Thread by @KShriniwasRao

#Thread
It is the start of the new year & we’re all looking forward to something new. It’s a fresh beginning for #IPL too – new teams, probably last mega-auction, fresh media rights sale. It’s a good time to contemplate what the future holds for cricket! (1/25)

This is completely my POV, based on conversations with industry-heads, general thoughts, and learnings from past. What could cricket look like in a few years from now? And how will that change dynamics of the sport again? Let’s look at it through the lens of IPL. (2/25)

I don’t see the IPL expanding from 10 teams anytime soon. There needs to be regional balance in terms of the allocation of franchises & a market to back it. On that front, I see temporary saturation. Yes, northeast and central India make a case but that must wait for now. (3/25)

I also don’t see this expansion because for IPL to go beyond 10 teams, global pool of players, & more importantly quality of players, needs to improve. Right now, I already fear there isn’t enough quality around for 10 franchise to build up strong squads. It’ll be a fight. (4/25)

IPL will carve out a larger window from international calendar soon. This cannot be stopped, no matter how cagey other cricket boards get. At some point, IPL will grab the entire March window & tournament will become an annual three-month affair. 94 days for 94 matches. (5/25)

BCCI will ensure this more than anything else. In fact, way I see it, BCCI already has already started caring about only 3 things: 1) IPL, 2) World Cups, 3) Marquee Test contests involving Eng, Aus, & maybe SA. Wait for the new FTP to come and it'll show more clearly. (6/25)

BCCI bargaining for a larger window for IPL will have global repercussions because other cricket boards will also seek similar space. Bilateral cricket schedules will disappear. The ICC’s Future Tours Program (FTP) will never be the same. It’s started to happen. (7/25)

Cricket boards will have to fight to sustain / survive. Potentially, bilateral cricket in West Indies, Zim, NZ, Afghanistan, Pak will suffer. Only 3 kinds of properties will sustain – Leagues, ICC events like WC, and marquee Test contests (like Ashes or involving India). (8/25)

All other cricket will have to fight to survive. Remember, the game may not perish in these countries, but commercials will dictate harshly. IPL will become in India what the NBA / NFL is in US – country-specific, fan-specific. Fans alone will dictate that. (9/25)

BCCI & IPL today are like conjoined twins. But imagine one running at speed of Usain Bolt & other running on one leg. The twins will have to separate at some point. The one that’s running faster (IPL) will leave the other (BCCI) behind. Market dynamics will ensure that. (10/25)

Tests in India have not lasted more than 3 days in recent times. Sponsors / advertisers already prefer T20 ahead of ODI. Any industry works on demand vs supply. When BCCI sells the bilateral media rights this year, they already fear if there’ll be takers at present value. (11/25)

If bilateral rights value takes a hit – and I see that happening – the IPL will automatically gain impetus (because the sponsor will partake in a top-dollar exercise). And that’ll mean, IPL imposing itself that much more, potentially heading towards a free-market. (12/25)

In fact, it’s only a matter of time IPL becomes a free-market. And a free-market could potentially lead the cricketer & BCCI to a stand-off. Cricketer may not see logic in signing a central contract and instead want to remain a free agent (it’s big deal in the west). (13/25)

Wait for the day when one cricketer stands up & says, ‘hold on, I’m not signing the central contract’ – the dam will break. It’ll be the beginning of a new world order in cricket. There’ll be too much at stake in IPL. Think of an IPO in future. IPL / teams getting listed. (14/25)

Let’s look at some potential media rights numbers. The BCCI will tender fresh media rights in February. How much you think it’ll go for? Probably around US$5.5 to 6 billion dollars (approx. Rs 40k cr) Check this thread I did in November: (15/25)

https://twitter.com/KShriniwasRao/status/1458764876394860555?s=20

Rs 40k cr (approx. US$6b) for 5 years. That’s $1.2b (approx. 8,000 cr) per year. That means, BCCI will earn Rs 4k cr per year only from IPL media rights. Bilateral revenue, ICC income, sponsors etc – everything separate. Who will eventually get empowered? The player. (16/25)

Check link below. In 2019-20, close to 50% of NBA revenue went to players alone. How much of BCCI revenue goes to players? Close to 25% (26% is reserved). That has to increase. Enough has been spent on quality infra. The future belongs to players. (17/25)
statista.com/statistics/112…

Like a Ronaldo ends up playing for Portugal only when Fifa or Euro arrive, a Virat or Rohit or Pant of the future will turn up for India only when an ICC tournament arrives. Or probably to play a marquee Test series. Else, player will be busy catering to his club. (18/25)

Look at the 10 franchises: You’re looking at 10 unicorns (some way bigger already). They’ll eventually demand a bigger say in the ecosystem. They’ll have their own TV channels. See what football clubs in UK / Europe, NFL / NBA clubs in US do. (19/25)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_te…

In future, franchises will want a say in the distribution of broadcast rights, what time they play their matches, how weekend clashes get slotted. Leading club cricketers will determine this. Cricket could have its own Jordan, Shaq O’Neal, Tom Brady in the making. (20/25)

Indian cricket will also officially go to US some day. Wall Street will play the danseuse luring everyone there. New York Indians, LA Knight Riders, Miami Super Kings, Chicago Challengers – do not discount this thought. It’ll all probably happen this decade. (21/25)

What’ll be the big-picture? – survival of the fittest. The weak (not because of cricket but because of commercials dictating their cricket) will keep fighting battles. Fans alone will dictate this trend. More the number of eyeballs, the more takers there’ll be. (22/25)

Cricket first underwent a sea-change when Kerry Packer arrived. Next, when 1992 WC happened. Next, when T20 got introduced. And finally, when IPL got launched. The next big change will be the ‘free market’. The next disruptor (which actually happened during Packer). (23/25)

Indian fans & industry caters to more than 75% of global cricket viewing & brings close to 80% of game's revenue. Reason? Number of eyeballs India generates and sheer madness with which it loves cricket. This thread is based on that sentiment alone. Sky can be the limit. (24/25)

Those who find sports management / sports marketing etc interesting and are still young, looking to build a future: Start tracking this space now. Start reading up. Invest time in staying tuned with global developments, trends. The future holds a lot. (25/25)