Both web3 and the metaverse jeopardize untapping the relevance of crypto: “X as code”:
$BTC: money
$ETH: contracts
Software is eating the world. Eating the web or VR only delays the unavoidable
Relevant: create value, solve problems, do things that matter, fix what sucks,…
Web3 is a terrible choice of name too
Crypto is undoing a lot of the centralization in web 2.0*, and requires technical knowledge. Today, it should be 1.2 IMHO
* Similarly to Jamstack: less PHP, more REST & static pages. Nobody promised linear evolution…
Many people expect crypto will become easier, more polished, and gain mass adoption
It is about freedom & DIY, avoiding intermediaries & centralization, much like GNU/Linux. It's not about getting rich. In fact normally freedom comes at a cost
When mass adoption for GNU/Linux?
It may gain mass adoption in a watered down format, though
Much like Android is to GNU/Linux, hiding root privileges
“Not your keys, not your crypto”
Intermediaries may use it to provide services on top of it for “average users”, eventually for things that matter
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If Sutskever's opinion were not relevant enough, it has been seconded by other famous AI researchers, like Brockman, arguably making a point through example, and not just words
Not enough has been written about how the Dunning-Kruger effect is a self-fulfilled prophecy by the Thomas theorem:
1. Redefining mediocre as excellent
2. Creating a kakonomy (lemons ≻ peaches), with positive feedback loop & Matthew effect
3. Resulting in a race to the bottom
The Matthew effect, e.g. network effect, impedes beating the mediocre, e.g. blub paradox and market dynamics
The peaches result not indistinguishable from the lemons but actually worse, possibly even "harbingers of failure", even at an axiological or first principles level
Differently from other multipolar traps, the main causes are epistemic and the strength of numbers; not a moral hazard. If there is a moral decision, it is beyond the comprehension of the mediocre majority
The few peaches, irrelevant as they may be, face a complicated decision:
Reminder: you need to write about something only if:
- It is new, well founded, ethical, actionable, tested, and working
- Someone interested in it coming from you will find it