A quick note on #COVID19 numbers in British Columbia: I've been told they won't be coming out on the 25th, 26th, 27th, or 28th due to the holidays and associated staffing issues.
Which means when we get numbers on the 29th, it will be five days worth.
When you factor in the rapid growth of Omicron, the delays in testing in Vancouver, and many people on Vancouver Island are being asked to wait 2-4 days to get a test, the numbers on the 29th could be unfathomably high.
However...
What we saw last Christmas was a decrease in testing the days directly around Christmas because people didn't want to get tested so they wouldn't have to cancel plans — but then testing and cases shot up quickly right afterwards.
Which *could* happen again!
All of which is to repeat what we've been saying for the last week: cases will go up massively, other jurisdictions will give strong hints of where we're heading, exact accuracy more difficult than ever right now.
It is frustrating, but the unfortunate reality.
UPDATE: the government phoned me back, and said they are looking at ways to provide data about the deadly pandemic over the four days where no information is currently scheduled.
Unsure if the two people that told me there was no data were wrong, or if government is scrambling.
(we're all having a good time, aren't we)
How is the test-trace-isolate strategy going?
Tests: days to get one on Vancouver Island, people turned away in Vancouver, less rapid tests than anywhere outside Newfoundland
Trace: signs it's already being overrun
Isolate: see above on testing + no Christmas travel ban
Quebec has over 9000 cases today, Ontario nearly 6000, goodness knows lots of places are struggling with the incredible transmissibility of Omicron.
But it feels like if the optimistic projections for Omicron's virulence are wrong, we're in a less than ideal place to respond.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD of 1,308 #COVID19 cases announced for B.C. today, as the rolling average surges 114% in a single week.
Active cases up by about 1,000 to 6,348, hospitalizations up 7 to 192, and one new death.
Today's chart.
up up and away
525 new cases in Vancouver Coastal Health alone today, as the numbers keep going up and up in the Lower Mainland...but Vancouver Island starting to show some real exponential signs as well
As we await the B.C. government's announcement today on expected new #COVID19 restrictions, and consider personal risk assessment in the days ahead, let's do a little thought experiment about cases, hospitalizations, and forecasts.
I'll try and keep it brief!
I find comparisons for B.C. to Norway and Denmark fairly useful.
Why?
They've have had relative success in keeping deaths low, they've avoided massive waves, they have similar vaccine uptake and population size to us.
And they're a week or two ahead on the Omicron curve.
Denmark has more than 10,000 cases a day now.
Norway, more than 5,000.
This doesn't automatically mean British Columbia is going to reach those heights.
But it's a useful proxy for what people should wrap their heads around as a possibility.
It's been three weeks since we did this last, and over that time we've see fairly consistent downward transmission.
The rolling average is now half of what it was at the peak of the 4th wave, active cases down by half as well, hospitalizations down 35%.
For a while, the very depressing and frustrating caveat was that deaths were not following suit, but they are now down to about 4 a day after several weeks of 6-8.
(Put a grimmer way, we're now only seeing three times the per capita deaths of Ontario, instead of 6-7)