Now we'll finally have our new government in the Netherlands (ETA 10 January), with a Minister for Climate and Energy from the @D66 party, I'm rereading the Climate & Energy part of the coalition agreement (kabinetsformatie2021.nl/binaries/kabin…)
Thread.
Thread.
"We strive for the #ParisAgreement goal of max. 1.5°C warming". Good!
"We will raise the 2030 emission reduction goal from -49% to -55%. That's a firm commitment, and to make sure we achieve it, we'll aim our policies at -60% by 2030." Smart thing to do.
"We will raise the 2030 emission reduction goal from -49% to -55%. That's a firm commitment, and to make sure we achieve it, we'll aim our policies at -60% by 2030." Smart thing to do.
"We will also aim for -70% by 2035 and -80% by 2040. For that, we will make preparations to introduce road pricing and to build nuclear power plants."
Road pricing is long overdue, imo.
Road pricing is long overdue, imo.
I'm skeptical about the role that nuclear can play, given the current state of that industry and the economics of capital-intensive units in a system with lots of wind and solar. It is correct that this will not contribute pre-2030.
"Within this term (2022-2025), we will make our energy infrastructure future-proof." That is, umm, ambitious, given the typical timelines of building infrastructure. More on this later.
We're now at around 25% emission reduction (all compared to 1990), and aiming for -49% by 2030. That's 24%-points in 8 years, so -3% per year.
The new policies will aim for -60% by 2030. That's 35 points in 8 years so -4.4% per year.
So we need ~1.5 times current policies ;)
The new policies will aim for -60% by 2030. That's 35 points in 8 years so -4.4% per year.
So we need ~1.5 times current policies ;)
NB That's % of 1990 emissions. Putting those at 100, we're now at 75. So it's more like going from policies that drive down emissions by 4% per year to policies that do 6% per year. Major challenge!
The 11% emission reduction by 2030 from stronger climate policies means around 24 Mton CO₂eq additional emission reduction. A table in the Annex (pp. 46-47) lists the planned measures per sector. It indeed adds up to 22-25 Mton. 
In the electricity sector, 0.5-2 Mton emission reduction by 2030 should result from subsidies for CO₂-free gas-fired power plants.
[Just sticking to the table for now, will add more when I get to the texts about it]
[Just sticking to the table for now, will add more when I get to the texts about it]
In industry, 5-6 Mton emission reduction is to be achieved mostly by increasing the cost of CO₂ emissions* (4 Mton) and energy.
*) won't this already be achieved by the higher EU-ETS prices? I'll check on that when I get there.
*) won't this already be achieved by the higher EU-ETS prices? I'll check on that when I get there.
7 Mton of additional emission reductions by 2030 in the built environment. The big one here (over 40%) is a blending requirement ("20%") for 'green gas' (biomethane) in natural gas.
The emission reduction of 2.9 Mton suggests replacing around 1.6 billion m³ of natural gas.
The emission reduction of 2.9 Mton suggests replacing around 1.6 billion m³ of natural gas.
Other than that: a further shift in taxes from electricity to gas (1.3 Mton), faster insulation of housing association homes and of 'societal real estate' (1 + 1 Mton), and stimulating hybrid heat pumps (0.9 Mton).
In Agriculture and land use, the aim is an (additional) emission reduction of 6 Mton by 2030, mostly as a spin-off of the 'nitrogen package', measures to reduce nitrogen deposition in nature. I hope to find out how this should work, later in this thread.
In mobility the aim is 3-4 Mton of emission reductions by 2030, most of that by changes in car taxes. The aviation tax is expected to bring zero emission reductions, but I think that's because those emissions aren't seen as part of national emissions anyway ;)
Back to the main text, where we read:
"This breakdown (in the table) is indicative. Govt will need to come to an integral package leading to sufficient emission reductions, taking into account carbon leakage, implementability, cost effectivity, and the Dutch economy."
"This breakdown (in the table) is indicative. Govt will need to come to an integral package leading to sufficient emission reductions, taking into account carbon leakage, implementability, cost effectivity, and the Dutch economy."
A Climate Transition Fund of €35 billion for 10 years, in addition to the existing SDE++ subsidy scheme, will help to build the necessary infrastructure (electricity, heat, hydrogen, CO₂), to implement the green industry policy, and to make mobility and buildings sustainable.
Procedures to build new large-scale energy infrastructure are too slow. We will speed those up by a mechanism such as in the Crisis and Recovery Act.
An important condition for ambitious climate policy is having sufficient skilled workers, now and in the coming decades. We will work on training, in co-operation with schools and universities, authorities, employers, and trade unions.
For industry, ambition is to lead in the transition to using clean energy & biobased feedstocks, making 'circular products'. A green industry policy is required, based on robust and binding tailor-made agreements. To strengthen business climate and retain sustainable employment.
We'll conclude binding, tailor-made agreements with the10-20 largest greenhouse gas emitters, and the clusters they are part of. Govt to facilitate new energy infrastructure, agreement on ambitious emission reduction, long-term investments in NL, co-investment in education etc.
Additional CO₂ levy for industry *and* a floor price in EU-ETS (the latter preferably together with neighboring countries). Proceeds to flow back into Climate Fund for making companies sustainable.
Sounds like the additional levy will apply even when the EU CO₂ price is high.
Sounds like the additional levy will apply even when the EU CO₂ price is high.
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