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Doug Lewin Profile picture
@douglewinenergy
Jan 2, 2022 • 7 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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Grid update: Still extremely low chance of outages. This front is not extreme & won't bring us anywhere close to the 77GW of demand in Feb.

BUT there is a warning sign for future extreme cold: there are 10+GW of thermal plants offline right now.
1/🧵 #txlege #energytwitter
A little more info on that. You can see the amount of outages at the link below. It's updated every hour. (You have to add columns C-F to get total thermal outages).

It adds up to 10,114MW (or 10.1GW) of nuke/gas/coal plants offline right now. 2/

ercot.com/mp/data-produc…
ERCOT forecasters continue to struggle w/ demand on winter mornings. Idk why they continue to miss but ERCOT needs to address this. My guess is that they're undercounting electric heat. Note: FERC & NERC specifically said ERCOT needs to improve this. 3/
Some have noted how low prices are this morning despite moderately high demand. First of all, demand is not that high (53GW). It's less than we had at peak in October or April.

Second, wind is doing quite well this morning.
ercot.com/gridmktinfo/da…
4/
Again, there is an extremely low chance of systemwide outages. There are localized outages (~11k, w/~3k in the Houston area). These are likely caused by high winds. This is one of many reasons why no one should guarantee there won't be outages. Too many variables #txwx #txlege 5/
Peak demand from this cold weather will be tomorrow morning, projected to be 60.4GW but will likely be a bit higher. We should have enough power to meet that easily.

This is *not* an extraordinary, unusual, or extreme cold front. We get these basically every year.
#txwx 6/
The biggest questions as we prepare for potential extreme cold:
1) Why are the projections of demand still so far off
2) Why are there so many thermal plants offline?
After all the inspections, etc., 10GW (15% of the total) is quite high.
#txlege #energytwitter #txenergy
7/End🧵

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More from @douglewinenergy

Doug Lewin Profile picture
Jul 29
The Senate Committee on hurricane preparedness & recovery is about to begin. Here's what I'm looking for today:
-is this a show trial or will they deal with deeper policy issues?
- will the cmte ask tough questions about the $800m (im)mobile generators? (cont.)
#txlege 1/🧵
-will any Senators join Mattress Mack's call for CenterPoint CEO Jason Wells to resign?
-will the Senators acknowledge their own role in the failures leading up to Hurricane Beryl (CenterPoint is a fully regulated monopoly utility, #txlege has lots of control)
#energytwitter 2/
- will Senators ask @PUCTX Chair Thomas Gleeson why the PUC hasn't moved a single dollar of the $900 million #txlege appropriated for microgrids?
- will anyone call for CenterPoint to refund the $50 million in profits they made from the (im)mobile generators? 3/
Read 110 tweets
Doug Lewin Profile picture
Jul 17
"None of those generators have been put in service since CenterPoint first began renting them in 2021." There is a public comment period open now on these unusable $800 million generators. A public hearing will be held if requested by Thursday. #txlege 1/
houstonchronicle.com/news/investiga…
From the article: @CenterPoint told the Chronicle this week that they are “not for rapid response use” and “are not designed to be ‘mobile’,” even though it has repeatedly described them as “mobile” in news releases, regulatory filings and memos to investors. 2/
The docket in which Commission staff has published a proposal and seeks comment is below.

So much good could have been with that $800 million if it had been invested in actual resilience. This is wasteful spending not in the public interest.
#txenergy 3/
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5340…

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Read 12 tweets
Doug Lewin Profile picture
May 7
ERCOT had a slide in which they claimed this was the reason for hot temperatures last summer. They did not cite climate change.
For reference:
And here's the slide. "Why was 2023 so hot?" ERCOT is sometimes a parody of itself.
Read 4 tweets
Doug Lewin Profile picture
Apr 29
Battery storage just passed 2,000 megawatts deployed for only the 2nd time in ERCOT, reaching a record of 4% of total load served. Prices briefly spiked near the max. No emergency declared despite 30,000 megawatts of gas & coal outages, most of which was unplanned. #txlege

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Peak load was only 51,000, nowhere near the April record of 62,000. Reserves briefly dipped below 4,000 nowhere, not particularly close to emergency conditions. To have an emergency, you generally need high demand, high thermal outages, and low wind & solar. Tonight had 2 of 3. Image
Interestingly, ERCOT posted a notice on Friday of possible tight conditions from Monday 8pm to Wednesday 9pm; the notice did not include tonight. It appears tonight was a bigger risk than the next three days though... Image
Read 6 tweets
Doug Lewin Profile picture
Jan 15
Texans have set an all-time Jan. record w/ 70.9 gigawatts today; tomorrow will likely set the all-time winter record (74GW), except for Uri. ERCOT/PUC called for conservation tomorrow. Key times will be 7-9am Monday and Tuesday. (Note these forecasts bounce around a lot.) 1/🧵 Image
Four major factors contribute to the likelihood of rolling outages: demand, gas supply, gas & coal plant outages, & renewable output. So far, gas supply is down ~9%. It was down ~20% in Uri & about 18% in Elliott (Dec. ‘22) nationally (drops are usually larger in the Permian). 2/
Importantly, gas supply interuptions render gas power plants inoperable. This was one of the biggest problems during Uri & was again during Elliott when 127 gigawatts (!) of thermal generation was offline. This @EENewsUpdates piece is a must read. 3/ eenews.net/articles/flood…
Read 9 tweets
Doug Lewin Profile picture
Nov 17, 2023
ERCOT asked for 3,000 megawatts ahead of winter and got bids for 11. Their RFP was ill-conceived & poorly designed. ERCOT & the PUCT have received 100s of comments detailing how to get demand reductions at peak times. It is doable. A quick🧵w/ more here: douglewin.com/p/ercot-calcul…
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ERCOT’s RFP asked for 6-hour duration demand response in the winter. Would you sign up to have your heat turned off for 6 hours in a winter storm? Yeah, me neither. If they want 6-hour demand reductions, they need energy efficiency. #txlege #txenergy 2/
douglewin.com/p/2022-cold-sn…
After the February winter storm caused outages during session, #txlege passed a bill to increase the energy efficiency goal...

...in 2011. (SB 1125)

Nothing in 2021 or 2023. (The Senate passed a bill to increase goals significantly in SB 258; the House did not advance it.) 3/
Read 10 tweets

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