Three things were always needed to beat #SARSCoV2: science, solutions and solidarity, says @DrTedros at @WHO presser.
"Science to both understand the pathogen and find solutions to beating it and solidarity to share and deliver those tools wisely and equitably."
@DrTedros@WHO “While science delivered, politics too often triumphed over solidarity”, says @drtedros.
“Populism, narrow nationalism and hoarding of health tools, including masks, therapeutics, diagnostics and vaccines by a small number of countries undermined equity"
@DrTedros@WHO “Misinformation and disinformation, often spread by a small number of people, have been a constant distraction, undermining science and trust in life saving health tools”, says @drtedros.
@DrTedros@WHO "In the huge waves of cases currently seen in Europe and in many countries around the world, misinformation, which has driven vaccine hesitancy, is now translating to the unvaccinated. disproportionately dying”, says @drtedros.
@DrTedros@WHO "I still remain optimistic that this can be the year we can not only end the acute stage of the pandemic, but we also chart a path to stronger health security”, says @DrTedros.
@DrTedros@WHO "This virus will continue to evolve and threaten our health system if we don't improve the collective response”, says @drtedros.
"Delta and Omicron are twin threats that are driving up cases to record numbers, which again, is leading to spikes in hospitalizations and deaths."
@DrTedros@WHO "I'm highly concerned that Omicron, being more transmissible, circulating at the same time as delta is leading to a tsunami of cases”, says @DrTedros.
"This is and will continue to put immense pressure on exhausted health workers and health systems on the brink of collapse"
@DrTedros@WHO "The pressure on health systems is not only because of new #COVID19 patients requiring hospitalization but also a large number of health workers are getting sick themselves”, says @drtedros.
"Public Health and social measures are also needed to stem the wave of infections"
@DrTedros@WHO “I call on leaders of rich countries and manufacturers to learn the lessons of alpha, beta, gamma, delta and now Omicron”, he says
"I want government, industry and civil society to work with us on a campaign that targets 70% vaccine coverage in every country by the start of July"
@DrTedros@WHO “Ending health inequity remains the key to ending the pandemic”, says @DrTedros.
“As this pandemic drags on, it's possible that new variants could evade our countermeasures and become fully resistant to current vaccines or past infection, necessitating vaccine adaptations."
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One of the complexities in talking about #omicron is that we are constantly talking about the variant’s properties on two levels:
in a naive population and in an immune population (in reality many populations with different levels of immunity)
That matters.
Take transmissibility:
It’s been clear from watching #omicron that it spreads faster than delta.
But from the beginning the question has been: Is that because it can infect people delta can’t? Or is it inherently more transmissible?
If you look at the UK’s risk assessment of #omicron for instance, you can see that that question is still not settled:
"there is no clear epidemiological demonstration of transmissibility as distinct from other contributors to growth advantage” assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
“For reasons I may never understand, in January and February of 2020 much of the world seemed not to grasp that the new virus that was spreading so rapidly in China wouldn’t stay in China.”
I feel the exact same way. Hard to imagine I will ever quite understand this…
And remember this in the coming weeks:
“The guiding principle of outbreak response is hope for the best but prepare for the worst. It has felt too often in this pandemic that people are forgetting about the second part of that maxim.”
One month ago, I wrote a first thread on #omicron (before it was called that) and I said we needed patience and we would learn a lot more.
So where are we today?
A quick #omicron thread before I sign off for a few days:
WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED:
A lot of the early fears have been borne out.
The virus is spreading in many countries just as it did in SAfrica.
It clearly has a huge growth advantage over Delta.
It is a lot better at infecting vaccinated and recovered individuals than previous variants.
BUT:
As the virus has spread, we have seen some hopeful signs as well.
We have seen fewer hospitalisations so far than in previous waves.
We have seen a faster than expected turnaround in South Africa.
We have early data suggesting the virus *might* be inherently milder.
Interesting early data on #omicron severity in this preprint from SAfrica.
Main take-away for me still:
Population with high protection from severe disease but low protection from infection means more infections with mild symptoms.
Inherently milder? 🤷♂️
The authors compared SGTF cases with non-SGTF cases during the same time period (1/10 - 30/11).
Remember: SGTF is S gene target failure, the signal in certain PCR tests that is currently used as an (imperfect) proxy for omicron infections.
The authors found that the risk of these likely #omicron cases to end up in hospital was only about one fifth the risk (10-30%) of cases without SGTF (likely not omicron)
But once patients were in hospital, their risk of severe disease was about the same.
"We are clearly in a new and troubling phase of this pandemic. What we have seen so far is sobering but there is still much to learn about Omicron. We cannot afford to cross our fingers and hope this crisis blows over”, @JeremyFarrar writes in a statement just out.
@JeremyFarrar If transmission isn’t slowed, "we could see profound impacts on health systems but also across sectors such as education, hospitality, public transport, police and essential national infrastructure as infections prevent people from working.".
@JeremyFarrar It's "staggering and deeply frustrating that two years into this pandemic – when we have gathered so much evidence and made huge scientific progress – that governments are still not anticipating events and acting early or working together anywhere near the scale that is required"
Gemany’s @rki_de (basically our CDC) just put outs its recommendations for measures to curb #omicron.
Background: Number of delta infections and hospitalisations are declining, but #omicron cases are currently doubling about every 3 days and ICUs still very full.
@rki_de They recommend immediately:
- continuous masking indoors (and outdoors if <1,5 m distance), incl. for vaccinated people and in schools
- closing all bars, clubs, restaurants (except for takeaway), indoor sports
- cancelling large events
@rki_de - 2G+ for cultural events etc (so vaccinated or recovered, and test needed)
- 2G in most shops (only vaccinated or recovered allowed)
- 3G in supermarkets etc (so test needed for those not vaccinated or recovered)
- no singing indoors (for instance in church)