Another (h/t @dgurdasani1 ) study showed that multi-layered measures including mask wearing could reduce the much higher risk among parents of children in full-time in persons schooling back to baseline: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… 3/4
As Nick does point out - quality of masks matter. Van Tam in his RI Xmas lecture pointed out better efficacy of FFP2 masks.
Govt should fund pupils to receive these free on entry into schools. 4/4
PS feel free to share this thread and the evidence with people. But please do NOT use this thread to personally attack Nick.
I know what it's like to be on the receiving end of lots of twitter abuse and it's shit. Don't do it to other people.
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TLDR: things are pretty bad and I'm sad & bewildered at lack of govt action and general levels of hopium. 1/18
First off cases... reported levels in England now more than twice as high as previous peak last January and more than three times higher than at start of December.
Positivity rates are also rising v steeply - testing is not keeping up with cases.
All regions rising fast, London highest and earliest. Do not take London small case drop too seriously - drop in pre xmas tests & positivity still rising. Plus xmas likely to boost again. 3/18
I wrote this with @adsquires because next term is coming quickly and we need to plan for how to *minimise* infection in kids & teachers and *minimise* disruption to education.
Govt still not doing anything - so this thread summarises what I am afraid will happen:
Was going to do a quick pre-xmas thread on where we are but SAGE minutes from their meeting yesterday covers all my points!
So here is a whistestop tour of the main bits
Omicron Growth might be slowing, but only from ~2 day doubling to ~3 day doubling. So still growing fast.
Not clear why growth is slowing: likely combo of more cautious behaviours, Plan B (e.g. work from home), moving to different age groups, more reluctance to test
Number of people in hospital with Omicron doubling every 4 to 5 days – this is rapid and so far they are younger. Also increases in transmission within hospitals. SAGE expects large increase in admissions as older people get infected over Christmas ☹
THREAD on cases, hospital admissions and why so many scientists & NHS leaders are worried.
Case study of London - and what is behind the alarm!
1/10
The key bit is that it takes about 10-14 days from infection to needing hospital. And if you have symptoms, you'll probably test positive 4-7 days into infection.
So there's roughly a week from testing positive to becoming a hospital admission. 2/10
So - cases in London have risen *very steeply* - but *mainly* in the last week. And only in the most recent week has Omicron been dominant.
But cases to 19 Dec (incomplete!) are already more than double previous week. 3/10
Short THREAD on log scales and why I tend not to use them.
I've been criticised at times for not plotting case numbers etc on a log scale. I want to explain why.
TLDR: essentially it's because the burden of covid ill health and on NHS is people not log people. 1/8
When you've got exponential growth (e.g. in new covid cases or hospital admissions, it will be a straight line if you put the vertical axis on a "log scale" (normally equally spaced powers of 10).
Charts show same exponential growth on a normal scale and a log scale. 2/8
Log scales are really useful for e.g:
a) seeing if growth is exponential (straight line?)
b) looking for acceleration or slow down in growth
c) comparing growth between countries at different stages of epidemic 3/8
THREAD: on omicron, UK cases, London & what to do next...
Last post-briefing tweet thread of the year! 1/18
First Omicron... as of 11 December, Omicron was most common in Scotland and England but starting its growth in Wales & N Ireland. With its growth speed, shares of cases will now be much higher in all regions. 2/18
In England, UKHSA "S gene dropout" data shows it was 40% of cases by 13 DEcember. It will be dominant in England by now.
WHO first designated it a variant of concern & named it Omicron 3 weeks ago today. Crazy. 3/18