted for population, that still means unvaccinated people have been getting infected at more than double the rate.
And the ratio for hospitalizations is still holding steady.
(How that ratio of hospitalizations changes in the next couple weeks is a critical question for people's risk assessment, and I'll do my best to include that daily for the next bit, along with maybe throwing in a new line graph as well to show changes over time)
As always, hospitalizations and deaths are key assessments, but also lagging indicators.
No movement yet, and let's hope it remains that way.
(Wednesdays have had high number of deaths for several weeks in a row, I think is due to a reporting quirk, so that average is flat)
Couple key data questions that will be helpful for our understanding in this wave:
- What is the difference in cases/hospitalizations by 2nd and 3rd shot?
- If people are sent away from testing sites with a rapid test and are positive, is that added to the list if they report?
I'm asking the government about both of these questions, and I'll let you know if they reply.
And of course data from other countries further along the wave will come in first, which will help.
But for now, we work with the data we have.
Two notes:
1) the BCCDC dashboard has updated and says there were 1,528 cases today, not 1,474, so that's the number I'll be using, as the province said in their release there might be an update.
2) whoo boy that coastal health number
B.C. conducted 16,259 tests yesterday according to the BCCDC, only the 12th highest amount in the pandemic despite a record number of cases.
Given what we've heard in Vancouver and Victoria about testing, safe to say we will have lagging effects in case counts as well.
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A quick note on #COVID19 numbers in British Columbia: I've been told they won't be coming out on the 25th, 26th, 27th, or 28th due to the holidays and associated staffing issues.
Which means when we get numbers on the 29th, it will be five days worth.
When you factor in the rapid growth of Omicron, the delays in testing in Vancouver, and many people on Vancouver Island are being asked to wait 2-4 days to get a test, the numbers on the 29th could be unfathomably high.
However...
What we saw last Christmas was a decrease in testing the days directly around Christmas because people didn't want to get tested so they wouldn't have to cancel plans — but then testing and cases shot up quickly right afterwards.
ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD of 1,308 #COVID19 cases announced for B.C. today, as the rolling average surges 114% in a single week.
Active cases up by about 1,000 to 6,348, hospitalizations up 7 to 192, and one new death.
Today's chart.
up up and away
525 new cases in Vancouver Coastal Health alone today, as the numbers keep going up and up in the Lower Mainland...but Vancouver Island starting to show some real exponential signs as well
As we await the B.C. government's announcement today on expected new #COVID19 restrictions, and consider personal risk assessment in the days ahead, let's do a little thought experiment about cases, hospitalizations, and forecasts.
I'll try and keep it brief!
I find comparisons for B.C. to Norway and Denmark fairly useful.
Why?
They've have had relative success in keeping deaths low, they've avoided massive waves, they have similar vaccine uptake and population size to us.
And they're a week or two ahead on the Omicron curve.
Denmark has more than 10,000 cases a day now.
Norway, more than 5,000.
This doesn't automatically mean British Columbia is going to reach those heights.
But it's a useful proxy for what people should wrap their heads around as a possibility.
It's been three weeks since we did this last, and over that time we've see fairly consistent downward transmission.
The rolling average is now half of what it was at the peak of the 4th wave, active cases down by half as well, hospitalizations down 35%.
For a while, the very depressing and frustrating caveat was that deaths were not following suit, but they are now down to about 4 a day after several weeks of 6-8.
(Put a grimmer way, we're now only seeing three times the per capita deaths of Ontario, instead of 6-7)