A quick note on #COVID19 numbers in British Columbia: I've been told they won't be coming out on the 25th, 26th, 27th, or 28th due to the holidays and associated staffing issues.

Which means when we get numbers on the 29th, it will be five days worth.
When you factor in the rapid growth of Omicron, the delays in testing in Vancouver, and many people on Vancouver Island are being asked to wait 2-4 days to get a test, the numbers on the 29th could be unfathomably high.

However...
What we saw last Christmas was a decrease in testing the days directly around Christmas because people didn't want to get tested so they wouldn't have to cancel plans — but then testing and cases shot up quickly right afterwards.

Which *could* happen again!
All of which is to repeat what we've been saying for the last week: cases will go up massively, other jurisdictions will give strong hints of where we're heading, exact accuracy more difficult than ever right now.

It is frustrating, but the unfortunate reality.
UPDATE: the government phoned me back, and said they are looking at ways to provide data about the deadly pandemic over the four days where no information is currently scheduled.

Unsure if the two people that told me there was no data were wrong, or if government is scrambling.
(we're all having a good time, aren't we)
How is the test-trace-isolate strategy going?

Tests: days to get one on Vancouver Island, people turned away in Vancouver, less rapid tests than anywhere outside Newfoundland

Trace: signs it's already being overrun

Isolate: see above on testing + no Christmas travel ban
Quebec has over 9000 cases today, Ontario nearly 6000, goodness knows lots of places are struggling with the incredible transmissibility of Omicron.

But it feels like if the optimistic projections for Omicron's virulence are wrong, we're in a less than ideal place to respond.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Justin McElroy

Justin McElroy Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @j_mcelroy

22 Dec
RECORD HIGH 1,474 cases of #COVID19 in B.C. today, a 152% increase from last Wednesday, as Omicron continues to do Omicron things.

Active cases up to 7,253, hospitalizations down to 187, and six new deaths.

Today's chart.
Just 19,949 third doses given in B.C. yesterday (down from last Monday), compared to 208,649 in Ontario, 79,648 in Quebec and 38,295 in Alberta.

The different strategies playing out in clear ways this week.
72% of all cases in the last week in B.C. have been in people with at least two doses.

But when adjusted for population, that still means unvaccinated people have been getting infected at more than double the rate.

And the ratio for hospitalizations is still holding steady.
Read 9 tweets
22 Dec
ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD of 1,308 #COVID19 cases announced for B.C. today, as the rolling average surges 114% in a single week.

Active cases up by about 1,000 to 6,348, hospitalizations up 7 to 192, and one new death.

Today's chart.
up up and away
525 new cases in Vancouver Coastal Health alone today, as the numbers keep going up and up in the Lower Mainland...but Vancouver Island starting to show some real exponential signs as well
Read 8 tweets
21 Dec
🚨 B.C.’S NEW OMICRON PLAN IS OUT 🚨

- All indoor organized gatherings (including weddings) banned
- Bars, nightclubs, gyms, fitness centres closed
- Rapid tests expanded in the coming weeks
- Surgeries postponed starting Jan. 4

There is a lot, and I’ll try and break it down
Here is what we know about the new public health orders on gatherings.

Restaurants still open, but six people maximum to a table.

These rules are in addition to the ones announced on Friday.
On rapid tests, the province is expecting to get 700,000 new tests in the next ten days, and hoping for 11 million from the feds in January

Here's the outline of where they will be going

Note: current plan is schools keep going in January
Read 7 tweets
21 Dec
As we await the B.C. government's announcement today on expected new #COVID19 restrictions, and consider personal risk assessment in the days ahead, let's do a little thought experiment about cases, hospitalizations, and forecasts.

I'll try and keep it brief!
I find comparisons for B.C. to Norway and Denmark fairly useful.

Why?

They've have had relative success in keeping deaths low, they've avoided massive waves, they have similar vaccine uptake and population size to us.

And they're a week or two ahead on the Omicron curve.
Denmark has more than 10,000 cases a day now.

Norway, more than 5,000.

This doesn't automatically mean British Columbia is going to reach those heights.

But it's a useful proxy for what people should wrap their heads around as a possibility.
Read 8 tweets
21 Dec
(sigh)

who is ready for even more charts
So, where is this wave picking up fastest right now?

The Lower Mainland, full stop.

Vancouver still exploding, but Fraser Health picking up speed.

Consistent with what we're seeing in other places with Omicron — it's the densest places getting hit fastest (at least for now).
What can we about the vaccine status of people getting Omicron in British Columbia?

Government only provides data on a rolling weekly basis.

But the per capita rate of people with two doses getting infected doubled last week, compared to only going up 20% for the unvaccinated.
Read 8 tweets
27 Nov
who is ready for some charts
It's been three weeks since we did this last, and over that time we've see fairly consistent downward transmission.

The rolling average is now half of what it was at the peak of the 4th wave, active cases down by half as well, hospitalizations down 35%.
For a while, the very depressing and frustrating caveat was that deaths were not following suit, but they are now down to about 4 a day after several weeks of 6-8.

(Put a grimmer way, we're now only seeing three times the per capita deaths of Ontario, instead of 6-7)
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(