Thread by @chrischirp

I wrote this with @adsquires because next term is coming quickly and we need to plan for how to *minimise* infection in kids & teachers and *minimise* disruption to education.

Govt still not doing anything - so this thread summarises what I am afraid will happen:

1/9

https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1476265134884540417

We've recorded over *1.2 million* infections in 5-14 yr olds in England since 1 Sept 2021. The real number will be much higher.

Over 2,500 6-17 year olds have been admitted to hospital with Covid since then too and ten 5-14 yr olds have died due to Covid. 2/9

Thousands more children are reporting long covid through ONS infection survey.

V big disruption to education, with 1000s of children missing school every day & teachers off sick.

Hardly any under 12s & *fewer than half* of 12-15 yr olds have received a single vaccine dose. 3/9

Many argued high infection was good - that children then have "natural immunity". Bollocks. Omicron can very easily infect those who've been infected before - esp if not vaccinated.

Term finished in Dec with Delta still dominant in schools. Next term, it will be different. 4/9

Children will go back to school with Covid in the community more prevalent than at *any time* in the pandemic. It will be almost all Omicron.

There are no new protections in schools and nowhere near enough vaccination.

We *will* see another large school wave in children 5/9

And by Feb, most teachers and parents will be 10+ weeks or so out from their boosters and we'll see more infections again in the parents of children just as we did in October this year.

It could then feed through to their grandparents and the wider community. 6/9

To minimise disruption to education, I fear govt will be tempted to remove requirement for positive kids to isolate instead of tackling the core problem of high infections.

Even more people will then get Covid - a genuine "let it rip" policy - esp for children. 7/9

Hospital admissions of children - particularly under 5s - with Covid already at record levels.

Our inaction is putting kids and their education at risk.

It puts their families & school staff at risk.

It will prolong our Omicron wave.

It's a really stupid thing to do. 8/9

There are things we could do reduce the risk - but we've left it very late. One of the biggest (giving parents option to vax 5-12 yrs) won't happen for far too long.

Vent & HEPA filters take time but we could start RIGHT NOW.

More in the article.
bmj.com/content/375/bm… 9/9

PS *none* of this is about closing schools - it is *all about* keeping them open.