1. @latha_venkatesh @_prashantnair . 2022. The Gurus/Experts have all made their Market predictions. Now for some predictions from a layman. Nothing is definite in the markets & life, hence these are only probabilistic scenarios.
2.Most Global Markets including India & the US are likely to drop by 20 -30 % from their peaks of '21. In case of Nifty we could see a worst case of 12800-13000. Bank Nifty likely to fall more than Nifty.
3.Much part of the fall is likely to be front ended. The bulk of the fall likely to happen in the 1st Qtr of CY '22, while the final bottom likely sometime between Oct - Dec quarter. This is a" Stealth Bear" reminiscent of 2010-11 where the Nifty lost 30% over 14 months.
4.The Bear Market will most likely bottom out once IT Index bottoms out. Hence IT index is likely to fall the most in 2022 since it's just now making ATHs (38500 levels)
5. The other sectors apart from IT (especially mid-cap IT) which are likely to underperform the market would be Speciality Chemicals; Autos(4 wheelers);Financials especially NBFCs & PSU Banks. Mid Caps & Small Caps are likely to be hit harder than Mainline Indices.
6. In terms of stocks, the ones who would suffer maximum damage would be : P/E> 50 ; PEG > 3. Price> 3 times in 2021.
7.The recent clutch of IPOs especially those who have no profits & not expected to make profits in the near future are likely to go below issue price & for those already trading below Issue price are likely to lose around 60 % from their ATHs.
8. Rupee is likely to weaken steadily, Precious Metals can start a rally in the second half of 2022. On Oil, I am not very clear on the direction but is likely to be volatile in a big range. 10Y yields in India will continue to rise. RBI will be compelled to hike rates.
9.Cryptocurrencies are likely to "bankrupt" many investors without any recourse for them, since Authorities will wash their hands off leaving the investors to rue their fate. Worse than a Ponzi scheme.
10. The risks to this forecast is i) Inflation drops precipitously. ii ) CBs panic & restart QE all over again
11. 2022 is likely to be one of the BEST years for a Patient & Disciplined Investor. If one continues SIP into value stocks then one is likely to be rewarded with fabulous returns by 2025.
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