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Prof. Christina Pagel

16 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read

SHORT THREAD: Some basic musings about hospital admissions and exponential growth.

88K cases reported today - let's assume just under half are Omicron - so ~40K. Delta hospital admissions have been running at about 1.7% of reported cases in last month. 1/5

Let's assume Omicron was half as likely to cause hospital admission as Delta. So 0.8% of reported cases end up in hospital. From 40K cases today that would result 340 admissions.

just FOUR doublings takes you to 5,440 admissions - far higher than last January peak. 2/5

The 40K cases today represent people infected about a week ago. Omicron has been doubling every 2 days. Even if that's slowed this week to 3 days, that's likely 2 more doubling baked into admissions. That means that FROM NOW we there'd be two more doublings exceeding jan peak 3/5

Unless we slow Omicron dramatically and quickly, those two doublings might happen next week, or at a minimum next two weeks. I don't think we can boost our way out in that time frame.

If Omicron is only a quarter as severe as Delta, that just buys us one more doubling time. 4/5

But how many more doublings are in this wave? Maybe it's slowing and 2 more doublings haven't already happened. Maybe it peaks next week. If so, would be bad but NHS could prob cope, but ONLY if rapid decline.

It's *posssible* but it's also crossing your fingers & hoping.

5/6

If it keeps going to 3 doublings things get v v hard. 4+ potential disaster.

So key Q is how many more doublings before wave peaks? So far no sign of slowing.

How much are we willing to bet it's under 3?

This is why I'm so worried for NHS. A potential New Year tsunami. 6/6

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More from @chrischirp

Prof. Christina Pagel

@chrischirp

17 Dec

THREAD: on omicron, UK cases, London & what to do next...

Last post-briefing tweet thread of the year! 1/18

First Omicron... as of 11 December, Omicron was most common in Scotland and England but starting its growth in Wales & N Ireland. With its growth speed, shares of cases will now be much higher in all regions. 2/18

In England, UKHSA "S gene dropout" data shows it was 40% of cases by 13 DEcember. It will be dominant in England by now.

WHO first designated it a variant of concern & named it Omicron 3 weeks ago today. Crazy. 3/18

Read 18 tweets

Prof. Christina Pagel

@chrischirp

16 Dec

Four charts about why boosters can't do everything on their own.

1. There is a massive difference in booster uptake between the most and least deprived areas. And also a massive difference in those entirely unvaccinated.

What is plan to reach them? 1/4

2. There are big regional variations. London has the highest unvaccinated and least boosted population by far. It is also where epicentre of Omicron currently sits. There are far too many vulnerable people left in London. 2/4

3. There are big age differences that will take time to smooth out - even with our current booster acceleration.

In London (below), far too many teens remain unvaccinated and far too few over 50s boosted. 3/4

Read 5 tweets

Prof. Christina Pagel

@chrischirp

12 Dec

THREAD on UK covid situation, Omicron and what's happening...

TLDR: Omicron increasing very fast and we are getting increasing evidence of significant ability to infect previously infected or vaxxed people.

Expect UK response to change rapidly in response. 1/10

First, UK cases are climbing, back to near January pandemic peak levels. Scotland and England are rising fastest in recent days.

In England, London is rising faster than other regions.

Cases highest in 5-14 yr olds but rising fast in 20 somethings recently... 2/10

As of end last week, people in hospital going down everywhere except England, where admissions are now going up, driven by 18-64 year olds.

Unfortunately, if cases go up sharply in next few weeks, admissions will follow. By how much is the question... 3/10

Read 11 tweets

Prof. Christina Pagel

@chrischirp

11 Dec

@BBCNews

Quick thread on some omicron thoughts with @BBCNews today.

1. At population level, Omicron's sheer growth advantage is likely to outweigh any reduction in severity from existing immunity, at least in short term. More covid patient to NHS -> less NHS for everything else.

2. We can do more and we should do more - but how much more is the really hard question.

3. But *when* govt might do something is much harder to answer because Christmas is round the corner. If this were any other time, I suspect we'd there would be more public health measures in place already.

Read 4 tweets

Prof. Christina Pagel

@chrischirp

10 Dec

@SkyNews

THREAD: Am going to post some clips of my interview just now with @SkyNews which hopefully will explain a bit more about omicron, UK and what we can do...

and I address *that* xmas party

1. Is it ok just cos it boosters should protect against severe disease?

2. importance of isolation if you are a household contact! and need for support...

England should follow Scotland in this.

3. And the government will *not* struggle to get measures through - the CRG are a minority and there is a large parliamentary majority for doing more. That is comes from other parties should not stop govt from doing the right things.