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Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
@CALonghurst
Dec 31, 2021 • 9 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 31, 2021

Remember 2 weeks ago when the wastewater signal predicted an "unprecedented" COVID surge? This is what it looks like @UCSDHealth today 📈

Unroll for NYE predictions for January (bad) and 2022 (good) 🔮

2/ Based on the steep rise and fall of the omicron surge in South Africa, many are predicting the same here. I am less optimistic because the @SanDiegoCounty surge is still ~25% delta, which will drive a longer duration with more hospitalizations 🏥

👉 searchcovid.info/dashboards/omi…
3/ The San Diego COVID surge is still ↑ with @UCSDHealth positivity rates at unprecedented levels, and @SDCountyHHSA reporting almost 6,000 (!) new cases yesterday. And we know this undercounts home testing...
👉 sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hh…
4/ Manual contact tracing cannot keep up → please enable automated exposure notification today!

#CANotify is alerting almost 8 people for every positive test entered over the last 7 days

👉 canotify.ca.gov
5/ Another way to look at COVID rates is with true asymptomatic screening tests in healthy outpatients. Our 7-day average @UCSDHealth is ~3.5%, which suggests at least 1 in 28 apparently healthy San Diegans are carrying #SarsCOV2

6/ Hospitalizations are increasing across San Diego already with over 500 people hospitalized with #COVID19 for the first time in months. I expect more people will hospitalized than last summer, but am optimistic that winter '22 will be lower than winter '21 because vaccines 💉
7/ @CAPublicHealth is worried enough about hospital staffing that they issued an All Facilities Letter (AFL) late last night with new staffing guidelines for COVID positive employees 😨

cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CHCQ/…
8/ On a brighter note, March will mark 2 years of the pandemic, and we will be through this latest surge. I believe the @WhiteHouse and @WHO will use this anniversary to announce COVID is endemic. 🔮
9/ Many will test positive in the coming weeks, and this @washingtonpost article has good advice.

Stay safe, stay masked, and #GetVaccinatedNow

Fin.

washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12…

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More from @CALonghurst

Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Sep 24, 2023
Dr. Joseph Simone first published a set of maxims for understanding academic medical centers in 1999. They are so fundamental we often don’t know when we are stealing Joe’s lines.

Learn more about these famous aphorisms 🧵 (1/16) Image
Joe first published "Understanding Academic Medical Centers: Simone’s Maxims" as a Clinical Cancer Research editorial in September 1999 🧵 (2/16)

👉🏼 aacrjournals.org/clincancerres/…
Image
Highlights of Simone's Maxims - a 🧵(3/16)

Institutions Don’t Love You Back.

"One must keep in mind that institutional relationships are really with persons, who can and sometimes do love you back."

👉🏼 aacrjournals.org/clincancerres/…
Image
Read 16 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Jan 7, 2022
1/ COVID (San Diego) Chronicles - Jan 7, 2022

A possible sign of good news this morning? Our 7-day rolling average @UCSDHealth dropped for the first time to 14.1%. Patient, employee, and student rates are all down, tracking with @NMartinUCSD models

2/ Staffing continues to be a huge challenge with 730
@UCSDHealth health employees newly diagnosed with COVID in the last 7 days; we are managing day-to-day thanks to heroic team members stepping up to help
3/ With 1,414 @UCSanDiego students and 473 campus employees testing positive in the last 7 days, university leadership made the decision to extend virtual learning until late January 👏 sandiegouniontribune.com/news/education…
Read 4 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Jan 6, 2022
1/ COVID (San Diego) Chronicles - Jan 5, 2022

As we exceed 800 patients hospitalized with COVID across @SanDiegoCounty and 8000+ new cases just yesterday (!) how high will we go, and what's next?

A 🧵...
2/ According to @NMartinUCSD, who gave me permission to share her latest model, we will hit peak cases soon, but could see 1500-2500 hospitalizations across San Diego. My guess is that we will not exceed the 1800 of last winter, but time will tell 🏥🔮
3/ Yesterday @UCSDHealth set records for both the highest absolute total tests (almost 8k) and positive results (1,012) of the entire pandemic. On the bright side, the 12% positivity rate will actually drop the 7-day rolling average...
Read 5 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Jan 3, 2022
COVID Chronicles - Jan 2, 2022

@SanDiegoCounty has over 600 individuals hospitalized with COVID - 2nd highest in the state (see fox5sandiego.com/news/coronavir…). We are on a steep trajectory and will soon surpass the peak of last summer's hospitalizations. Why?🧵
2/ First, South Africa and the UK saw fewer hospitalizations with their omicron surge, but ~25% of local cases are still delta according to data from @K_G_Andersen, so we are experiencing a twindemic of sorts.
👉searchcovid.info/dashboards/omi…
3/ Second, most inpatients have not had 2 doses of vaccine, and almost none have received 3 doses. We will be changing the logic of the @UCSDHealth dashboard this week to show booster doses since this is more effective for severe disease
Read 6 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Dec 29, 2021
COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 29, 2021

1/ Y-axis changed just in time for a record high 638 positive tests (16% positivity rate) and a record high >10% 7-day rolling average @UCSDHealth
2/ We are beginning to see a spike in #COVID19 hospitalizations @UCSDHealth, which reflects infections from early or mid-December

👉🏻 cbs8.com/article/news/h…
3/ Virtually all hospitalizations @UCSDHealth for #COVID19 are still for delta variant; SEARCH Alliance data show that 30-35% of @SanDiegoCounty infections continue to be delta.
searchcovid.info/dashboards/omi…
Read 5 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
Dec 27, 2021
COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 27, 2021

1/ As predicted, the omicron variant continues to drive a huge surge in infections with over 14% of @UCSDHealth tests returning (+) the last few days, driving our 7-day rolling average to a record new high for the entire pandemic🦠
2/ We have not seen an impact on hospitalization @UCSDHealth yet, although this is always a lagging indicator. We do expect to see patients with omicron (especially unvaccinated patients) admitted for COVID in the coming days and weeks
3/ The majority of COVID cases diagnosed @UCSDHealth have been patients who are vaccinated, and many are boosted. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely the booster dose is providing additional benefit against omicron infection - we are analyzing our data now and will know more soon
Read 7 tweets

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